Alert archive / Maryland / Mesoscale Discussions in 2016
Mesoscale Discussion 149
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Feb 24, 2016, 3:06 PM EST for 5 states. It was in force for 54 min.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Feb 24, 2016, 3:06 PM EST (20:06 UTC)
- Expired
- Feb 24, 2016, 4:00 PM EST
- In force
- 54 min
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
- Chance of a watch
- 95%
All 51 counties
Kent County, DE, New Castle County, DE, Sussex County, DE, Anne Arundel County, MD, Baltimore County, MD, Calvert County, MD, Caroline County, MD, Carroll County, MD, Cecil County, MD, Charles County, MD, City of Baltimore, MD, Dorchester County, MD, Harford County, MD, Howard County, MD, Kent County, MD, Montgomery County, MD, Prince George's County, MD, Queen Anne's County, MD, Saint Mary's County, MD, Talbot County, MD, Wicomico County, MD, Atlantic County, NJ, Burlington County, NJ, Camden County, NJ, Cape May County, NJ, Cumberland County, NJ, Gloucester County, NJ, Ocean County, NJ, Salem County, NJ, Bucks County, PA, Chester County, PA, Delaware County, PA, Lancaster County, PA, Montgomery County, PA, Philadelphia County, PA, Arlington County, VA, City of Alexandria, VA, City of Fairfax, VA, City of Falls Church, VA, City of Fredericksburg, VA, City of Manassas, VA, City of Manassas Park, VA, Culpeper County, VA, Fairfax County, VA, Fauquier County, VA, King George County, VA, Loudoun County, VA, Madison County, VA, Orange County, VA, Prince William County, VA, Stafford County, VA
The radar
The Sterling radar (KLWX), 79 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 20:09 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The watches that followed
Watches SPC issued over any of the same counties within four hours of this discussion.
The nearest sounding before it
Washington/Dulle, VA (KIAD), launched 12:00Z, 8.1 hours before the alert went out and 71 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 2 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- 0 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 433 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 40 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 526 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 627 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted.
370
ACUS11 KWNS 242007
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 242006
NJZ000-PAZ000-MDZ000-DEZ000-VAZ000-DCZ000-242100-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0149
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0206 PM CST WED FEB 24 2016
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF NORTHERN VA/DC METRO AND
MD/DE/NJ/SOUTHEAST PA
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY
VALID 242006Z - 242100Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...95 PERCENT
SUMMARY...UPDATING AN EARLIER MESOSCALE DISCUSSION /145/...A TORNADO
WATCH WILL BE ISSUED SOON ACROSS NORTHERN VA/DC METRO AND PORTIONS
OF MD/DE INTO NJ/SOUTHEAST PA. THE TORNADO RISK WILL CONTINUE WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE/SPREAD NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.
DISCUSSION...THE NEAR-SURFACE FRONTAL WEDGE CONTINUES TO ABATE/SHIFT
NORTHWARD THIS AFTERNOON...WITH A WARM FRONT EFFECTIVELY EXTENDING
FROM THE DELMARVA PENINSULA SOUTHWESTWARD TO SOUTH-CENTRAL VA. AS
ADDITIONAL DESTABILIZATION OCCURS WITHIN A HIGHLY SHEARED
ENVIRONMENT...THE POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES WILL INCREASE/SPREAD
NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. THIS
INCLUDES THE POSSIBILITY OF A STRONG TORNADO OR TWO ESPECIALLY
ACROSS VA AND POSSIBLY INTERIOR MD PORTIONS OF THE WATCH.
..GUYER/GRAMS.. 02/24/2016
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...CTP...LWX...
LAT...LON 38157857 39497736 40587563 40027399 38427505 38027622
38307730 38157857SPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 24, 3:20 PM EST | Tornado Watch | SPC | Kent, New Castle, Sussex | 8 hr |
| Feb 24, 4:46 PM EST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Kent | 89 min |
| Feb 24, 1:18 PM EST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Calvert, Charles, Prince George's, Saint Mary's | 117 min |
| Feb 24, 1:46 PM EST | Tornado Watch | SPC | Dorchester, Somerset, Wicomico, Worcester | 9 hr |
| Feb 24, 6:40 PM EST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Charles, Saint Mary's | 2 hr |
| Feb 24, 6:46 PM EST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Bergen, Essex, Hudson, Hunterdon, Middlesex, Morris and 5 more | 119 min |
| Feb 24, 8:14 AM EST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Dickenson, Lee, Russell, Scott, Washington, Wise and 2 more | 2 hr |
| Feb 24, 10:46 AM EST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Halifax, Henry, Patrick, Pittsylvania, City of Danville, City of Martinsville | 119 min |
| Feb 24, 11:16 AM EST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | City of Suffolk | 89 min |
| Feb 24, 2:55 PM EST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Mecklenburg, City of Danville | 95 min |
Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in Maryland, 2016Mesoscale Discussions in Virginia, 2016Mesoscale Discussions in New Jersey, 2016Every mesoscale discussion in 2016
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.