Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
305 PM EDT WED JUN 1 2016

.SHORT TERM /Tonight through Thursday Night/...

A summer time pattern will continue as mainly diurnally driven
scattered afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms persist
with a moderately unstable and weakly sheared environment in place.
Weak disturbances approaching from the west could result in a few
showers or even an isolated thunderstorm lingering after midnight...
but for the most part... convection should greatly diminish by
midnight. Although no widespread organized severe storms are
expected... some mid level dry air could enhance storm downdrafts...
resulting in a few strong to severe storms producing the occasional
50-60 mph wind gust this afternoon and evening... and this potential
threat will likely continue on Thursday. The weakly sheared
environment will result in very slow moving storms that will result
in locally heavy heavy rain for those fortunate areas that a storm
happens to drift over. These areas could easily see anywhere from
0.5 to 1.5 inches in a very short time... but the rain is much
needed. Also... cannot rule out some small to medium sized hail with
the freezing level down around 12kft... but would expect the main
convective threats to be strong... potentially damaging wind
gusts... and locally heavy rainfall.

Otherwise... expecting partly cloudy afternoons and mostly clear
nights with temperatures running about 5-8 degrees above normal. A
MAV and MET MOS blend for temperatures and pops looked reasonable
through the period.

39

.LONG TERM /Friday through Wednesday/...

Did not make too many changes to the current extended forecast grids
with this cycle as overall trends still look good. 12Z run of the
medium-range models all show some enhancement of the upper ridge
over the region Friday into Saturday as the southern plains closed
upper low begins shifting east. This may actually provide some
suppression of convection...but increase in low-level moisture and
instability is likely to offset this somewhat. Best chances for
widespread beneficial rainfall still appears to be late Saturday
though late Sunday as upper trough axis transits the area along with
an associated cold front. Although best upper dynamics remain well
north of the state...decent low/mid-level wind field accompanies the
front and along with moderate instability indicates we will need to
keep an eye on trends for severe thunderstorm potential Sunday.
Extended period of good northwesterly upper flow should drive the
cold front through the forecast area by early Monday allowing for
noticeably drier and milder air to dominate the region Monday
through Wednesday.

20

&&

AVIATION...
18Z Update...
VFR conditions expected to prevail through the taf period with brief
periods of bkn mid level cut each afternoon... especially in and
around afternoon convection. Continue to expect scattered afternoon
and evening showers and thunderstorms... with a tempo/prob30 TSRA
during the period 18-22z warranted each day. Current ESE winds
around 5-7kts should settle out more SSE this afternoon... then back
slightly more east tonight. Winds mix down more SSE by 15z Thu...
then veer over to SSW by 18z Thu. Speeds around 7kts or less on Thu.

//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...
Medium on wind direction. High on all other elements.

39

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          69  91  69  90 /  30  30  30  40
Atlanta         71  90  71  89 /  30  30  30  40
Blairsville     65  83  64  83 /  40  50  40  50
Cartersville    67  89  67  88 /  40  40  30  50
Columbus        70  92  71  93 /  20  30  20  30
Gainesville     69  87  69  88 /  40  40  40  50
Macon           68  93  69  93 /  30  30  20  40
Rome            68  90  67  88 /  30  40  30  50
Peachtree City  67  90  67  90 /  30  30  20  40
Vidalia         71  93  72  92 /  30  30  20  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...39
LONG TERM....20
AVIATION...39

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1115 AM EDT WED JUN 1 2016

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-021100-
BALDWIN-BANKS-BARROW-BARTOW-BIBB-BLECKLEY-BUTTS-CARROLL-CATOOSA-
CHATTAHOOCHEE-CHATTOOGA-CHEROKEE-CLARKE-CLAYTON-COBB-COWETA-
CRAWFORD-CRISP-DADE-DAWSON-DEKALB-DODGE-DOOLY-DOUGLAS-EMANUEL-
FANNIN-FAYETTE-FLOYD-FORSYTH-GILMER-GLASCOCK-GORDON-GREENE-
GWINNETT-HALL-HANCOCK-HARALSON-HARRIS-HEARD-HENRY-HOUSTON-JACKSON-
JASPER-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-JONES-LAMAR-LAURENS-LUMPKIN-MACON-
MADISON-MARION-MERIWETHER-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-MORGAN-MURRAY-
MUSCOGEE-NEWTON-NORTH FULTON-OCONEE-OGLETHORPE-PAULDING-PEACH-
PICKENS-PIKE-POLK-PULASKI-PUTNAM-ROCKDALE-SCHLEY-SOUTH FULTON-
SPALDING-STEWART-SUMTER-TALBOT-TALIAFERRO-TAYLOR-TELFAIR-TOOMBS-
TOWNS-TREUTLEN-TROUP-TWIGGS-UNION-UPSON-WALKER-WALTON-WARREN-
WASHINGTON-WEBSTER-WHEELER-WHITE-WHITFIELD-WILCOX-WILKES-
WILKINSON-
1115 AM EDT WED JUN 1 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL
GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA.

ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY IS LIMITED AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT
EXPECTED...A FEW STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE. THE MAIN THREAT FROM
ANY THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FREQUENT LIGHTNING...SMALL HAIL...LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL AND STRONG...GUSTY WINDS UP TO 45 MPH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK AND THIS WEEKEND AS MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY INCREASE ACROSS
THE REGION. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES DECREASE ONCE AGAIN AS WE HEAD INTO
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE MAIN THREAT FROM ANY THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
FREQUENT LIGHTNING...SMALL HAIL...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND
STRONG...GUSTY WINDS UP TO 45 MPH.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
527 PM EDT WED JUN 1 2016

GAZ097-109-111-012200-
WHEELER GA-DODGE GA-LAURENS GA-
527 PM EDT WED JUN 1 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN WHEELER...
NORTHEASTERN DODGE AND SOUTHERN LAURENS COUNTIES UNTIL 600 PM EDT...

AT 527 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS 10 MILES NORTHWEST OF
ALAMO...MOVING NORTH AT 10 MPH.

  HAZARD...40 TO 50 MPH WIND...UP TO PENNY SIZED HAIL...FREQUENT
           CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND HEAVY RAIN.

  IMPACT...PEOPLE OUTDOORS SHOULD SEEK SHELTER IMMEDIATELY. EXPECT
           MINOR DAMAGE TO TREE LIMBS AND BLOWING AROUND OF
           LIGHT...UNSECURED OBJECTS. ELECTRICAL APPLIANCES SHOULD
           NOT BE USED UNLESS IN AN EMERGENCY. LOCALIZED FLOODING IN
           LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS IS ALSO LIKELY.
           MOTORISTS SHOULD SLOW DOWN AND BE PREPARED FOR POSSIBLE
           LOSS OF CONTROL DUE TO HYDROPLANING. WHEN WATER COVERS
           THE ROAD...REMEMBER TO TURN AROUND DON'T DROWN.

SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE
CHESTER...CADWELL...RENTZ...CEDAR GROVE AND LOWERY.

LAT...LON 3239 8315 3248 8276 3234 8273 3234 8274
      3233 8275 3233 8274 3231 8273 3217 8270
      3214 8301
TIME...MOT...LOC 2127Z 166DEG 7KT 3225 8290

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
529 PM EDT WED JUN 1 2016

GAZ104-106-012200-
SUMTER GA-CRISP GA-
529 PM EDT WED JUN 1 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN SUMTER AND WESTERN
CRISP COUNTIES UNTIL 600 PM EDT...

AT 529 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS 7 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
DESOTO...OR 11 MILES SOUTHWEST OF CORDELE. THIS STORM WAS NEARLY
STATIONARY.

  HAZARD...40 TO 50 MPH WIND...UP TO PENNY SIZED HAIL...FREQUENT
           CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND HEAVY RAIN.

  IMPACT...PEOPLE OUTDOORS SHOULD SEEK SHELTER IMMEDIATELY. EXPECT
           MINOR DAMAGE TO TREE LIMBS AND BLOWING AROUND OF
           LIGHT...UNSECURED OBJECTS. ELECTRICAL APPLIANCES SHOULD
           NOT BE USED UNLESS IN AN EMERGENCY. LOCALIZED FLOODING IN
           LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS IS ALSO LIKELY.
           MOTORISTS SHOULD SLOW DOWN AND BE PREPARED FOR POSSIBLE
           LOSS OF CONTROL DUE TO HYDROPLANING. WHEN WATER COVERS
           THE ROAD...REMEMBER TO TURN AROUND DON'T DROWN.

SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE
CORDELE...COBB...GEORGIA VETERANS MEMORIAL ST PK...FORT EARLY AND
RAINES.

LAT...LON 3184 8386 3184 8389 3185 8392 3185 8394
      3186 8394 3186 8393 3188 8393 3191 8392
      3191 8406 3203 8401 3194 8375 3182 8385
TIME...MOT...LOC 2129Z 203DEG 1KT 3190 8395

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
530 PM EDT WED JUN 1 2016

GAZ005-007-012200-
GILMER GA-MURRAY GA-
530 PM EDT WED JUN 1 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN GILMER AND
SOUTHEASTERN MURRAY COUNTIES UNTIL 600 PM EDT...

AT 530 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS 10 MILES WEST OF ELLIJAY...
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

  HAZARD...40 TO 50 MPH WIND...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING
           AND HEAVY RAIN.

