Alert archive / Kansas / Mesoscale Discussions in 2016
Mesoscale Discussion 288
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Mar 30, 2016, 2:56 PM CDT for 4 states. It was in force for 2 hr.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Mar 30, 2016, 2:56 PM CDT (19:56 UTC)
- Expired
- Mar 30, 2016, 5:00 PM CDT
- In force
- 2 hr
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
- Chance of a watch
- 40%
All 48 counties
Adair County, IA, Adams County, IA, Cass County, IA, Fremont County, IA, Mills County, IA, Montgomery County, IA, Page County, IA, Pottawattamie County, IA, Ringgold County, IA, Taylor County, IA, Union County, IA, Anderson County, KS, Atchison County, KS, Brown County, KS, Coffey County, KS, Doniphan County, KS, Douglas County, KS, Franklin County, KS, Jackson County, KS, Jefferson County, KS, Johnson County, KS, Leavenworth County, KS, Linn County, KS, Lyon County, KS, Miami County, KS, Osage County, KS, Shawnee County, KS, Wabaunsee County, KS, Wyandotte County, KS, Andrew County, MO, Atchison County, MO, Bates County, MO, Buchanan County, MO, Caldwell County, MO, Cass County, MO, Clay County, MO, Clinton County, MO, Daviess County, MO, DeKalb County, MO, Gentry County, MO, Harrison County, MO, Holt County, MO, Jackson County, MO, Nodaway County, MO, Platte County, MO, Worth County, MO, Nemaha County, NE, Richardson County, NE
The radar
The Topeka radar (KTWX), 106 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 19:55 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The watches that followed
Watches SPC issued over any of the same counties within four hours of this discussion.
The nearest sounding before it
Topeka, KS (KFOE), launched 12:00Z, 7.9 hours before the alert went out and 75 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 0 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- No buoyant parcel
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 1270 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 38 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 593 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 579 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.1
The text
As transmitted.
509
ACUS11 KWNS 301957
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 301956
MOZ000-IAZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-302200-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0288
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0256 PM CDT WED MAR 30 2016
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF NERN KS...SERN NEB...NWRN/WRN MO...AND
SWRN IA
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 301956Z - 302200Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT
SUMMARY...SEVERE RISK SHOULD SLOWLY INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLE IF THUNDERSTORMS CAN FORM. WW
ISSUANCE IS POSSIBLE.
DISCUSSION...19Z SFC ANALYSIS DEPICTS A 998 MB SFC LOW OVER ERN
NEB...WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SWWD FROM THE LOW ACROSS CNTRL/ERN
KS. A THERMAL GRADIENT/WEAK WARM FRONT STRUCTURE EXTENDS EWD FROM
THE SFC LOW ACROSS CNTRL IA. MOISTURE RETURN ACROSS THE MCD AREA HAS
BEEN MORE LIMITED COMPARED TO LOCATIONS FURTHER S...WITH DEWPOINTS
GENERALLY IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60. VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS
SOME AGITATED CUMULUS ACROSS NERN KS AND SERN NEB AS OF 1945Z
ALONG/JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. WITH THE UPPER TROUGH DISPLACED
WELL TO THE W OF THE SFC LOW...LARGE-SCALE ASCENT SHOULD REMAIN
WEAK/NEBULOUS...LIMITING CONFIDENCE IN THE EVENTUAL COVERAGE OF
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. IF THUNDERSTORMS CAN INITIATE ALONG THE COLD
FRONT...THEY COULD POSE A RISK FOR ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS GIVEN MLCAPE GENERALLY AROUND 500-1000 J/KG AND EFFECTIVE BULK
SHEAR OF 40-50 KT. 18Z SOUNDINGS FROM KTOP AND KOAX REVEAL
VEERED/MODEST LOW-LEVEL WINDS...SUGGESTING THE TORNADO THREAT IS LOW
AT THIS TIME.
..GLEASON/THOMPSON.. 03/30/2016
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...
LAT...LON 38159585 38529628 38659650 39919594 41469614 41659535
41659449 41069410 40049390 38209423 38089507 38159585SPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 30, 1:00 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Butler, Cowley, Harper, Harvey, Sedgwick, Sumner | 2 hr |
| Mar 30, 1:50 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Butler, Chase, Chautauqua, Cowley, Elk, Greenwood and 9 more | 8 hr |
| Mar 30, 3:52 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Atchison, Brown, Coffey, Doniphan, Douglas, Jackson and 7 more | 3 hr |
| Mar 30, 3:54 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Butler, Chautauqua, Cowley, Elk, Greenwood, Sedgwick and 1 more | 96 min |
| Mar 30, 6:22 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Allen, Bourbon, Chautauqua, Cherokee, Cowley, Crawford and 6 more | 53 min |
| Mar 30, 11:57 AM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Barry, Christian, Douglas, Howell, McDonald, Ozark and 2 more | 63 min |
| Mar 30, 1:42 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Callaway, Crawford, Franklin, Gasconade, Jefferson, Lincoln and 13 more | 2 hr |
Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in Kansas, 2016Mesoscale Discussions in Missouri, 2016Mesoscale Discussions in Iowa, 2016Every mesoscale discussion in 2016
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.