Alert archive / North Carolina / Mesoscale Discussions in 2016
Mesoscale Discussion 142
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Feb 24, 2016, 11:16 AM EST for 34 counties in North Carolina; City of Suffolk, Virginia. It was in force for 89 min.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Feb 24, 2016, 11:16 AM EST (16:16 UTC)
- Expired
- Feb 24, 2016, 12:45 PM EST
- In force
- 89 min
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
- Chance of a watch
- 95%
All 35 counties
Beaufort County, NC, Bertie County, NC, Bladen County, NC, Brunswick County, NC, Camden County, NC, Carteret County, NC, Chowan County, NC, Columbus County, NC, Craven County, NC, Cumberland County, NC, Dare County, NC, Duplin County, NC, Edgecombe County, NC, Gates County, NC, Greene County, NC, Hertford County, NC, Hyde County, NC, Johnston County, NC, Jones County, NC, Lenoir County, NC, Martin County, NC, Nash County, NC, New Hanover County, NC, Onslow County, NC, Pamlico County, NC, Pasquotank County, NC, Pender County, NC, Perquimans County, NC, Pitt County, NC, Sampson County, NC, Tyrrell County, NC, Washington County, NC, Wayne County, NC, Wilson County, NC, City of Suffolk, VA
The radar
The Morehead City radar (KMHX), 80 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 16:19 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The watches that followed
Watches SPC issued over any of the same counties within four hours of this discussion.
The nearest sounding before it
Newport, NC (KMHX), launched 12:00Z, 4.3 hours before the alert went out and 80 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 502 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -10 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 595 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 41 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 333 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 386 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 2.9
The text
As transmitted.
685
ACUS11 KWNS 241617
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 241616
NCZ000-VAZ000-SCZ000-241745-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0142
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1016 AM CST WED FEB 24 2016
AREAS AFFECTED...EASTERN CAROLINAS
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY
VALID 241616Z - 241745Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...95 PERCENT
SUMMARY...TORNADO RISK WILL EXIST/GRADUALLY INCREASE PARTICULARLY
ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL NC INTO SOUTHEAST VA THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. A
RECENTLY ISSUED TORNADO WATCH INCLUDES PORTIONS OF THE REGION...AND
TRENDS WILL OTHERWISE CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR ANY NECESSARY
ADDITIONAL TORNADO WATCH ISSUANCES.
DISCUSSION...A PERSISTENT NNE/SSW-ORIENTED BAND OF CONVECTION ACROSS
EAST-CENTRAL/COASTAL PORTIONS OF NC/SC HAS INTENSIFIED OVER THE PAST
HALF HOUR INCLUDING A COUPLE OF EMBEDDED STRONG SUPERCELLS. A
CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER PRECEDES THIS CONVECTION...BUT
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO WARM INTO THE UPPER 60S F IN CONJUNCTION
WITH MIDDLE 60S F DEWPOINTS...WHICH ARE CONDUCIVE FOR SURFACE-BASED
CONVECTION VIA MODIFIED 12Z OBSERVED/SHORT-TERM SOUNDINGS.
LOW-LEVEL/DEEP-LAYER SHEAR IS WELL-SUPPORTIVE OF A TORNADO
RISK...INCLUDING STRONG TORNADO POTENTIAL...AS ACCENTUATED BY RECENT
350-450 M2/S2 OF 0-1 KM SRH AS PER RALEIGH/MOREHEAD CITY WSR-88D VWP
DATA.
..GUYER/GRAMS.. 02/24/2016
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...
LAT...LON 34047910 35067884 35857826 36897657 36017552 34937597
33737807 34047910SPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 24, 8:14 AM EST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Avery, Buncombe, Cherokee, Clay, Graham, Haywood and 10 more | 2 hr |
| Feb 24, 10:46 AM EST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Alamance, Alexander, Anson, Burke, Cabarrus, Caldwell and 36 more | 119 min |
| Feb 24, 11:16 AM EST | Tornado Watch | SPC | Alamance, Alexander, Anson, Bladen, Brunswick, Cabarrus and 52 more | 8 hr |
| Feb 24, 1:18 PM EST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Alamance, Caswell, Durham, Franklin, Granville, Guilford and 9 more | 117 min |
| Feb 24, 1:46 PM EST | Tornado Watch | SPC | Beaufort, Bertie, Camden, Carteret, Chowan, Currituck and 10 more | 9 hr |
| Feb 24, 2:55 PM EST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Alamance, Anson, Bladen, Brunswick, Caswell, Chatham and 28 more | 95 min |
| Feb 24, 4:46 PM EST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Beaufort, Bertie, Bladen, Camden, Chatham, Chowan and 35 more | 89 min |
| Feb 24, 6:40 PM EST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Beaufort, Bertie, Bladen, Camden, Carteret, Chowan and 32 more | 2 hr |
| Feb 24, 6:50 PM EST | Tornado Watch | SPC | Beaufort, Bertie, Bladen, Brunswick, Camden, Carteret and 36 more | 4 hr |
| Feb 24, 3:06 PM EST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Arlington, Culpeper, Fairfax, Fauquier, King George, Loudoun and 10 more | 54 min |
| Feb 24, 3:20 PM EST | Tornado Watch | SPC | Arlington, Culpeper, Fairfax, Fauquier, King George, Loudoun and 10 more | 8 hr |
Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in North Carolina, 2016Mesoscale Discussions in Virginia, 2016Every mesoscale discussion in 2016
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.