Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
305 PM EDT WED JUN 1 2016

.SHORT TERM /Tonight through Thursday Night/...

A summer time pattern will continue as mainly diurnally driven
scattered afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms persist
with a moderately unstable and weakly sheared environment in place.
Weak disturbances approaching from the west could result in a few
showers or even an isolated thunderstorm lingering after midnight...
but for the most part... convection should greatly diminish by
midnight. Although no widespread organized severe storms are
expected... some mid level dry air could enhance storm downdrafts...
resulting in a few strong to severe storms producing the occasional
50-60 mph wind gust this afternoon and evening... and this potential
threat will likely continue on Thursday. The weakly sheared
environment will result in very slow moving storms that will result
in locally heavy heavy rain for those fortunate areas that a storm
happens to drift over. These areas could easily see anywhere from
0.5 to 1.5 inches in a very short time... but the rain is much
needed. Also... cannot rule out some small to medium sized hail with
the freezing level down around 12kft... but would expect the main
convective threats to be strong... potentially damaging wind
gusts... and locally heavy rainfall.

Otherwise... expecting partly cloudy afternoons and mostly clear
nights with temperatures running about 5-8 degrees above normal. A
MAV and MET MOS blend for temperatures and pops looked reasonable
through the period.

39

.LONG TERM /Friday through Wednesday/...

Did not make too many changes to the current extended forecast grids
with this cycle as overall trends still look good. 12Z run of the
medium-range models all show some enhancement of the upper ridge
over the region Friday into Saturday as the southern plains closed
upper low begins shifting east. This may actually provide some
suppression of convection...but increase in low-level moisture and
instability is likely to offset this somewhat. Best chances for
widespread beneficial rainfall still appears to be late Saturday
though late Sunday as upper trough axis transits the area along with
an associated cold front. Although best upper dynamics remain well
north of the state...decent low/mid-level wind field accompanies the
front and along with moderate instability indicates we will need to
keep an eye on trends for severe thunderstorm potential Sunday.
Extended period of good northwesterly upper flow should drive the
cold front through the forecast area by early Monday allowing for
noticeably drier and milder air to dominate the region Monday
through Wednesday.

20

&&

AVIATION...
18Z Update...
VFR conditions expected to prevail through the taf period with brief
periods of bkn mid level cut each afternoon... especially in and
around afternoon convection. Continue to expect scattered afternoon
and evening showers and thunderstorms... with a tempo/prob30 TSRA
during the period 18-22z warranted each day. Current ESE winds
around 5-7kts should settle out more SSE this afternoon... then back
slightly more east tonight. Winds mix down more SSE by 15z Thu...
then veer over to SSW by 18z Thu. Speeds around 7kts or less on Thu.

//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...
Medium on wind direction. High on all other elements.

39

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          69  91  69  90 /  30  30  30  40
Atlanta         71  90  71  89 /  30  30  30  40
Blairsville     65  83  64  83 /  40  50  40  50
Cartersville    67  89  67  88 /  40  40  30  50
Columbus        70  92  71  93 /  20  30  20  30
Gainesville     69  87  69  88 /  40  40  40  50
Macon           68  93  69  93 /  30  30  20  40
Rome            68  90  67  88 /  30  40  30  50
Peachtree City  67  90  67  90 /  30  30  20  40
Vidalia         71  93  72  92 /  30  30  20  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...39
LONG TERM....20
AVIATION...39

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
535 PM EDT WED JUN 1 2016

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-021100-
BALDWIN-BANKS-BARROW-BARTOW-BIBB-BLECKLEY-BUTTS-CARROLL-CATOOSA-
CHATTAHOOCHEE-CHATTOOGA-CHEROKEE-CLARKE-CLAYTON-COBB-COWETA-
CRAWFORD-CRISP-DADE-DAWSON-DEKALB-DODGE-DOOLY-DOUGLAS-EMANUEL-
FANNIN-FAYETTE-FLOYD-FORSYTH-GILMER-GLASCOCK-GORDON-GREENE-
GWINNETT-HALL-HANCOCK-HARALSON-HARRIS-HEARD-HENRY-HOUSTON-JACKSON-
JASPER-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-JONES-LAMAR-LAURENS-LUMPKIN-MACON-
MADISON-MARION-MERIWETHER-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-MORGAN-MURRAY-
MUSCOGEE-NEWTON-NORTH FULTON-OCONEE-OGLETHORPE-PAULDING-PEACH-
PICKENS-PIKE-POLK-PULASKI-PUTNAM-ROCKDALE-SCHLEY-SOUTH FULTON-
SPALDING-STEWART-SUMTER-TALBOT-TALIAFERRO-TAYLOR-TELFAIR-TOOMBS-
TOWNS-TREUTLEN-TROUP-TWIGGS-UNION-UPSON-WALKER-WALTON-WARREN-
WASHINGTON-WEBSTER-WHEELER-WHITE-WHITFIELD-WILCOX-WILKES-
WILKINSON-
535 PM EDT WED JUN 1 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL
GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND THIS EVENING ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA. A FEW STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY.

