Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
305 PM EDT WED JUN 1 2016

.SHORT TERM /Tonight through Thursday Night/...

A summer time pattern will continue as mainly diurnally driven
scattered afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms persist
with a moderately unstable and weakly sheared environment in place.
Weak disturbances approaching from the west could result in a few
showers or even an isolated thunderstorm lingering after midnight...
but for the most part... convection should greatly diminish by
midnight. Although no widespread organized severe storms are
expected... some mid level dry air could enhance storm downdrafts...
resulting in a few strong to severe storms producing the occasional
50-60 mph wind gust this afternoon and evening... and this potential
threat will likely continue on Thursday. The weakly sheared
environment will result in very slow moving storms that will result
in locally heavy heavy rain for those fortunate areas that a storm
happens to drift over. These areas could easily see anywhere from
0.5 to 1.5 inches in a very short time... but the rain is much
needed. Also... cannot rule out some small to medium sized hail with
the freezing level down around 12kft... but would expect the main
convective threats to be strong... potentially damaging wind
gusts... and locally heavy rainfall.

Otherwise... expecting partly cloudy afternoons and mostly clear
nights with temperatures running about 5-8 degrees above normal. A
MAV and MET MOS blend for temperatures and pops looked reasonable
through the period.

39

.LONG TERM /Friday through Wednesday/...

Did not make too many changes to the current extended forecast grids
with this cycle as overall trends still look good. 12Z run of the
medium-range models all show some enhancement of the upper ridge
over the region Friday into Saturday as the southern plains closed
upper low begins shifting east. This may actually provide some
suppression of convection...but increase in low-level moisture and
instability is likely to offset this somewhat. Best chances for
widespread beneficial rainfall still appears to be late Saturday
though late Sunday as upper trough axis transits the area along with
an associated cold front. Although best upper dynamics remain well
north of the state...decent low/mid-level wind field accompanies the
front and along with moderate instability indicates we will need to
keep an eye on trends for severe thunderstorm potential Sunday.
Extended period of good northwesterly upper flow should drive the
cold front through the forecast area by early Monday allowing for
noticeably drier and milder air to dominate the region Monday
through Wednesday.

20

&&

AVIATION...
18Z Update...
VFR conditions expected to prevail through the taf period with brief
periods of bkn mid level cut each afternoon... especially in and
around afternoon convection. Continue to expect scattered afternoon
and evening showers and thunderstorms... with a tempo/prob30 TSRA
during the period 18-22z warranted each day. Current ESE winds
around 5-7kts should settle out more SSE this afternoon... then back
slightly more east tonight. Winds mix down more SSE by 15z Thu...
then veer over to SSW by 18z Thu. Speeds around 7kts or less on Thu.

//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...
Medium on wind direction. High on all other elements.

39

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          69  91  69  90 /  30  30  30  40
Atlanta         71  90  71  89 /  30  30  30  40
Blairsville     65  83  64  83 /  40  50  40  50
Cartersville    67  89  67  88 /  40  40  30  50
Columbus        70  92  71  93 /  20  30  20  30
Gainesville     69  87  69  88 /  40  40  40  50
Macon           68  93  69  93 /  30  30  20  40
Rome            68  90  67  88 /  30  40  30  50
Peachtree City  67  90  67  90 /  30  30  20  40
Vidalia         71  93  72  92 /  30  30  20  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...39
LONG TERM....20
AVIATION...39