  IMPACT...PEOPLE OUTDOORS SHOULD SEEK SHELTER IMMEDIATELY. EXPECT
           MINOR DAMAGE TO TREE LIMBS AND BLOWING AROUND OF
           LIGHT...UNSECURED OBJECTS. ELECTRICAL APPLIANCES SHOULD
           NOT BE USED UNLESS IN AN EMERGENCY. LOCALIZED FLOODING IN
           LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS IS ALSO LIKELY.
           MOTORISTS SHOULD SLOW DOWN AND BE PREPARED FOR POSSIBLE
           LOSS OF CONTROL DUE TO HYDROPLANING. WHEN WATER COVERS
           THE ROAD...REMEMBER TO TURN AROUND DON'T DROWN.

SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE
ELLIJAY...EAST ELLIJAY...CARTERS...TAILS CREEK AND ROUNDTOP.

LAT...LON 3475 8453 3467 8446 3455 8465 3458 8465
      3458 8468 3459 8468 3459 8470 3460 8471
      3461 8473 3461 8472 3462 8472 3462 8473
      3475 8466
TIME...MOT...LOC 2130Z 204DEG 12KT 3464 8465

DJN

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
532 PM EDT WED JUN 1 2016

GAZ047-049-012200-
MORGAN GA-WALTON GA-
532 PM EDT WED JUN 1 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN MORGAN AND WALTON
COUNTIES UNTIL 600 PM EDT...

AT 532 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS NEAR MONROE...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

  HAZARD...40 TO 50 MPH WIND...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING
           AND HEAVY RAIN.

  IMPACT...PEOPLE OUTDOORS SHOULD SEEK SHELTER IMMEDIATELY. EXPECT
           MINOR DAMAGE TO TREE LIMBS AND BLOWING AROUND OF
           LIGHT...UNSECURED OBJECTS. ELECTRICAL APPLIANCES SHOULD
           NOT BE USED UNLESS IN AN EMERGENCY. LOCALIZED FLOODING IN
           LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS IS ALSO LIKELY.
           MOTORISTS SHOULD SLOW DOWN AND BE PREPARED FOR POSSIBLE
           LOSS OF CONTROL DUE TO HYDROPLANING. WHEN WATER COVERS
           THE ROAD...REMEMBER TO TURN AROUND DON'T DROWN.

SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE
MONROE...LOGANVILLE...SOCIAL CIRCLE...WALNUT
GROVE...RUTLEDGE...BOSTWICK... BETWEEN...GOOD
HOPE...JERSEY...EBENEZER...HARD LABOR CREEK STATE PARK...
PANNELL...APALACHEE...HERNDONVILLE AND YOUTH.

LAT...LON 3379 8350 3363 8339 3363 8368 3371 8386
      3375 8392 3386 8385
TIME...MOT...LOC 2132Z 219DEG 11KT 3375 8371

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
533 PM EDT WED JUN 01 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0440 PM     TSTM WND DMG     MILAN                   32.02N  83.06W
06/01/2016                   TELFAIR            GA   911 CALL CENTER

            911 CALL CENTER RECEIVED REPORT OF TWO TREES DOWN...1
            TREE ON HWY 165 AND 1 TREE ON THE TELFAIR COUNTY BORDER
            IN MILAN.

&&

EVENT NUMBER FFC1600296

KOVACIK

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
534 PM EDT WED JUN 1 2016

GAZ025-012200-
JACKSON GA-
534 PM EDT WED JUN 1 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR JACKSON COUNTY UNTIL 600 PM
EDT...

AT 534 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS OVER JEFFERSON...MOVING
NORTH AT 15 MPH.

  HAZARD...40 TO 50 MPH WIND...UP TO PENNY SIZED HAIL...FREQUENT
           CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND HEAVY RAIN.

  IMPACT...PEOPLE OUTDOORS SHOULD SEEK SHELTER IMMEDIATELY. EXPECT
           MINOR DAMAGE TO TREE LIMBS AND BLOWING AROUND OF
           LIGHT...UNSECURED OBJECTS. ELECTRICAL APPLIANCES SHOULD
           NOT BE USED UNLESS IN AN EMERGENCY. LOCALIZED FLOODING IN
           LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS IS ALSO LIKELY.
           MOTORISTS SHOULD SLOW DOWN AND BE PREPARED FOR POSSIBLE
           LOSS OF CONTROL DUE TO HYDROPLANING. WHEN WATER COVERS
           THE ROAD...REMEMBER TO TURN AROUND DON'T DROWN.

SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE
JEFFERSON...COMMERCE...ARCADE...NICHOLSON...PENDERGRASS...TALMO...APP
LE VALLEY AND PEACH STATE SPEEDWAY.

LAT...LON 3402 8353 3414 8378 3427 8364 3415 8339
TIME...MOT...LOC 2134Z 195DEG 12KT 3411 8359