Alert archive / Oklahoma / Mesoscale Discussions in 2016

Mesoscale Discussion 293

March 30, 201612 counties in Kansas; 8 counties in Missouri; 15 counties in Oklahoma

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Mar 30, 2016, 6:22 PM CDT for 12 counties in Kansas; 8 counties in Missouri; 15 counties in Oklahoma. It was in force for 53 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Mar 30, 2016, 6:22 PM CDT (23:22 UTC)
Expired
Mar 30, 2016, 7:15 PM CDT
In force
53 min
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
All 35 counties

Allen County, KS, Bourbon County, KS, Chautauqua County, KS, Cherokee County, KS, Cowley County, KS, Crawford County, KS, Elk County, KS, Labette County, KS, Montgomery County, KS, Neosho County, KS, Wilson County, KS, Woodson County, KS, Barton County, MO, Cedar County, MO, Dade County, MO, Jasper County, MO, McDonald County, MO, Newton County, MO, St. Clair County, MO, Vernon County, MO, Cherokee County, OK, Craig County, OK, Creek County, OK, Delaware County, OK, Mayes County, OK, Nowata County, OK, Okmulgee County, OK, Osage County, OK, Ottawa County, OK, Pawnee County, OK, Payne County, OK, Rogers County, OK, Tulsa County, OK, Wagoner County, OK, Washington County, OK

The radar

The Tulsa radar (KINX), 97 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 23:22 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The watches that followed

Watches SPC issued over any of the same counties within four hours of this discussion.

The nearest sounding before it

Springfield, MO (KSGF), launched 12:00Z, 11.4 hours before the alert went out and 152 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Springfield, MO at 12:00Z on 2016-03-30Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 1 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Springfield, MO at 12:00Z on 2016-03-30The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 565 square meters per square second.19395878Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
1 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL
1102 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
36 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
565 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
625 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.6

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

901 
ACUS11 KWNS 302323
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 302322 
MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-310015-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0293
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0622 PM CDT WED MAR 30 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...NERN OK...SERN KS...FAR SWRN MO AND NWRN AR

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 58...

VALID 302322Z - 310015Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 58
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WIND
GUSTS OVER NRN PORTIONS OF WATCH 58 REMAINS FOCUSED ACROSS SERN KS
AND NERN OK. THIS THREAT COULD EXTEND E OF THE WATCH BY 00-01Z...BUT
IT IS UNCERTAIN IF A NEW WW WILL BE NEEDED.

DISCUSSION...LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS REMAIN THE PRIMARY
THREAT ASSOCIATED WITH SCATTERED TSTMS ACROSS NERN OK AND SERN KS.
THE MOST INTENSE STORM OVER THE PAST COUPLE HRS OCCURRED OVER OSAGE
COUNTY OK...BUT HAS SINCE WEAKENED WITH EWD PROGRESSION INTO A
SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR MASS OWING TO EARLIER PRECIPITATION. BRIEF
UPWARD PULSES IN CONVECTION ACROSS KS HAVE BEEN NOTED...BUT TSTMS
HAVE GENERALLY STRUGGLED TO MAINTAIN A SUSTAINED SVR THREAT THUS
FAR. MORE RECENT DEVELOPMENT HAS BEEN FOCUSED FARTHER WEST ALONG THE
DRYLINE AND THESE STORMS HAVE APPEARED TO BECOME DOMINANT.

LATEST TRENDS SUGGEST CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE PROGRESSING EWD
INTO FAR SERN KS AND NERN OK...AND EVENTUALLY SWRN MO/FAR NWRN AR
AFTER 01Z. AIR MASS RECOVERY IN THE WAKE OF PRECIPITATION MOVING
INTO S-CNTRL MO REMAINS UNCERTAIN...ESPECIALLY WITH THE LOSS OF
DIURNAL HEATING IMMINENT. HOWEVER...AN ISOLATED THREAT FOR PRIMARILY
LARGE HAIL COULD CONTINUE EWD ACROSS THESE AREAS GIVEN THE PRESENCE
OF STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES. STRONG WIND GUST AND TORNADO
POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE RELATIVELY WEAKER GIVEN THE COOL
BOUNDARY-LAYER. IT IS UNCERTAIN IF MORE THAN A LOCALIZED SVR RISK
WILL MATERIALIZE...BUT CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
MONITORED.

..ROGERS/CORFIDI.. 03/30/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...

LAT...LON   37869612 38179511 38259442 38079371 37149387 35839473
            35579560 35579664 36049715 37169705 37869612

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Mar 30, 1:00 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCButler, Cowley, Harper, Harvey, Sedgwick, Sumner2 hr
Mar 30, 1:50 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCButler, Chase, Chautauqua, Cowley, Elk, Greenwood and 9 more8 hr
Mar 30, 2:56 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAnderson, Atchison, Brown, Coffey, Doniphan, Douglas and 12 more2 hr
Mar 30, 3:52 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCAtchison, Brown, Coffey, Doniphan, Douglas, Jackson and 7 more3 hr
Mar 30, 3:54 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCButler, Chautauqua, Cowley, Elk, Greenwood, Sedgwick and 1 more96 min
Mar 30, 11:57 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBarry, Christian, Douglas, Howell, McDonald, Ozark and 2 more63 min
Mar 30, 1:42 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCCallaway, Crawford, Franklin, Gasconade, Jefferson, Lincoln and 13 more2 hr
Mar 30, 2:31 PM CDTTornado WatchSPCMcCurtain7 hr

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Oklahoma, 2016Mesoscale Discussions in Kansas, 2016Mesoscale Discussions in Missouri, 2016Every mesoscale discussion in 2016

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.