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1115 AM EDT WED JUN 1 2016

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-021100-
BALDWIN-BANKS-BARROW-BARTOW-BIBB-BLECKLEY-BUTTS-CARROLL-CATOOSA-
CHATTAHOOCHEE-CHATTOOGA-CHEROKEE-CLARKE-CLAYTON-COBB-COWETA-
CRAWFORD-CRISP-DADE-DAWSON-DEKALB-DODGE-DOOLY-DOUGLAS-EMANUEL-
FANNIN-FAYETTE-FLOYD-FORSYTH-GILMER-GLASCOCK-GORDON-GREENE-
GWINNETT-HALL-HANCOCK-HARALSON-HARRIS-HEARD-HENRY-HOUSTON-JACKSON-
JASPER-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-JONES-LAMAR-LAURENS-LUMPKIN-MACON-
MADISON-MARION-MERIWETHER-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-MORGAN-MURRAY-
MUSCOGEE-NEWTON-NORTH FULTON-OCONEE-OGLETHORPE-PAULDING-PEACH-
PICKENS-PIKE-POLK-PULASKI-PUTNAM-ROCKDALE-SCHLEY-SOUTH FULTON-
SPALDING-STEWART-SUMTER-TALBOT-TALIAFERRO-TAYLOR-TELFAIR-TOOMBS-
TOWNS-TREUTLEN-TROUP-TWIGGS-UNION-UPSON-WALKER-WALTON-WARREN-
WASHINGTON-WEBSTER-WHEELER-WHITE-WHITFIELD-WILCOX-WILKES-
WILKINSON-
1115 AM EDT WED JUN 1 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL
GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA.

ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY IS LIMITED AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT
EXPECTED...A FEW STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE. THE MAIN THREAT FROM
ANY THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FREQUENT LIGHTNING...SMALL HAIL...LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL AND STRONG...GUSTY WINDS UP TO 45 MPH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK AND THIS WEEKEND AS MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY INCREASE ACROSS
THE REGION. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES DECREASE ONCE AGAIN AS WE HEAD INTO
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE MAIN THREAT FROM ANY THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
FREQUENT LIGHTNING...SMALL HAIL...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND
STRONG...GUSTY WINDS UP TO 45 MPH.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
330 PM EDT WED JUN 1 2016

GAZ016-023-012000-
WHITE GA-HALL GA-
330 PM EDT WED JUN 1 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN WHITE AND
NORTHEASTERN HALL COUNTIES UNTIL 400 PM EDT...

AT 330 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS NEAR CLERMONT...OR NEAR
CLEVELAND...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

  HAZARD...40 TO 50 MPH WIND...PEA SIZED HAIL...HEAVY RAIN...AND
           FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.

  IMPACT...PEOPLE OUTDOORS SHOULD SEEK SHELTER IMMEDIATELY. EXPECT
           MINOR DAMAGE TO TREE LIMBS AND BLOWING AROUND OF
           LIGHT...UNSECURED OBJECTS. ELECTRICAL APPLIANCES SHOULD
           NOT BE USED UNLESS IN AN EMERGENCY.

SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE
CLEVELAND...CLERMONT...MOSSY CREEK AND LEAF.

LAT...LON 3455 8362 3453 8364 3453 8363 3451 8367
      3443 8362 3442 8362 3442 8379 3450 8385
      3452 8384 3453 8383 3454 8384 3463 8373
TIME...MOT...LOC 1930Z 317DEG 9KT 3452 8376

DJN

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
337 PM EDT WED JUN 1 2016

GAZ042-012000-
CARROLL GA-
337 PM EDT WED JUN 1 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN CARROLL COUNTY UNTIL 400
PM EDT...

AT 337 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS NEAR CARROLLTON...MOVING
NORTH AT 10 MPH.

  HAZARD...40 TO 50 MPH WIND...PEA SIZED HAIL AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO
           GROUND LIGHTNING.

  IMPACT...PEOPLE OUTDOORS SHOULD SEEK SHELTER IMMEDIATELY. EXPECT
           MINOR DAMAGE TO TREE LIMBS AND BLOWING AROUND OF
           LIGHT...UNSECURED OBJECTS. ELECTRICAL APPLIANCES SHOULD
           NOT BE USED UNLESS IN AN EMERGENCY.

SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE
CARROLLTON...MOUNT ZION...LOWELL...CLEM AND JOHN TANNER STATE PARK.

LAT...LON 3346 8497 3347 8518 3360 8524 3367 8493
TIME...MOT...LOC 1937Z 175DEG 7KT 3353 8509

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
340 PM EDT WED JUN 01 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0325 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 N NEWNAN PINES        33.44N  84.78W
06/01/2016                   COWETA             GA   PUBLIC

            MULTIPLE LARGE TREES DOWN IN VICINITY OF BUDDY WEST AND
            HAPPY VALLEY CIRCLE.

