Alert archive / Arkansas / Mesoscale Discussions in 2016

Mesoscale Discussion 283

March 30, 20164 states

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Mar 30, 2016, 11:57 AM CDT for 4 states. It was in force for 63 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Mar 30, 2016, 11:57 AM CDT (16:57 UTC)
Expired
Mar 30, 2016, 1:00 PM CDT
In force
63 min
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
Chance of a watch
20%
All 81 counties

Baxter County, AR, Benton County, AR, Boone County, AR, Carroll County, AR, Clark County, AR, Conway County, AR, Crawford County, AR, Franklin County, AR, Fulton County, AR, Garland County, AR, Hempstead County, AR, Hot Spring County, AR, Howard County, AR, Johnson County, AR, Little River County, AR, Logan County, AR, Madison County, AR, Marion County, AR, Miller County, AR, Montgomery County, AR, Newton County, AR, Perry County, AR, Pike County, AR, Polk County, AR, Pope County, AR, Scott County, AR, Searcy County, AR, Sebastian County, AR, Sevier County, AR, Stone County, AR, Van Buren County, AR, Washington County, AR, Yell County, AR, Barry County, MO, Christian County, MO, Douglas County, MO, Howell County, MO, McDonald County, MO, Ozark County, MO, Stone County, MO, Taney County, MO, Adair County, OK, Atoka County, OK, Bryan County, OK, Cherokee County, OK, Choctaw County, OK, Coal County, OK, Creek County, OK, Delaware County, OK, Haskell County, OK, Hughes County, OK, Johnston County, OK, Latimer County, OK, LeFlore County, OK, Mayes County, OK, McCurtain County, OK, McIntosh County, OK, Muskogee County, OK, Okfuskee County, OK, Okmulgee County, OK, Pittsburg County, OK, Pontotoc County, OK, Pottawatomie County, OK, Pushmataha County, OK, Rogers County, OK, Seminole County, OK, Sequoyah County, OK, Tulsa County, OK, Wagoner County, OK, Bowie County, TX, Camp County, TX, Cass County, TX, Delta County, TX, Fannin County, TX, Franklin County, TX, Hopkins County, TX, Lamar County, TX, Morris County, TX, Red River County, TX, Titus County, TX, Upshur County, TX

The radar

The Western Arkansas radar (KSRX), 78 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 16:58 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The watches that followed

Watches SPC issued over any of the same counties within four hours of this discussion.

The nearest sounding before it

Norman, OK (KOUN), launched 12:00Z, 5.0 hours before the alert went out and 254 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Norman, OK at 12:00Z on 2016-03-30Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 571 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Norman, OK at 12:00Z on 2016-03-30The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 328 square meters per square second.1939587897Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
571 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-194 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
612 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
35 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
328 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
351 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
1.2

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

839 
ACUS11 KWNS 301658
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 301657 
MOZ000-ARZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-301800-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0283
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1157 AM CDT WED MAR 30 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL AND ERN OK...NERN TX...WRN AND CNTRL ARKANSAS
AND WRN MO

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

VALID 301657Z - 301800Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...STRONGER CELLS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF WIDESPREAD
ELEVATED CONVECTION MAY PRODUCE A FEW INSTANCES OF HAIL AND POSSIBLY
ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. A WW WILL
PROBABLY NOT BE REQUIRED FOR THIS INITIAL ACTIVITY.

DISCUSSION...WIDESPREAD ELEVATED CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED FROM NERN
TX THROUGH CNTRL/ERN OK INTO ARKANSAS. THIS ACTIVITY IS DEVELOPING
IN RESPONSE TO AN EWD PROPAGATING GRAVITY WAVE AND WITHIN A MORE
GENERAL AREA OF WARM ADVECTION DOWNSTREAM FROM A SUBTLE BUT
PROGRESSIVE LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH OK/NCNTRL
TX. WIDESPREAD CLOUDS HAVE LIMITED BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION SO
FAR...BUT 12Z RAOBS SHOW STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND COLD
TEMPERATURES ALOFT SUPPORTIVE OF A FEW INSTANCES OF HAIL.

..DIAL/THOMPSON.. 03/30/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...

LAT...LON   32649516 33619617 34849724 36409627 36829423 37479124
            34309289 33109398 32649516

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Mar 30, 2:07 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCColumbia, Hempstead, Lafayette, Little River, Miller, Nevada and 1 more83 min
Mar 30, 2:31 PM CDTTornado WatchSPCArkansas, Bradley, Calhoun, Clark, Cleveland, Columbia and 23 more7 hr
Mar 30, 5:06 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCCalhoun, Clark, Columbia, Dallas, Hempstead, Lafayette and 5 more84 min
Mar 30, 6:15 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCArkansas, Ashley, Bradley, Calhoun, Chicot, Cleveland and 17 more90 min
Mar 30, 6:53 PM CDTTornado WatchSPCAshley, Chicot, Craighead, Crittenden, Cross, Lee and 4 more8 hr
Mar 30, 1:42 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCCallaway, Crawford, Franklin, Gasconade, Jefferson, Lincoln and 13 more2 hr
Mar 30, 2:56 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAndrew, Atchison, Bates, Buchanan, Caldwell, Cass and 11 more2 hr
Mar 30, 3:52 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCAndrew, Buchanan, Holt, Platte3 hr
Mar 30, 6:22 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBarton, Cedar, Dade, Jasper, McDonald, Newton and 2 more53 min
Mar 30, 1:00 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAlfalfa, Blaine, Caddo, Canadian, Carter, Cleveland and 20 more2 hr
Mar 30, 1:50 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCCaddo, Canadian, Carter, Cleveland, Comanche, Cotton and 28 more8 hr
Mar 30, 3:54 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBryan, Canadian, Carter, Cleveland, Coal, Cotton and 26 more96 min
Mar 30, 1:57 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBosque, Brown, Callahan, Coke, Coleman, Collin and 28 more63 min
Mar 30, 2:09 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCBosque, Brown, Callahan, Coke, Coleman, Collin and 28 more5 hr
Mar 30, 5:36 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCAnderson, Bell, Bosque, Collin, Coryell, Dallas and 30 more4 hr

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Arkansas, 2016Mesoscale Discussions in Oklahoma, 2016Mesoscale Discussions in Texas, 2016Every mesoscale discussion in 2016

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.