MODERATE INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH STRONG DAYTIME HEATING HAS
RESULTED IN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTH AND
CENTRAL GEORGIA...A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS HAVE ALREADY BEEN
OBSERVED. THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
EVENING...DIMINISHING AS WE MOVE INTO THE LATE EVENING. THE MAIN
THREAT FROM ANY THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FREQUENT LIGHTNING...HAIL...
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND STRONG...POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK AND THIS WEEKEND AS MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY INCREASE ACROSS
THE REGION. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES DECREASE ONCE AGAIN AS WE HEAD INTO
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE MAIN THREAT FROM ANY THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
FREQUENT LIGHTNING...SMALL HAIL...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND
STRONG...GUSTY WINDS UP TO 45 MPH.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
556 PM EDT WED JUN 1 2016

GAZ025-027-036-012230-
MADISON GA-CLARKE GA-JACKSON GA-
556 PM EDT WED JUN 1 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN MADISON...
NORTHEASTERN CLARKE AND EASTERN JACKSON COUNTIES UNTIL 630 PM EDT...

AT 555 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS NEAR HULL...OR 7 MILES
NORTH OF ATHENS...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 5 MPH.

  HAZARD...40 TO 50 MPH WIND...PEA SIZED HAIL...HEAVY RAIN...AND
           FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.

  IMPACT...PEOPLE OUTDOORS SHOULD SEEK SHELTER IMMEDIATELY. EXPECT
           MINOR DAMAGE TO TREE LIMBS AND BLOWING AROUND OF
           LIGHT...UNSECURED OBJECTS. ELECTRICAL APPLIANCES SHOULD
           NOT BE USED UNLESS IN AN EMERGENCY.

SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE
COLBERT...HULL...ATHENS-CLARKE COUNTY...NEESE...BARRETTS
MILL...DIAMOND HILL...SANDY CREEK RECREATION AREA AND JAMES HOLLAND
YOUTH SPORTS CMPX.

LAT...LON 3414 8325 3402 8318 3401 8320 3401 8324
      3400 8342 3409 8342 3416 8332
TIME...MOT...LOC 2155Z 244DEG 6KT 3406 8335

DJN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
609 PM EDT WED JUN 01 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0531 PM     TSTM WND DMG     UVALDA                  32.04N  82.51W
06/01/2016                   MONTGOMERY         GA   911 CALL CENTER

            911 CALL CENTER RECEIVED REPORT OF 1 TREE DOWN ON
            MARTIN LUTHER KING DRIVE NEAR UVALDA.

&&

EVENT NUMBER FFC1600299

KOVACIK

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
613 PM EDT WED JUN 1 2016

GAZ007-012245-
GILMER GA-
613 PM EDT WED JUN 1 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR GILMER COUNTY UNTIL 645 PM EDT...

AT 613 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS OVER ELLIJAY...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

  HAZARD...40 TO 50 MPH WIND...PEA SIZED HAIL...HEAVY RAIN...AND
           FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.

  IMPACT...PEOPLE OUTDOORS SHOULD SEEK SHELTER IMMEDIATELY. EXPECT
           MINOR DAMAGE TO TREE LIMBS AND BLOWING AROUND OF
           LIGHT...UNSECURED OBJECTS. ELECTRICAL APPLIANCES SHOULD
           NOT BE USED UNLESS IN AN EMERGENCY.

SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE ELLIJAY...EAST
ELLIJAY...ROY...MOUNTAINTOWN...CARTECAY...CHERRY LOG AND PISGAH.

LAT...LON 3458 8449 3470 8461 3484 8449 3477 8430
      3465 8429
TIME...MOT...LOC 2213Z 230DEG 13KT 3468 8449

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
617 PM EDT WED JUN 1 2016

GAZ027-038-039-012245-
MADISON GA-OGLETHORPE GA-WILKES GA-
617 PM EDT WED JUN 1 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EASTERN MADISON...NORTHEASTERN
OGLETHORPE AND WILKES COUNTIES UNTIL 645 PM EDT...

AT 617 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS NEAR CARLTON...OR 10 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF ELBERTON. THIS STORM WAS NEARLY STATIONARY.

  HAZARD...40 TO 50 MPH WIND...UP TO PENNY SIZED HAIL...FREQUENT
           CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND HEAVY RAIN.