&&

EVENT NUMBER FFC1600287

DJN

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
347 PM EDT WED JUN 1 2016

GAZ020-012015-
BARTOW GA-
347 PM EDT WED JUN 1 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WESTERN BARTOW COUNTY UNTIL 415
PM EDT...

AT 346 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS OVER KINGSTON...OR 10 MILES
NORTHWEST OF CARTERSVILLE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 5 MPH.

  HAZARD...40 TO 50 MPH WIND...PEA SIZED HAIL...HEAVY RAIN...AND
           FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.

  IMPACT...PEOPLE OUTDOORS SHOULD SEEK SHELTER IMMEDIATELY. EXPECT
           MINOR DAMAGE TO TREE LIMBS AND BLOWING AROUND OF
           LIGHT...UNSECURED OBJECTS. ELECTRICAL APPLIANCES SHOULD
           NOT BE USED UNLESS IN AN EMERGENCY.

SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE
CARTERSVILLE...EUHARLEE...KINGSTON AND CASSVILLE.

LAT...LON 3436 8500 3433 8488 3419 8477 3412 8489
      3418 8500
TIME...MOT...LOC 1946Z 209DEG 6KT 3424 8496

DJN

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
350 PM EDT WED JUN 1 2016

GAZ006-007-012015-
GILMER GA-FANNIN GA-
350 PM EDT WED JUN 1 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN GILMER AND NORTHWESTERN
FANNIN COUNTIES UNTIL 415 PM EDT...

AT 350 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS 12 MILES WEST OF BLUE
RIDGE...MOVING EAST AT 10 MPH.

  HAZARD...40 TO 50 MPH WIND...PEA SIZED HAIL...HEAVY RAIN...AND
           FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.

  IMPACT...PEOPLE OUTDOORS SHOULD SEEK SHELTER IMMEDIATELY. EXPECT
           MINOR DAMAGE TO TREE LIMBS AND BLOWING AROUND OF
           LIGHT...UNSECURED OBJECTS. ELECTRICAL APPLIANCES SHOULD
           NOT BE USED UNLESS IN AN EMERGENCY.

SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE
BLUE RIDGE...EPWORTH...HIGDON...COLWELL AND JONES MILL.

LAT...LON 3479 8433 3481 8459 3483 8458 3483 8459
      3484 8459 3484 8461 3489 8462 3491 8462
      3498 8432
TIME...MOT...LOC 1950Z 262DEG 9KT 3487 8454

DJN

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
407 PM EDT WED JUN 1 2016

GAZ105>108-012030-
CRISP GA-WILCOX GA-DOOLY GA-PULASKI GA-
407 PM EDT WED JUN 1 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EASTERN CRISP...WESTERN WILCOX...
SOUTHEASTERN DOOLY AND SOUTHWESTERN PULASKI COUNTIES UNTIL 430 PM
EDT...

AT 407 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS NEAR PITTS...OR 10 MILES
EAST OF CORDELE...MOVING NORTH AT 10 MPH.

  HAZARD...UP TO 40 MPH WIND...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING
           AND HEAVY RAIN.

  IMPACT...PEOPLE OUTDOORS SHOULD SEEK SHELTER IMMEDIATELY. EXPECT
           MINOR DAMAGE TO TREE LIMBS AND BLOWING AROUND OF
           LIGHT...UNSECURED OBJECTS. ELECTRICAL APPLIANCES SHOULD
           NOT BE USED UNLESS IN AN EMERGENCY. LOCALIZED FLOODING IN
           LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS IS ALSO LIKELY.
           MOTORISTS SHOULD SLOW DOWN AND BE PREPARED FOR POSSIBLE
           LOSS OF CONTROL DUE TO HYDROPLANING.  WHEN WATER COVERS
           THE ROAD...REMEMBER TO TURN AROUND DON'T DROWN.

SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE
CORDELE...VIENNA...ROCHELLE...PINEVIEW...PITTS...TREMONT...POPE
CITY... HATLEY...WENONA...TIPPETTVILLE...PLEASANT
VIEW...SEVILLE...FINLEYSON AND EAST CRISP.

LAT...LON 3185 8374 3215 8378 3216 8344 3189 8348
TIME...MOT...LOC 2007Z 175DEG 7KT 3196 8359