Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
305 PM EDT WED JUN 1 2016

.SHORT TERM /Tonight through Thursday Night/...

A summer time pattern will continue as mainly diurnally driven
scattered afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms persist
with a moderately unstable and weakly sheared environment in place.
Weak disturbances approaching from the west could result in a few
showers or even an isolated thunderstorm lingering after midnight...
but for the most part... convection should greatly diminish by
midnight. Although no widespread organized severe storms are
expected... some mid level dry air could enhance storm downdrafts...
resulting in a few strong to severe storms producing the occasional
50-60 mph wind gust this afternoon and evening... and this potential
threat will likely continue on Thursday. The weakly sheared
environment will result in very slow moving storms that will result
in locally heavy heavy rain for those fortunate areas that a storm
happens to drift over. These areas could easily see anywhere from
0.5 to 1.5 inches in a very short time... but the rain is much
needed. Also... cannot rule out some small to medium sized hail with
the freezing level down around 12kft... but would expect the main
convective threats to be strong... potentially damaging wind
gusts... and locally heavy rainfall.

Otherwise... expecting partly cloudy afternoons and mostly clear
nights with temperatures running about 5-8 degrees above normal. A
MAV and MET MOS blend for temperatures and pops looked reasonable
through the period.

39

.LONG TERM /Friday through Wednesday/...

Did not make too many changes to the current extended forecast grids
with this cycle as overall trends still look good. 12Z run of the
medium-range models all show some enhancement of the upper ridge
over the region Friday into Saturday as the southern plains closed
upper low begins shifting east. This may actually provide some
suppression of convection...but increase in low-level moisture and
instability is likely to offset this somewhat. Best chances for
widespread beneficial rainfall still appears to be late Saturday
though late Sunday as upper trough axis transits the area along with
an associated cold front. Although best upper dynamics remain well
north of the state...decent low/mid-level wind field accompanies the
front and along with moderate instability indicates we will need to
keep an eye on trends for severe thunderstorm potential Sunday.
Extended period of good northwesterly upper flow should drive the
cold front through the forecast area by early Monday allowing for
noticeably drier and milder air to dominate the region Monday
through Wednesday.

20

&&

AVIATION...
18Z Update...
VFR conditions expected to prevail through the taf period with brief
periods of bkn mid level cut each afternoon... especially in and
around afternoon convection. Continue to expect scattered afternoon
and evening showers and thunderstorms... with a tempo/prob30 TSRA
during the period 18-22z warranted each day. Current ESE winds
around 5-7kts should settle out more SSE this afternoon... then back
slightly more east tonight. Winds mix down more SSE by 15z Thu...
then veer over to SSW by 18z Thu. Speeds around 7kts or less on Thu.

//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...
Medium on wind direction. High on all other elements.

39

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          69  91  69  90 /  30  30  30  40
Atlanta         71  90  71  89 /  30  30  30  40
Blairsville     65  83  64  83 /  40  50  40  50
Cartersville    67  89  67  88 /  40  40  30  50
Columbus        70  92  71  93 /  20  30  20  30
Gainesville     69  87  69  88 /  40  40  40  50
Macon           68  93  69  93 /  30  30  20  40
Rome            68  90  67  88 /  30  40  30  50
Peachtree City  67  90  67  90 /  30  30  20  40
Vidalia         71  93  72  92 /  30  30  20  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...39
LONG TERM....20
AVIATION...39

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
535 PM EDT WED JUN 1 2016

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-021100-
BALDWIN-BANKS-BARROW-BARTOW-BIBB-BLECKLEY-BUTTS-CARROLL-CATOOSA-
CHATTAHOOCHEE-CHATTOOGA-CHEROKEE-CLARKE-CLAYTON-COBB-COWETA-
CRAWFORD-CRISP-DADE-DAWSON-DEKALB-DODGE-DOOLY-DOUGLAS-EMANUEL-
FANNIN-FAYETTE-FLOYD-FORSYTH-GILMER-GLASCOCK-GORDON-GREENE-
GWINNETT-HALL-HANCOCK-HARALSON-HARRIS-HEARD-HENRY-HOUSTON-JACKSON-
JASPER-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-JONES-LAMAR-LAURENS-LUMPKIN-MACON-
MADISON-MARION-MERIWETHER-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-MORGAN-MURRAY-
MUSCOGEE-NEWTON-NORTH FULTON-OCONEE-OGLETHORPE-PAULDING-PEACH-
PICKENS-PIKE-POLK-PULASKI-PUTNAM-ROCKDALE-SCHLEY-SOUTH FULTON-
SPALDING-STEWART-SUMTER-TALBOT-TALIAFERRO-TAYLOR-TELFAIR-TOOMBS-
TOWNS-TREUTLEN-TROUP-TWIGGS-UNION-UPSON-WALKER-WALTON-WARREN-
WASHINGTON-WEBSTER-WHEELER-WHITE-WHITFIELD-WILCOX-WILKES-
WILKINSON-
535 PM EDT WED JUN 1 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL
GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND THIS EVENING ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA. A FEW STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY.

