Alert archive / Texas / Mesoscale Discussions in 2016
Mesoscale Discussion 286
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Mar 30, 2016, 1:57 PM CDT for 34 counties in Texas. It was in force for 63 min.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Mar 30, 2016, 1:57 PM CDT (18:57 UTC)
- Expired
- Mar 30, 2016, 3:00 PM CDT
- In force
- 63 min
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
- Chance of a watch
- 80%
All 34 counties
Bosque County, TX, Brown County, TX, Callahan County, TX, Coke County, TX, Coleman County, TX, Collin County, TX, Comanche County, TX, Cooke County, TX, Dallas County, TX, Denton County, TX, Eastland County, TX, Ellis County, TX, Erath County, TX, Grayson County, TX, Hamilton County, TX, Haskell County, TX, Hill County, TX, Hood County, TX, Jack County, TX, Johnson County, TX, Jones County, TX, Mills County, TX, Montague County, TX, Palo Pinto County, TX, Parker County, TX, Runnels County, TX, Shackelford County, TX, Somervell County, TX, Stephens County, TX, Tarrant County, TX, Taylor County, TX, Throckmorton County, TX, Wise County, TX, Young County, TX
The radar
The Dallas/Ft Worth radar (KFWS), 86 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 19:01 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The watches that followed
Watches SPC issued over any of the same counties within four hours of this discussion.
The nearest sounding before it
Fort Worth, TX (KFWD), launched 12:00Z, 7.0 hours before the alert went out and 88 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 1073 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -133 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 594 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 19 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 114 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 160 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 1.7
The text
As transmitted.
354
ACUS11 KWNS 301858
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 301857
TXZ000-302000-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0286
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0157 PM CDT WED MAR 30 2016
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF WRN N TX
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH LIKELY
VALID 301857Z - 302000Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT
SUMMARY...THE SEVERE THREAT ACROSS THIS REGION IS INCREASING...WITH
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN THREATS. WW ISSUANCE LIKELY.
DISCUSSION...CONVECTION HAS RECENTLY INITIATED ACROSS PORTIONS OF
WRN N TX AHEAD OF A SFC DRYLINE. TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE
MID TO UPPER 70S ACROSS THIS REGION...WITH DEWPOINTS IN GENERALLY IN
THE MID TO UPPER 60S. STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES COMBINED WITH THIS
MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS ARE CONTRIBUTING TO STRONG MLCAPE OF
2000-3000 J/KG MLCAPE ACROSS THE MCD AREA. ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED CONVECTION IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE EWD TOWARDS THE
METROPLEX THIS EVENING...POSING MAINLY A LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WIND
RISK GIVEN SUPERCELL STRUCTURES ARE LIKELY. THE TORNADO RISK SHOULD
BE RELATIVELY LIMITED WITH MODEST LOW-LEVEL FLOW PER KDYX VWP AND
18Z KFWD SOUNDING.
..GLEASON/THOMPSON.. 03/30/2016
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...FWD...SJT...
LAT...LON 31920071 33269967 33409789 33809784 33689716 33739669
33659654 33119643 32329670 31569724 31319884 31440036
31920071SPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 30, 11:57 AM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Bowie, Camp, Cass, Delta, Fannin, Franklin and 6 more | 63 min |
| Mar 30, 1:00 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Archer, Baylor, Clay, Montague, Wichita, Wilbarger | 2 hr |
| Mar 30, 1:50 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Archer, Baylor, Clay, Wichita | 8 hr |
| Mar 30, 2:07 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Bowie, Camp, Cass, Gregg, Harrison, Marion and 6 more | 83 min |
| Mar 30, 2:09 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Bosque, Brown, Callahan, Coke, Coleman, Collin and 28 more | 5 hr |
| Mar 30, 2:31 PM CDT | Tornado Watch | SPC | Bowie, Camp, Cass, Franklin, Gregg, Harrison and 9 more | 7 hr |
| Mar 30, 3:54 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Archer, Bosque, Brown, Callahan, Clay, Coleman and 27 more | 96 min |
| Mar 30, 5:06 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Bowie, Camp, Cass, Gregg, Harrison, Marion and 7 more | 84 min |
| Mar 30, 5:36 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Anderson, Bell, Bosque, Collin, Coryell, Dallas and 30 more | 4 hr |
Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in Texas, 2016Every mesoscale discussion in 2016
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.