Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
305 PM EDT WED JUN 1 2016

.SHORT TERM /Tonight through Thursday Night/...

A summer time pattern will continue as mainly diurnally driven
scattered afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms persist
with a moderately unstable and weakly sheared environment in place.
Weak disturbances approaching from the west could result in a few
showers or even an isolated thunderstorm lingering after midnight...
but for the most part... convection should greatly diminish by
midnight. Although no widespread organized severe storms are
expected... some mid level dry air could enhance storm downdrafts...
resulting in a few strong to severe storms producing the occasional
50-60 mph wind gust this afternoon and evening... and this potential
threat will likely continue on Thursday. The weakly sheared
environment will result in very slow moving storms that will result
in locally heavy heavy rain for those fortunate areas that a storm
happens to drift over. These areas could easily see anywhere from
0.5 to 1.5 inches in a very short time... but the rain is much
needed. Also... cannot rule out some small to medium sized hail with
the freezing level down around 12kft... but would expect the main
convective threats to be strong... potentially damaging wind
gusts... and locally heavy rainfall.

Otherwise... expecting partly cloudy afternoons and mostly clear
nights with temperatures running about 5-8 degrees above normal. A
MAV and MET MOS blend for temperatures and pops looked reasonable
through the period.

39

.LONG TERM /Friday through Wednesday/...

Did not make too many changes to the current extended forecast grids
with this cycle as overall trends still look good. 12Z run of the
medium-range models all show some enhancement of the upper ridge
over the region Friday into Saturday as the southern plains closed
upper low begins shifting east. This may actually provide some
suppression of convection...but increase in low-level moisture and
instability is likely to offset this somewhat. Best chances for
widespread beneficial rainfall still appears to be late Saturday
though late Sunday as upper trough axis transits the area along with
an associated cold front. Although best upper dynamics remain well
north of the state...decent low/mid-level wind field accompanies the
front and along with moderate instability indicates we will need to
keep an eye on trends for severe thunderstorm potential Sunday.
Extended period of good northwesterly upper flow should drive the
cold front through the forecast area by early Monday allowing for
noticeably drier and milder air to dominate the region Monday
through Wednesday.

20

&&

AVIATION...
18Z Update...
VFR conditions expected to prevail through the taf period with brief
periods of bkn mid level cut each afternoon... especially in and
around afternoon convection. Continue to expect scattered afternoon
and evening showers and thunderstorms... with a tempo/prob30 TSRA
during the period 18-22z warranted each day. Current ESE winds
around 5-7kts should settle out more SSE this afternoon... then back
slightly more east tonight. Winds mix down more SSE by 15z Thu...
then veer over to SSW by 18z Thu. Speeds around 7kts or less on Thu.

//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...
Medium on wind direction. High on all other elements.

39

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          69  91  69  90 /  30  30  30  40
Atlanta         71  90  71  89 /  30  30  30  40
Blairsville     65  83  64  83 /  40  50  40  50
Cartersville    67  89  67  88 /  40  40  30  50
Columbus        70  92  71  93 /  20  30  20  30
Gainesville     69  87  69  88 /  40  40  40  50
Macon           68  93  69  93 /  30  30  20  40
Rome            68  90  67  88 /  30  40  30  50
Peachtree City  67  90  67  90 /  30  30  20  40
Vidalia         71  93  72  92 /  30  30  20  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...39
LONG TERM....20
AVIATION...39

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1115 AM EDT WED JUN 1 2016

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-021100-
BALDWIN-BANKS-BARROW-BARTOW-BIBB-BLECKLEY-BUTTS-CARROLL-CATOOSA-
CHATTAHOOCHEE-CHATTOOGA-CHEROKEE-CLARKE-CLAYTON-COBB-COWETA-
CRAWFORD-CRISP-DADE-DAWSON-DEKALB-DODGE-DOOLY-DOUGLAS-EMANUEL-
FANNIN-FAYETTE-FLOYD-FORSYTH-GILMER-GLASCOCK-GORDON-GREENE-
GWINNETT-HALL-HANCOCK-HARALSON-HARRIS-HEARD-HENRY-HOUSTON-JACKSON-
JASPER-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-JONES-LAMAR-LAURENS-LUMPKIN-MACON-
MADISON-MARION-MERIWETHER-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-MORGAN-MURRAY-
MUSCOGEE-NEWTON-NORTH FULTON-OCONEE-OGLETHORPE-PAULDING-PEACH-
PICKENS-PIKE-POLK-PULASKI-PUTNAM-ROCKDALE-SCHLEY-SOUTH FULTON-
SPALDING-STEWART-SUMTER-TALBOT-TALIAFERRO-TAYLOR-TELFAIR-TOOMBS-
TOWNS-TREUTLEN-TROUP-TWIGGS-UNION-UPSON-WALKER-WALTON-WARREN-
WASHINGTON-WEBSTER-WHEELER-WHITE-WHITFIELD-WILCOX-WILKES-
WILKINSON-
1115 AM EDT WED JUN 1 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL
GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA.

ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY IS LIMITED AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT
EXPECTED...A FEW STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE. THE MAIN THREAT FROM
ANY THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FREQUENT LIGHTNING...SMALL HAIL...LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL AND STRONG...GUSTY WINDS UP TO 45 MPH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK AND THIS WEEKEND AS MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY INCREASE ACROSS
THE REGION. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES DECREASE ONCE AGAIN AS WE HEAD INTO
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE MAIN THREAT FROM ANY THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
FREQUENT LIGHTNING...SMALL HAIL...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND
STRONG...GUSTY WINDS UP TO 45 MPH.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
452 PM EDT WED JUN 01 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0440 PM     HAIL             MUSSELWHITE             31.95N  83.70W
06/01/2016  E1.00 INCH       CRISP              GA   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

EVENT NUMBER FFC1600293

20

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
456 PM EDT WED JUN 1 2016

GAZ051-062-012130-
TALIAFERRO GA-WARREN GA-
456 PM EDT WED JUN 1 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN TALIAFERRO AND
NORTHWESTERN WARREN COUNTIES UNTIL 530 PM EDT...

AT 455 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS NEAR SHARON...OR NEAR
CRAWFORDVILLE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

  HAZARD...40 TO 50 MPH WIND...PEA SIZED HAIL AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO
           GROUND LIGHTNING.

  IMPACT...PEOPLE OUTDOORS SHOULD SEEK SHELTER IMMEDIATELY. EXPECT
           MINOR DAMAGE TO TREE LIMBS AND BLOWING AROUND OF
           LIGHT...UNSECURED OBJECTS. ELECTRICAL APPLIANCES SHOULD
           NOT BE USED UNLESS IN AN EMERGENCY.

SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE
NORWOOD...SHARON...RAYTOWN...BARNETT AND CADLEY.

LAT...LON 3339 8275 3350 8292 3362 8280 3352 8261
TIME...MOT...LOC 2055Z 213DEG 7KT 3351 8280

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
459 PM EDT WED JUN 01 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0440 PM     HAIL             MUSSELWHITE             31.95N  83.70W
06/01/2016  E1.00 INCH       CRISP              GA   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            A CRISP COUNTY SHERIFFS DEPUTY REPORTED QUARTER-SIZED
            HAIL ALONG U.S. HIGHWAY 280 EAST OF CORDELE.

&&

CORRECTED REMARKS

EVENT NUMBER FFC1600293

20

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
500 PM EDT WED JUN 1 2016

GAZ031-032-043-012130-
COBB GA-PAULDING GA-DOUGLAS GA-
500 PM EDT WED JUN 1 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN COBB...SOUTHEASTERN
PAULDING AND NORTHERN DOUGLAS COUNTIES UNTIL 530 PM EDT...

AT 500 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS OVER POWDER SPRINGS...OR 7
MILES NORTHEAST OF DOUGLASVILLE...MOVING NORTH AT 10 MPH.

  HAZARD...40 TO 50 MPH WIND...PEA SIZED HAIL AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO
           GROUND LIGHTNING.

  IMPACT...PEOPLE OUTDOORS SHOULD SEEK SHELTER IMMEDIATELY. EXPECT
           MINOR DAMAGE TO TREE LIMBS AND BLOWING AROUND OF
           LIGHT...UNSECURED OBJECTS. ELECTRICAL APPLIANCES SHOULD
           NOT BE USED UNLESS IN AN EMERGENCY.

SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE POWDER
SPRINGS...AUSTELL...HIRAM...LITHIA SPRINGS...BROWNSVILLE AND LOST
MOUNTAIN PARK.

LAT...LON 3379 8464 3379 8478 3391 8479 3396 8467
      3388 8459
TIME...MOT...LOC 2100Z 189DEG 9KT 3385 8469

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
502 PM EDT WED JUN 01 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0350 PM     TSTM WND DMG     PINE MOUNTAIN VALLEY    32.80N  84.82W
06/01/2016                   HARRIS             GA   911 CALL CENTER

            911 CALL CENTER RECEIVED REPORT OF 1 TREE DOWN ON
            POWERLINE ON SOUTH L STREET IN PINE MOUNTAIN VALLEY.

&&

EVENT NUMBER FFC1600294

KOVACIK

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
502 PM EDT WED JUN 1 2016

GAZ035-037-012130-
OCONEE GA-BARROW GA-
502 PM EDT WED JUN 1 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN OCONEE AND
SOUTHEASTERN BARROW COUNTIES UNTIL 530 PM EDT...

AT 502 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS NEAR STATHAM...OR 9 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF WINDER...MOVING NORTHWEST AT 10 MPH.

  HAZARD...40 TO 50 MPH WIND...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING
           AND HEAVY RAIN.

  IMPACT...PEOPLE OUTDOORS SHOULD SEEK SHELTER IMMEDIATELY. EXPECT
           MINOR DAMAGE TO TREE LIMBS AND BLOWING AROUND OF
           LIGHT...UNSECURED OBJECTS. ELECTRICAL APPLIANCES SHOULD
           NOT BE USED UNLESS IN AN EMERGENCY. LOCALIZED FLOODING IN
           LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS IS ALSO LIKELY.
           MOTORISTS SHOULD SLOW DOWN AND BE PREPARED FOR POSSIBLE
           LOSS OF CONTROL DUE TO HYDROPLANING. WHEN WATER COVERS
           THE ROAD...REMEMBER TO TURN AROUND DON'T DROWN.

SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE
STATHAM...BOGART AND EASTVILLE.

LAT...LON 3394 8352 3393 8351 3393 8350 3388 8345
      3382 8353 3387 8359 3388 8358 3388 8361
      3392 8365 3397 8361 3398 8355
TIME...MOT...LOC 2102Z 145DEG 10KT 3392 8358