Alert archive / Virginia / Mesoscale Discussions in 2016

Mesoscale Discussion 150

February 24, 20165 states

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Feb 24, 2016, 4:46 PM EST for 5 states. It was in force for 89 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Feb 24, 2016, 4:46 PM EST (21:46 UTC)
Expired
Feb 24, 2016, 6:15 PM EST
In force
89 min
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
All 130 counties

Kent County, DE, Anne Arundel County, MD, Baltimore County, MD, Calvert County, MD, Caroline County, MD, Charles County, MD, City of Baltimore, MD, Dorchester County, MD, Harford County, MD, Howard County, MD, Kent County, MD, Montgomery County, MD, Prince George's County, MD, Queen Anne's County, MD, Saint Mary's County, MD, Somerset County, MD, Talbot County, MD, Wicomico County, MD, Beaufort County, NC, Bertie County, NC, Bladen County, NC, Camden County, NC, Chatham County, NC, Chowan County, NC, Craven County, NC, Cumberland County, NC, Duplin County, NC, Durham County, NC, Edgecombe County, NC, Franklin County, NC, Gates County, NC, Granville County, NC, Greene County, NC, Halifax County, NC, Harnett County, NC, Hertford County, NC, Hoke County, NC, Johnston County, NC, Jones County, NC, Lee County, NC, Lenoir County, NC, Martin County, NC, Moore County, NC, Nash County, NC, Northampton County, NC, Orange County, NC, Pasquotank County, NC, Perquimans County, NC, Person County, NC, Pitt County, NC, Robeson County, NC, Sampson County, NC, Scotland County, NC, Vance County, NC, Wake County, NC, Warren County, NC, Washington County, NC, Wayne County, NC, Wilson County, NC, Dillon County, SC, Marlboro County, SC, Accomack County, VA, Amelia County, VA, Arlington County, VA, Brunswick County, VA, Caroline County, VA, Charles City County, VA, Charlotte County, VA, Chesterfield County, VA, City of Alexandria, VA, City of Chesapeake, VA, City of Colonial Heights, VA, City of Emporia, VA, City of Fairfax, VA, City of Falls Church, VA, City of Franklin, VA, City of Fredericksburg, VA, City of Hampton, VA, City of Hopewell, VA, City of Manassas, VA, City of Manassas Park, VA, City of Newport News, VA, City of Norfolk, VA, City of Petersburg, VA, City of Poquoson, VA, City of Portsmouth, VA, City of Richmond, VA, City of Suffolk, VA, City of Virginia Beach, VA, City of Williamsburg, VA, Culpeper County, VA, Cumberland County, VA, Dinwiddie County, VA, Essex County, VA, Fairfax County, VA, Fauquier County, VA, Fluvanna County, VA, Gloucester County, VA, Goochland County, VA, Greensville County, VA, Hanover County, VA, Henrico County, VA, Isle of Wight County, VA, James City County, VA, King and Queen County, VA, King George County, VA, King William County, VA, Lancaster County, VA, Louisa County, VA, Lunenburg County, VA, Mathews County, VA, Mecklenburg County, VA, Middlesex County, VA, New Kent County, VA, Northampton County, VA, Northumberland County, VA, Nottoway County, VA, Orange County, VA, Powhatan County, VA, Prince Edward County, VA, Prince George County, VA, Prince William County, VA, Richmond County, VA, Southampton County, VA, Spotsylvania County, VA, Stafford County, VA, Surry County, VA, Sussex County, VA, Westmoreland County, VA, York County, VA

The radar

The Norfolk radar (KAKQ), 67 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 21:48 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The watches that followed

Watches SPC issued over any of the same counties within four hours of this discussion.

The nearest sounding before it

Roanoke, VA (KRNK), launched 12:00Z, 9.8 hours before the alert went out and 156 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Roanoke, VA at 12:00Z on 2016-02-24Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 0 joules per kilogram.LCL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Roanoke, VA at 12:00Z on 2016-02-24The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 828 square meters per square second.1939587897Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL
465 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
58 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
828 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
913 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

750 
ACUS11 KWNS 242147
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 242146 
NJZ000-MDZ000-DEZ000-VAZ000-NCZ000-DCZ000-SCZ000-242315-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0150
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0346 PM CST WED FEB 24 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...NC/SC PIEDMONT AND MUCH OF VA/DE/MD

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 26...27...28...