MODERATE INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH STRONG DAYTIME HEATING HAS
RESULTED IN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTH AND
CENTRAL GEORGIA...A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS HAVE ALREADY BEEN
OBSERVED. THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
EVENING...DIMINISHING AS WE MOVE INTO THE LATE EVENING. THE MAIN
THREAT FROM ANY THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FREQUENT LIGHTNING...HAIL...
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND STRONG...POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK AND THIS WEEKEND AS MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY INCREASE ACROSS
THE REGION. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES DECREASE ONCE AGAIN AS WE HEAD INTO
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE MAIN THREAT FROM ANY THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
FREQUENT LIGHTNING...SMALL HAIL...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND
STRONG...GUSTY WINDS UP TO 45 MPH.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
632 PM EDT WED JUN 1 2016

GAZ013-014-012300-
DAWSON GA-PICKENS GA-
632 PM EDT WED JUN 1 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WESTERN DAWSON AND EASTERN
PICKENS COUNTIES UNTIL 700 PM EDT...

AT 631 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS NEAR JASPER...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

  HAZARD...40 TO 50 MPH WIND...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING
           AND HEAVY RAIN.

  IMPACT...PEOPLE OUTDOORS SHOULD SEEK SHELTER IMMEDIATELY. EXPECT
           MINOR DAMAGE TO TREE LIMBS AND BLOWING AROUND OF
           LIGHT...UNSECURED OBJECTS. ELECTRICAL APPLIANCES SHOULD
           NOT BE USED UNLESS IN AN EMERGENCY. LOCALIZED FLOODING IN
           LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS IS ALSO LIKELY.
           MOTORISTS SHOULD SLOW DOWN AND BE PREPARED FOR POSSIBLE
           LOSS OF CONTROL DUE TO HYDROPLANING. WHEN WATER COVERS
           THE ROAD...REMEMBER TO TURN AROUND DON'T DROWN.

SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE
JASPER...NELSON...MARBLEHILL...LAKE TAMARACK...SEQUOYAH LAKE...TATE
AND FAUSETT LAKE.

LAT...LON 3453 8428 3438 8426 3439 8446 3449 8450
      3455 8444 3455 8443 3456 8443 3455 8442
      3455 8437 3456 8437
TIME...MOT...LOC 2231Z 227DEG 7KT 3447 8437

DJN

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
636 PM EDT WED JUN 1 2016

GAZ034-045>048-012300-
DEKALB GA-NEWTON GA-GWINNETT GA-ROCKDALE GA-WALTON GA-
636 PM EDT WED JUN 1 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EASTERN DEKALB...NORTHERN
NEWTON...SOUTHERN GWINNETT...NORTHEASTERN ROCKDALE AND WESTERN WALTON
COUNTIES UNTIL 700 PM EDT...

AT 635 PM EDT...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WAS ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM LILBURN TO GEORGIA INTERNATIONAL HORSE PARK...AND
MOVING EAST AT 5 MPH.

  HAZARD...40 TO 50 MPH WIND AND HEAVY RAIN.

  IMPACT...PEOPLE OUTDOORS SHOULD SEEK SHELTER IMMEDIATELY. EXPECT
           MINOR DAMAGE TO TREE LIMBS AND BLOWING AROUND OF
           LIGHT...UNSECURED OBJECTS. LOCALIZED FLOODING IN LOW
           LYING AREAS AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS IS ALSO LIKELY.
           MOTORISTS SHOULD SLOW DOWN AND BE PREPARED FOR POSSIBLE
           LOSS OF CONTROL DUE TO HYDROPLANING. WHEN WATER COVERS
           THE ROAD...REMEMBER TO TURN AROUND DON'T DROWN.

SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE
LAWRENCEVILLE...CONYERS...SNELLVILLE...LILBURN...LOGANVILLE...GRAYSON
... WALNUT GROVE...GEORGIA INTERNATIONAL HORSE PARK...LAKEVIEW
ESTATES... TUCKER...MOUNTAIN PARK...GUM CREEK...MILSTEAD...BIG
HAYNES CREEK PARK... ROSEBUD AND YOUTH.

LAT...LON 3397 8405 3378 8377 3364 8397 3387 8421
TIME...MOT...LOC 2235Z 263DEG 5KT 3389 8413 3365 8392

DJN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
640 PM EDT WED JUN 01 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0615 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 W BUFORD              34.12N  84.02W
06/01/2016                   GWINNETT           GA   PUBLIC

            SEVERAL PINE TREES SNAPPED AT RESIDENCE ALONG COPPER
            GROVE LANE NEAR BUFORD. ALSO HAD NICKEL-SIZED HAIL. TIME
            ESTIMATED FROM RADAR.

&&

EVENT NUMBER FFC1600301

DJN

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
643 PM EDT WED JUN 1 2016

GAZ060-012315-
PUTNAM GA-
643 PM EDT WED JUN 1 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR PUTNAM COUNTY UNTIL 715 PM EDT...

AT 643 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS NEAR EATONTON...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 5 MPH.

