Alert archive / Illinois / Mesoscale Discussions in 2016
Mesoscale Discussion 285
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Mar 30, 2016, 1:42 PM CDT for 25 counties in Illinois; 19 counties in Missouri. It was in force for 2 hr.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Mar 30, 2016, 1:42 PM CDT (18:42 UTC)
- Expired
- Mar 30, 2016, 3:45 PM CDT
- In force
- 2 hr
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
- Chance of a watch
- 5%
All 44 counties
Bond County, IL, Calhoun County, IL, Cass County, IL, Christian County, IL, Clinton County, IL, Effingham County, IL, Fayette County, IL, Greene County, IL, Jersey County, IL, Macon County, IL, Macoupin County, IL, Madison County, IL, Marion County, IL, Menard County, IL, Monroe County, IL, Montgomery County, IL, Morgan County, IL, Moultrie County, IL, Pike County, IL, Randolph County, IL, Saint Clair County, IL, Sangamon County, IL, Scott County, IL, Shelby County, IL, Washington County, IL, Callaway County, MO, City of Saint Louis, MO, Crawford County, MO, Franklin County, MO, Gasconade County, MO, Jefferson County, MO, Lincoln County, MO, Maries County, MO, Montgomery County, MO, Osage County, MO, Phelps County, MO, Pike County, MO, Pulaski County, MO, Saint Charles County, MO, Saint Francois County, MO, Saint Louis County, MO, Sainte Genevieve County, MO, Warren County, MO, Washington County, MO
The radar
The St Louis radar (KLSX), 24 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 18:43 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Lincoln, IL (KILX), launched 12:00Z, 6.7 hours before the alert went out and 218 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 0 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- No buoyant parcel
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 1966 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 48 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 454 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 465 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted.
577
ACUS11 KWNS 301843
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 301842
ILZ000-MOZ000-302045-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0285
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0142 PM CDT WED MAR 30 2016
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF ERN MO AND WRL/CNTRL IL
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 301842Z - 302045Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT
SUMMARY...AN ISOLATED LARGE HAIL THREAT SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON WITH ONGOING ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS. DUE TO THE MARGINAL
NATURE OF THE SEVERE THREAT...WW ISSUANCE IS UNLIKELY.
DISCUSSION...WITHIN SWLY FLOW ALOFT...A CLUSTER OF STRONG TO
OCCASIONALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW-AMPLITUDE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS MOVING NEWD ACROSS PORTIONS OF ERN MO/WRN IL AS
OF 1840Z. THIS ACTIVITY IS OCCURRING ABOVE A STABLE LOW-LEVEL
AIRMASS...WITH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 7.0-8.0 DEG C/KM
SUPPORTING WEAK TO MODERATE MUCAPE. GIVEN A UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND
FIELD WITHIN THE UNSTABLE LAYER ALOFT THAT IS ALSO STRENGTHENING
WITH HEIGHT...ISOLATED INSTANCES OF SEVERE HAIL SHOULD BE THE MAIN
SEVERE THREAT OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS ACROSS THE MCD AREA. AS
THESE THUNDERSTORMS MOVE NEWD INTO CNTRL IL...THEY SHOULD ENCOUNTER
INCREASINGLY MARGINAL ELEVATED INSTABILITY...WITH A LESSENING SEVERE
RISK.
..GLEASON/THOMPSON.. 03/30/2016
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...PAH...ILX...LSX...SGF...
LAT...LON 38139245 38909200 39599113 40128991 40118942 39828854
39368828 38308923 37639046 37669217 38139245SPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 30, 11:57 AM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Barry, Christian, Douglas, Howell, McDonald, Ozark and 2 more | 63 min |
| Mar 30, 2:56 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Andrew, Atchison, Bates, Buchanan, Caldwell, Cass and 11 more | 2 hr |
| Mar 30, 3:52 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Andrew, Buchanan, Holt, Platte | 3 hr |
| Mar 30, 6:22 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Barton, Cedar, Dade, Jasper, McDonald, Newton and 2 more | 53 min |
Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in Illinois, 2016Mesoscale Discussions in Missouri, 2016Every mesoscale discussion in 2016
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.