VALID 242146Z - 242315Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH
26...27...28...CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...THE POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES...INCLUDING A STRONG TORNADO
RISK...WILL BE MAXIMIZED THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING FROM
NORTH-CENTRAL NC/SOUTH-CENTRAL VA NORTHEASTWARD TO MUCH OF EASTERN
VA/MD INCLUDING THE I-85/I-95 CORRIDORS. TORNADO WATCHES 26/27/28
CONTINUE UNTIL 7PM/9PM/11PM EST RESPECTIVELY.

DISCUSSION...AS OF 21Z...A NORTH/NORTHEASTWARD-SHIFTING WARM FRONT
NOW EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL NJ SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS SOUTHEAST
PA/CENTRAL MD AND NEAR THE DC VICINITY...SOUTHWESTWARD TO BETWEEN
THE CHARLOTTESVILLE/FARMVILLE VA AREAS. ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF
VA/DELMARVA PENINSULA...A TORNADO/WIND DAMAGE RISK WILL CONTINUE AT
LEAST ON AN ISOLATED BASIS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AS STORMS
CONTINUE TO RACE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD IN NEAR-COASTAL AREAS.

OTHERWISE...A MORE CONCENTRATED/HIGHER PROBABILITY TORNADO SCENARIO
IS STEADILY APPROACHING ITS PEAK LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
EVENING FROM THE NC PIEDMONT /INCLUDING THE RALEIGH VICINITY/ AND
CENTRAL VA TO EASTERN PORTIONS OF VA/MD COINCIDENT WITH A BROKEN
BAND OF INCREASINGLY INTENSE CONVECTION INCLUDING SOME EMBEDDED
STRONG SUPERCELLS. WITHIN AN ADEQUATELY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER PRESENT
IN THE WARM SECTOR /MIDDLE 60S F SURFACE DEWPOINTS/...SURFACE
PRESSURE FALLS REMAIN MAXIMIZED ACROSS CENTRAL NC/EAST-CENTRAL VA.
WITH NEAR-SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY REMAINING AT LEAST SOMEWHAT BACK
SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY...LATEST WSR-88D VWP DATA FROM RALEIGH NC AND
WAKEFIELD/STERLING VA ARE SAMPLING 60-70 KT WINDS WITHIN THE LOWEST
2-3 KM AGL...WHICH IS CONTRIBUTING TO IMPRESSIVE 0-1 KM SRH THAT IS
LIKELY IN EXCESS OF 500 M2/S2. TORNADOES/WIND DAMAGE WILL BE
POSSIBLE...AND THE ENVIRONMENT SUPPORTS THE POSSIBILITY OF STRONG
TORNADOES ESPECIALLY WITHIN THE AFOREMENTIONED PEAK-RISK CORRIDOR
ACROSS NC/VA.

..GUYER.. 02/24/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...MHX...LWX...RAH...ILM...RNK...CAE...

LAT...LON   38467815 39687688 39477525 36727578 34917708 34207992
            35737951 36547895 38467815

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Feb 24, 3:06 PM ESTMesoscale DiscussionSPCKent, New Castle, Sussex54 min
Feb 24, 3:20 PM ESTTornado WatchSPCKent, New Castle, Sussex8 hr
Feb 24, 1:18 PM ESTMesoscale DiscussionSPCCalvert, Charles, Prince George's, Saint Mary's117 min
Feb 24, 1:46 PM ESTTornado WatchSPCDorchester, Somerset, Wicomico, Worcester9 hr
Feb 24, 6:40 PM ESTMesoscale DiscussionSPCCharles, Saint Mary's2 hr
Feb 24, 8:14 AM ESTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAvery, Buncombe, Cherokee, Clay, Graham, Haywood and 10 more2 hr
Feb 24, 10:46 AM ESTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAlamance, Alexander, Anson, Burke, Cabarrus, Caldwell and 36 more119 min
Feb 24, 11:16 AM ESTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBeaufort, Bertie, Bladen, Brunswick, Camden, Carteret and 28 more89 min
Feb 24, 11:16 AM ESTTornado WatchSPCAlamance, Alexander, Anson, Bladen, Brunswick, Cabarrus and 52 more8 hr
Feb 24, 2:55 PM ESTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAlamance, Anson, Bladen, Brunswick, Caswell, Chatham and 28 more95 min
Feb 24, 6:50 PM ESTTornado WatchSPCBeaufort, Bertie, Bladen, Brunswick, Camden, Carteret and 36 more4 hr
Feb 24, 3:58 AM ESTTornado WatchSPCAllendale6 hr
Feb 24, 6:48 AM ESTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAllendale, Beaufort, Colleton, Hampton, Jasper87 min

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Virginia, 2016Mesoscale Discussions in North Carolina, 2016Mesoscale Discussions in Maryland, 2016Every mesoscale discussion in 2016

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.