  HAZARD...40 TO 50 MPH WIND...UP TO PENNY SIZED HAIL...FREQUENT
           CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND HEAVY RAIN.

  IMPACT...PEOPLE OUTDOORS SHOULD SEEK SHELTER IMMEDIATELY. EXPECT
           MINOR DAMAGE TO TREE LIMBS AND BLOWING AROUND OF
           LIGHT...UNSECURED OBJECTS. ELECTRICAL APPLIANCES SHOULD
           NOT BE USED UNLESS IN AN EMERGENCY. LOCALIZED FLOODING IN
           LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS IS ALSO LIKELY.
           MOTORISTS SHOULD SLOW DOWN AND BE PREPARED FOR POSSIBLE
           LOSS OF CONTROL DUE TO HYDROPLANING. WHEN WATER COVERS
           THE ROAD...REMEMBER TO TURN AROUND DON'T DROWN.

SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE
EATONTON...RESSEAUS CROSSROADS...ROCK EAGLE 4-H CENTER...WARFIELD AND
WILLARD.

LAT...LON 3328 8323 3326 8323 3326 8325 3322 8326
      3318 8335 3318 8336 3317 8337 3318 8339
      3318 8342 3319 8345 3328 8354 3330 8354
      3346 8339 3328 8320
TIME...MOT...LOC 2243Z 230DEG 5KT 3328 8342

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
647 PM EDT WED JUN 1 2016

GAZ022-023-034-012315-
GWINNETT GA-FORSYTH GA-HALL GA-
647 PM EDT WED JUN 1 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN GWINNETT...FORSYTH AND
SOUTHWESTERN HALL COUNTIES UNTIL 715 PM EDT...

AT 647 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS OVER CUMMING...MOVING NORTH
AT 10 MPH.

  HAZARD...UP TO 40 MPH WIND...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING
           AND HEAVY RAIN.

  IMPACT...PEOPLE OUTDOORS SHOULD SEEK SHELTER IMMEDIATELY. EXPECT
           MINOR DAMAGE TO TREE LIMBS AND BLOWING AROUND OF
           LIGHT...UNSECURED OBJECTS. ELECTRICAL APPLIANCES SHOULD
           NOT BE USED UNLESS IN AN EMERGENCY. LOCALIZED FLOODING IN
           LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS IS ALSO LIKELY.
           MOTORISTS SHOULD SLOW DOWN AND BE PREPARED FOR POSSIBLE
           LOSS OF CONTROL DUE TO HYDROPLANING.  WHEN WATER COVERS
           THE ROAD...REMEMBER TO TURN AROUND DON'T DROWN.

SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE CUMMING...SUGAR
HILL...BUFORD...FLOWERY BRANCH...OAKWOOD...REST HAVEN... BUFORD DAM-
LAKE LANIER PARKS...AQUALAND PARK...CHESTATEE...LAKE LANIER
ISLANDS...MATT...COAL MOUNTAIN AND OSCARVILLE.

LAT...LON 3413 8399 3413 8417 3430 8416 3431 8392
      3418 8385
TIME...MOT...LOC 2247Z 176DEG 8KT 3419 8410

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
656 PM EDT WED JUN 1 2016

GAZ098-111-112-012330-
WHEELER GA-MONTGOMERY GA-TREUTLEN GA-
656 PM EDT WED JUN 1 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN WHEELER...NORTHERN
MONTGOMERY AND TREUTLEN COUNTIES UNTIL 730 PM EDT...

AT 656 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS OVER TARRYTOWN...OR NEAR
SOPERTON...MOVING NORTH AT 5 MPH.

  HAZARD...40 TO 50 MPH WIND...UP TO PENNY SIZED HAIL...FREQUENT
           CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND HEAVY RAIN.

  IMPACT...PEOPLE OUTDOORS SHOULD SEEK SHELTER IMMEDIATELY. EXPECT
           MINOR DAMAGE TO TREE LIMBS AND BLOWING AROUND OF
           LIGHT...UNSECURED OBJECTS. ELECTRICAL APPLIANCES SHOULD
           NOT BE USED UNLESS IN AN EMERGENCY. LOCALIZED FLOODING IN
           LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS IS ALSO LIKELY.
           MOTORISTS SHOULD SLOW DOWN AND BE PREPARED FOR POSSIBLE
           LOSS OF CONTROL DUE TO HYDROPLANING. WHEN WATER COVERS
           THE ROAD...REMEMBER TO TURN AROUND DON'T DROWN.

SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE SOPERTON...MOUNT
VERNON...GLENWOOD...AILEY...HIGGSTON...TARRYTOWN...GILLIS
SPRINGS...BARNHILL...LOTHAIR...ORLAND...ZAIDEE...KIBBEE AND
LANDSBURG.

LAT...LON 3218 8245 3215 8270 3230 8273 3231 8272
      3234 8274 3235 8273 3236 8273 3237 8272
      3239 8272 3241 8270 3244 8270 3247 8244
TIME...MOT...LOC 2256Z 172DEG 5KT 3229 8258