Alert archive / Virginia / Mesoscale Discussions in 2016

Mesoscale Discussion 151

February 24, 2016Charles County, Saint Mary's County, Maryland; 38 counties in North Carolina; 43 counties in Virginia

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Feb 24, 2016, 6:40 PM EST for Charles County, Saint Mary's County, Maryland; 38 counties in North Carolina; 43 counties in Virginia. It was in force for 2 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Feb 24, 2016, 6:40 PM EST (23:40 UTC)
Expired
Feb 24, 2016, 8:45 PM EST
In force
2 hr
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
All 83 counties

Charles County, MD, Saint Mary's County, MD, Beaufort County, NC, Bertie County, NC, Bladen County, NC, Camden County, NC, Carteret County, NC, Chowan County, NC, Craven County, NC, Cumberland County, NC, Currituck County, NC, Dare County, NC, Duplin County, NC, Edgecombe County, NC, Franklin County, NC, Gates County, NC, Greene County, NC, Halifax County, NC, Harnett County, NC, Hertford County, NC, Hyde County, NC, Johnston County, NC, Jones County, NC, Lenoir County, NC, Martin County, NC, Nash County, NC, Northampton County, NC, Onslow County, NC, Pamlico County, NC, Pasquotank County, NC, Pender County, NC, Perquimans County, NC, Pitt County, NC, Sampson County, NC, Tyrrell County, NC, Wake County, NC, Warren County, NC, Washington County, NC, Wayne County, NC, Wilson County, NC, Brunswick County, VA, Caroline County, VA, Charles City County, VA, Chesterfield County, VA, City of Chesapeake, VA, City of Colonial Heights, VA, City of Emporia, VA, City of Franklin, VA, City of Hampton, VA, City of Hopewell, VA, City of Newport News, VA, City of Norfolk, VA, City of Petersburg, VA, City of Poquoson, VA, City of Portsmouth, VA, City of Richmond, VA, City of Suffolk, VA, City of Virginia Beach, VA, City of Williamsburg, VA, Dinwiddie County, VA, Essex County, VA, Gloucester County, VA, Greensville County, VA, Hanover County, VA, Henrico County, VA, Isle of Wight County, VA, James City County, VA, King and Queen County, VA, King George County, VA, King William County, VA, Lancaster County, VA, Mathews County, VA, Middlesex County, VA, New Kent County, VA, Northampton County, VA, Northumberland County, VA, Prince George County, VA, Richmond County, VA, Southampton County, VA, Surry County, VA, Sussex County, VA, Westmoreland County, VA, York County, VA

The radar

The Norfolk radar (KAKQ), 85 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 23:43 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Newport, NC (KMHX), launched 12:00Z, 11.7 hours before the alert went out and 160 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Newport, NC at 12:00Z on 2016-02-24Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 502 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Newport, NC at 12:00Z on 2016-02-24The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 333 square meters per square second.19395878Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
502 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-10 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
595 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
41 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
333 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
386 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
2.9

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

737 
ACUS11 KWNS 242341
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 242340 
VAZ000-NCZ000-MDZ000-250145-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0151
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0540 PM CST WED FEB 24 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NC...ERN VA INTO THE DELMARVA

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 27...28...

VALID 242340Z - 250145Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 27...28...CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...THE THREAT FOR TORNADOES...DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED
HAIL WILL PERSIST MAINLY FROM ERN VA INTO ERN NC.

DISCUSSION...A BROKEN LINE OF SUPERCELLS IS CURRENTLY ONGOING AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT. OBSERVED WIND SHEAR VIA RADAR IS EXTREME WITH
600-800 M2/S2 SRH IN THE LOWEST 1 KM ALONE WHICH STRONGLY FAVORS
ROTATING STORMS CAPABLE OF TORNADOES. GIVEN A SUFFICIENTLY MOIST AND
UNSTABLE AIR MASS WITH MUCAPE AROUND 1000 J/KG...AND CONTINUED LIFT
WITH THE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH...THE SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TOWARD THE ATLANTIC COAST. A FEW OF THE STRONGER STORM
CORES MAY ALSO PRODUCE HAIL.

..JEWELL.. 02/24/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...LWX...RAH...ILM...

LAT...LON   34477706 34407824 34727885 35447896 36577804 37707753
            38587721 38457664 37947611 37387571 36137553 35617542
            35167551 34477706

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Feb 24, 1:18 PM ESTMesoscale DiscussionSPCCalvert, Charles, Prince George's, Saint Mary's117 min
Feb 24, 1:46 PM ESTTornado WatchSPCDorchester, Somerset, Wicomico, Worcester9 hr
Feb 24, 3:06 PM ESTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAnne Arundel, Baltimore, Calvert, Caroline, Carroll, Cecil and 12 more54 min
Feb 24, 3:20 PM ESTTornado WatchSPCAnne Arundel, Baltimore, Calvert, Caroline, Carroll, Cecil and 11 more8 hr
Feb 24, 4:46 PM ESTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAnne Arundel, Baltimore, Calvert, Caroline, Charles, Dorchester and 11 more89 min
Feb 24, 8:14 AM ESTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAvery, Buncombe, Cherokee, Clay, Graham, Haywood and 10 more2 hr
Feb 24, 10:46 AM ESTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAlamance, Alexander, Anson, Burke, Cabarrus, Caldwell and 36 more119 min
Feb 24, 11:16 AM ESTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBeaufort, Bertie, Bladen, Brunswick, Camden, Carteret and 28 more89 min
Feb 24, 11:16 AM ESTTornado WatchSPCAlamance, Alexander, Anson, Bladen, Brunswick, Cabarrus and 52 more8 hr
Feb 24, 2:55 PM ESTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAlamance, Anson, Bladen, Brunswick, Caswell, Chatham and 28 more95 min
Feb 24, 6:50 PM ESTTornado WatchSPCBeaufort, Bertie, Bladen, Brunswick, Camden, Carteret and 36 more4 hr

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Virginia, 2016Mesoscale Discussions in North Carolina, 2016Mesoscale Discussions in Maryland, 2016Every mesoscale discussion in 2016

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.