  IMPACT...PEOPLE OUTDOORS SHOULD SEEK SHELTER IMMEDIATELY. EXPECT
           MINOR DAMAGE TO TREE LIMBS AND BLOWING AROUND OF
           LIGHT...UNSECURED OBJECTS. ELECTRICAL APPLIANCES SHOULD
           NOT BE USED UNLESS IN AN EMERGENCY. LOCALIZED FLOODING IN
           LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS IS ALSO LIKELY.
           MOTORISTS SHOULD SLOW DOWN AND BE PREPARED FOR POSSIBLE
           LOSS OF CONTROL DUE TO HYDROPLANING. WHEN WATER COVERS
           THE ROAD...REMEMBER TO TURN AROUND DON'T DROWN.

SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE
WASHINGTON...COMER...TIGNALL...CARLTON...SMITHONIA...VESTA...HOLLIDAY
PARK... POINT PETER...JACKSONS CROSSROADS...DELHI...WATSON MILL
BRIDGE STATE PARK...NEWTOWN...METASVILLE...FLORAL
HILL...MALLORYSVILLE...PAOLI...NORMAN AND DANBURG.

LAT...LON 3378 8283 3400 8319 3425 8320 3421 8309
      3417 8310 3415 8306 3409 8302 3401 8293
      3399 8287 3398 8286 3397 8278 3399 8265
      3386 8261 3387 8257 3383 8260 3365 8249
TIME...MOT...LOC 2217Z 282DEG 3KT 3400 8299

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
618 PM EDT WED JUN 1 2016

GAZ047-048-012245-
NEWTON GA-WALTON GA-
618 PM EDT WED JUN 1 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN NEWTON AND SOUTHERN
WALTON COUNTIES UNTIL 645 PM EDT...

AT 618 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS NEAR SOCIAL CIRCLE...OR
NEAR COVINGTON...MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.

  HAZARD...40 TO 50 MPH WIND...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING
           AND HEAVY RAIN.

  IMPACT...PEOPLE OUTDOORS SHOULD SEEK SHELTER IMMEDIATELY. EXPECT
           MINOR DAMAGE TO TREE LIMBS AND BLOWING AROUND OF
           LIGHT...UNSECURED OBJECTS. ELECTRICAL APPLIANCES SHOULD
           NOT BE USED UNLESS IN AN EMERGENCY. LOCALIZED FLOODING IN
           LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS IS ALSO LIKELY.
           MOTORISTS SHOULD SLOW DOWN AND BE PREPARED FOR POSSIBLE
           LOSS OF CONTROL DUE TO HYDROPLANING. WHEN WATER COVERS
           THE ROAD...REMEMBER TO TURN AROUND DON'T DROWN.

SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE
COVINGTON...SOCIAL CIRCLE...OXFORD...JERSEY...BRICK STORE AND
HERNDONVILLE.

LAT...LON 3372 8364 3361 8367 3359 8369 3357 8368
      3353 8369 3362 8388 3373 8387
TIME...MOT...LOC 2218Z 286DEG 12KT 3364 8379

DJN

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
623 PM EDT WED JUN 1 2016

GAZ059-012300-
JASPER GA-
623 PM EDT WED JUN 1 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN JASPER COUNTY UNTIL
700 PM EDT...

AT 623 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS NEAR SHADY DALE...OR NEAR
MONTICELLO. THIS STORM WAS NEARLY STATIONARY.

  HAZARD...40 TO 50 MPH WIND...UP TO PENNY SIZED HAIL...FREQUENT
           CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND HEAVY RAIN.

  IMPACT...PEOPLE OUTDOORS SHOULD SEEK SHELTER IMMEDIATELY. EXPECT
           MINOR DAMAGE TO TREE LIMBS AND BLOWING AROUND OF
           LIGHT...UNSECURED OBJECTS. ELECTRICAL APPLIANCES SHOULD
           NOT BE USED UNLESS IN AN EMERGENCY. LOCALIZED FLOODING IN
           LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS IS ALSO LIKELY.
           MOTORISTS SHOULD SLOW DOWN AND BE PREPARED FOR POSSIBLE
           LOSS OF CONTROL DUE TO HYDROPLANING. WHEN WATER COVERS
           THE ROAD...REMEMBER TO TURN AROUND DON'T DROWN.

SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE
MONTICELLO...SHADY DALE...CALVIN AND FARRAR.

LAT...LON 3339 8354 3337 8354 3325 8355 3332 8373
      3348 8369 3349 8367 3350 8368 3351 8368
      3349 8362 3343 8353
TIME...MOT...LOC 2223Z 204DEG 3KT 3335 8360