Alert archive / New Jersey / Mesoscale Discussions in 2016
Mesoscale Discussion 152
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Feb 24, 2016, 6:46 PM EST for 11 counties in New Jersey; 10 counties in New York; 7 counties in Pennsylvania. It was in force for 119 min.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Feb 24, 2016, 6:46 PM EST (23:46 UTC)
- Expired
- Feb 24, 2016, 8:45 PM EST
- In force
- 119 min
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
- Chance of a watch
- 80%
All 28 counties
Bergen County, NJ, Essex County, NJ, Hudson County, NJ, Hunterdon County, NJ, Middlesex County, NJ, Morris County, NJ, Passaic County, NJ, Somerset County, NJ, Sussex County, NJ, Union County, NJ, Warren County, NJ, Bronx County, NY, Kings County, NY, Nassau County, NY, New York County, NY, Putnam County, NY, Queens County, NY, Richmond County, NY, Rockland County, NY, Suffolk County, NY, Westchester County, NY, Berks County, PA, Bucks County, PA, Carbon County, PA, Lehigh County, PA, Monroe County, PA, Northampton County, PA, Schuylkill County, PA
The radar
The Philadelphia radar (KDIX), 115 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 23:47 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The watches that followed
Watches SPC issued over any of the same counties within four hours of this discussion.
The nearest sounding before it
Brookhaven, NY (KOKX), launched 12:00Z, 11.8 hours before the alert went out and 158 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 2 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- 0 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 405 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 38 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 547 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 635 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted.
087
ACUS11 KWNS 242346
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 242346
CTZ000-NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-250145-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0152
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0546 PM CST WED FEB 24 2016
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF EASTERN PA...NRN NJ...SERN NY...AND CT
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY
VALID 242346Z - 250145Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT
SUMMARY...A BAND OF STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL
PUSH EAST THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...WITH THE PRIMARY THREAT BEING
DAMAGING WINDS. A BRIEF TORNADO OR TWO MAY BE POSSIBLE AS WELL. WW
ISSUANCE IS LIKELY.
DISCUSSION...THE LATEST REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC DEPICTS A
CONSOLIDATING BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS PUSHING EASTWARD ACROSS
CENTRAL/EASTERN PA. TEMPS TO THE EAST OF THIS LINE HAVE RISEN INTO
THE LOWER 60S ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/NRN NJ...AS INCREASING SLY
FLOW SUPPORTS POLEWARD THERMAL/MOISTURE ADVECTION. AS THIS
OCCURS...THE NEAR-SFC STABLE LAYER SHOULD WEAKEN SUFFICIENTLY IN
SPOTS...SUCH THAT INCREASINGLY FORCED CONVECTION WILL LIKELY FAVOR
POCKETS OF WIND DAMAGE...DEPENDENT UPON HOW FAR NORTH THIS
DESTABILIZATION OCCURS. FURTHERMORE...VWP DATA TO THE EAST OF THIS
LINE SAMPLE VERY STRONG SLY FLOW /APPROX 65-75 KTS/ AROUND 1-3 KM
ABOVE THE SFC...SUGGESTING A POTENTIAL WIND THREAT. AS SUCH...THE
POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS MAY INCREASE ACROSS THE MCD AREA OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. A BRIEF TORNADO OR TWO WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE...CONSIDERING THE PRESENCE OF AMPLE SRH AS INDICATED BY
KDIX VWP DATA. WW ISSUANCE IS LIKELY WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR.
..PICCA/CORFIDI.. 02/24/2016
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...BOX...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...CTP...
LAT...LON 40517647 40777650 41007623 41267560 41407428 41567361
41717233 41367213 40727274 40307442 40337614 40517647SPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 24, 3:06 PM EST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Atlantic, Burlington, Camden, Cape May, Cumberland, Gloucester and 2 more | 54 min |
| Feb 24, 3:20 PM EST | Tornado Watch | SPC | Atlantic, Burlington, Camden, Cape May, Cumberland, Gloucester and 10 more | 8 hr |
Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in New Jersey, 2016Mesoscale Discussions in New York, 2016Mesoscale Discussions in Pennsylvania, 2016Every mesoscale discussion in 2016
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.