Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
145 PM EDT WED JUN 1 2016

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 301 AM EDT WED JUN 1 2016/

.SHORT TERM /Today through Thursday/...
Early this morning some isolated shower/storm development has been
ongoing from weak boundary interactions across the area mainly south
of I-20 corridor. Areas that receive precip would have a better
chance for patchy fog near sunrise.

Compared to previous days...should see a shift to more active
coverage of diurnally driven convection with orographic enhancement
as low level fetch should begin to have south component drawing in
more Gulf moisture. Short range ensemble solution has median MLCAPE
values in 1250-1500 J/kg range for today with slightly higher for
Thursday and Nam thermal profiles continue to have decent mid-level
lapse rates. While no large scale forcing mechanisms look to
influence the area in the fcst period...if daytime heating and any
low level convergence allow for convective initiation...then
subsequent outflow driven development should keep things fairly
scattered rather than isolated as of late. Cannot rule out a few
stronger storms with small hail and strong downburst winds given the
environment. Overall have continued general chance pops today and
slightly higher chance pops Thursday - not enough forcing focus to
include likely.

Temps should still be above norms though not quite as warm as the
last couple days since cloud coverage and precip potential should be
greater with aforementioned moisture return.

Baker

&&

.LONG TERM /Thursday Night through Tuesday/...
Models in good agreement through the long term. Moist unstable
environment will hold over the CWA through the weekend...although
chances of showers and tstorms will increase each day...mainly in
the afternoon and evening hours. As an upper low and associated
cold front moves into the eastern U.S. Saturday night and
Sunday...a more organized pattern for showers and thunderstorms
will develop ahead of the front...mainly on Sunday. Shear
increases Sunday afternoon across north GA and a few storms could
be strong. Drier air will spread across the CWA Sunday night and
Monday bringing cooler temps and lower humidities for early next
week.

17

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z Update...
VFR conditions expected to prevail through the taf period with brief
periods of bkn mid level cut each afternoon... especially in and
around afternoon convection. Continue to expect scattered afternoon
and evening showers and thunderstorms... with a tempo/prob30 TSRA
during the period 18-22z warranted each day. Current ESE winds
around 5-7kts should settle out more SSE this afternoon... then back
slightly more east tonight. Winds mix down more SSE by 15z Thu...
then veer over to SSW by 18z Thu. Speeds around 7kts or less on Thu.

//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...
Medium on wind direction. High on all other elements.

39

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          90  68  91  69 /  30  30  30  30
Atlanta         89  71  89  70 /  30  30  40  30
Blairsville     84  64  83  64 /  40  30  40  40
Cartersville    91  68  89  67 /  30  30  40  30
Columbus        93  71  93  71 /  30  20  30  30
Gainesville     88  68  87  68 /  40  30  40  30
Macon           93  68  93  69 /  30  20  30  30
Rome            91  67  90  67 /  30  20  40  40
Peachtree City  90  66  91  66 /  30  20  40  30
Vidalia         93  71  93  72 /  30  20  30  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Baker/39
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...39

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1115 AM EDT WED JUN 1 2016

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-021100-
BALDWIN-BANKS-BARROW-BARTOW-BIBB-BLECKLEY-BUTTS-CARROLL-CATOOSA-
CHATTAHOOCHEE-CHATTOOGA-CHEROKEE-CLARKE-CLAYTON-COBB-COWETA-
CRAWFORD-CRISP-DADE-DAWSON-DEKALB-DODGE-DOOLY-DOUGLAS-EMANUEL-
FANNIN-FAYETTE-FLOYD-FORSYTH-GILMER-GLASCOCK-GORDON-GREENE-
GWINNETT-HALL-HANCOCK-HARALSON-HARRIS-HEARD-HENRY-HOUSTON-JACKSON-
JASPER-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-JONES-LAMAR-LAURENS-LUMPKIN-MACON-
MADISON-MARION-MERIWETHER-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-MORGAN-MURRAY-
MUSCOGEE-NEWTON-NORTH FULTON-OCONEE-OGLETHORPE-PAULDING-PEACH-
PICKENS-PIKE-POLK-PULASKI-PUTNAM-ROCKDALE-SCHLEY-SOUTH FULTON-
SPALDING-STEWART-SUMTER-TALBOT-TALIAFERRO-TAYLOR-TELFAIR-TOOMBS-
TOWNS-TREUTLEN-TROUP-TWIGGS-UNION-UPSON-WALKER-WALTON-WARREN-
WASHINGTON-WEBSTER-WHEELER-WHITE-WHITFIELD-WILCOX-WILKES-
WILKINSON-
1115 AM EDT WED JUN 1 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL
GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA.

ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY IS LIMITED AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT
EXPECTED...A FEW STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE. THE MAIN THREAT FROM
ANY THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FREQUENT LIGHTNING...SMALL HAIL...LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL AND STRONG...GUSTY WINDS UP TO 45 MPH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK AND THIS WEEKEND AS MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY INCREASE ACROSS
THE REGION. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES DECREASE ONCE AGAIN AS WE HEAD INTO
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE MAIN THREAT FROM ANY THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
FREQUENT LIGHTNING...SMALL HAIL...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND
STRONG...GUSTY WINDS UP TO 45 MPH.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
135 PM EDT WED JUN 1 2016

GAZ006-008-015-011815-
LUMPKIN GA-UNION GA-FANNIN GA-
135 PM EDT WED JUN 1 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN LUMPKIN...SOUTHWESTERN
UNION AND EASTERN FANNIN COUNTIES UNTIL 215 PM EDT...

AT 135 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS NEAR SUCHES...OR 9 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF BLAIRSVILLE. THIS STORM WAS NEARLY STATIONARY.

  HAZARD...UP TO 40 MPH WIND...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING
           AND HEAVY RAIN.

  IMPACT...PEOPLE OUTDOORS SHOULD SEEK SHELTER IMMEDIATELY. EXPECT
           MINOR DAMAGE TO TREE LIMBS AND BLOWING AROUND OF
           LIGHT...UNSECURED OBJECTS. ELECTRICAL APPLIANCES SHOULD
           NOT BE USED UNLESS IN AN EMERGENCY. LOCALIZED FLOODING IN
           LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS IS ALSO LIKELY.
           MOTORISTS SHOULD SLOW DOWN AND BE PREPARED FOR POSSIBLE
           LOSS OF CONTROL DUE TO HYDROPLANING.  WHEN WATER COVERS
           THE ROAD...REMEMBER TO TURN AROUND DON'T DROWN.

SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE
BLOOD MOUNTAIN SHELTER...MARGRET...VOGEL STATE PARK...OWLTOWN...WOODS
HOLE SHELTER AND GADDISTOWN.

LAT...LON 3467 8414 3481 8418 3486 8390 3472 8387
TIME...MOT...LOC 1735Z 261DEG 4KT 3478 8407

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
143 PM EDT WED JUN 1 2016

GAZ001-011830-
DADE GA-
143 PM EDT WED JUN 1 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN DADE COUNTY UNTIL
230 PM EDT...

AT 143 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS NEAR TRENTON...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 5 MPH.

  HAZARD...UP TO 40 MPH WIND...PEA SIZED HAIL AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO
           GROUND LIGHTNING.

  IMPACT...PEOPLE OUTDOORS SHOULD SEEK SHELTER IMMEDIATELY. EXPECT
           MINOR DAMAGE TO TREE LIMBS AND BLOWING AROUND OF
           LIGHT...UNSECURED OBJECTS. ELECTRICAL APPLIANCES SHOULD
           NOT BE USED UNLESS IN AN EMERGENCY.

SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE
TRENTON...NEW ENGLAND AND STEPHENSVILLE.

LAT...LON 3489 8543 3479 8557 3486 8559 3498 8560
      3499 8559
TIME...MOT...LOC 1743Z 205DEG 6KT 3484 8557

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
156 PM EDT WED JUN 1 2016

GAZ066-011830-
TROUP GA-
156 PM EDT WED JUN 1 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN TROUP COUNTY UNTIL 230
PM EDT...

AT 156 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS NEAR LAGRANGE...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

  HAZARD...UP TO 40 MPH WIND...PEA SIZED HAIL AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO
           GROUND LIGHTNING.

  IMPACT...PEOPLE OUTDOORS SHOULD SEEK SHELTER IMMEDIATELY. EXPECT
           MINOR DAMAGE TO TREE LIMBS AND BLOWING AROUND OF
           LIGHT...UNSECURED OBJECTS. ELECTRICAL APPLIANCES SHOULD
           NOT BE USED UNLESS IN AN EMERGENCY.

SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE LAGRANGE...WEST
POINT...MOUNTVILLE...BAUGHS CROSSROADS...CANNONVILLE...BIG
SPRINGS...SMITHS CROSSROAD...LONG CANE AND JONES CROSSROADS.

LAT...LON 3303 8515 3305 8486 3287 8486 3287 8518
TIME...MOT...LOC 1756Z 213DEG 7KT 3294 8499