Special Weather Statement, NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
654 AM CDT SUN MAY 29 2016

.AVIATION... /12z TAFS/

A small but heavy rain producing complex of storms will impact
SAT/SSF over the next couple hours. The complex was cycling
overnight with periods of strengthening, but should have shifted
east of the taf sites by around 15z. Much of the model solutions
indicate another round of convection moving south from West
Central TX. The subsident and modified air mass behind the complex
will likely help keep morning cigs mainly IFR to MVFR this
morning as opposed to some areas away on the east side of the
complex over the Coastal Prairies. Mixing out to VFR skies is
forecast in the early afternoon, but may happen sooner given the
presence of the weakening complex. Likewise, the forecast next
round of convection may be impacted by with worked over air and
may also lead to impacts over TAF sites in the afternoon. Based on
where the rains fell, there is a chance that showers and storms
could impact the AUS area this afternoon. All areas may be
destabilized in the evening and overnight. Given that models have
had a difficult time depicting storm timing and location, the
extended periods of the TAFs are simplified with minimal
convection implications until a better trend can be established.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 314 AM CDT SUN MAY 29 2016/

SHORT TERM (Today through Monday)...
Showers and thunderstorms continue between San Antonio and Del Rio
with rains into much of the Hill Country spreading to the I-35
corridor northeast of San Antonio. Expect this to persist a few
more hours, then wane later this morning. However, river flooding
will continue for some areas through much of today. Surface
boundaries from ongoing storms, the dryline over western Texas,
and the Serranias del Burro over Mexico will all serve as focus
and lifting mechanisms for showers and thunderstorms to develop as
convective temperatures are reached today and again Monday. Most
models show the showers and thunderstorms organizing into clusters
(MCS) and moving across mainly the northwestern half of South
Central Texas. Forecast soundings indicate a potential for
isolated strong to severe storms. Motion vectors show some storms
will move slowly making locally heavy rains possible. These could
result in flash flooding and renewed river flooding in areas that
have received heavy rains recently. Many areas may not receive
much rain and the various models showing differing locations of
the heaviest rains.

LONG TERM (Monday Night through Saturday)...
The short term pattern persists into Tuesday with development of
showers and thunderstorms, then organizing into MCS with strong
to severe and locally heavy rains possible. On Wednesday into
Thursday, an upper level low currently near Point Conception on
the California coast slowly moves across Texas. At the same time,
a cold front drifts across South Central Texas. Moisture levels
increase with convergence leading to PWS of near 2 inches. The
threat for heavy rains becomes more widespread with a greater
chance for flash flooding and river flooding, especially if heavy
rains develop in the short term and moisten the soils further and
maintain high flows in rivers and streams. The upper level low
slowly moves off to the east Friday into next weekend per GFS
while the ECMWF keeps it a bit further to the west and closer to
South Central Texas. Will end rains on Friday, however, should the
ECMWF hold, then rain chances continue next weekend, as well.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              87  71  86  72  85 /  60  30  40  20  50
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  87  70  86  71  85 /  60  30  40  20  50
New Braunfels Muni Airport     88  71  86  72  85 /  60  30  40  30  50
Burnet Muni Airport            85  69  84  70  82 /  30  30  40  30  50
Del Rio Intl Airport           89  73  87  73  89 /  40  40  40  40  40
Georgetown Muni Airport        85  69  85  70  84 /  30  30  40  20  50
Hondo Muni Airport             89  72  86  72  86 /  30  30  40  40  50
San Marcos Muni Airport        86  71  85  71  85 /  60  30  40  20  50
La Grange - Fayette Regional   88  72  86  72  85 /  50  20  30  20  40
San Antonio Intl Airport       88  73  87  73  86 /  60  30  40  30  50
Stinson Muni Airport           89  73  88  73  87 /  60  30  40  30  50

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

Mesoscale/Aviation...Oaks
Synoptic/Grids...04

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
322 AM CDT SUN MAY 29 2016

TXZ171>173-183>194-202>209-217>225-228-300830-
LLANO-BURNET-WILLIAMSON-VAL VERDE-EDWARDS-REAL-KERR-BANDERA-
GILLESPIE-KENDALL-BLANCO-HAYS-TRAVIS-BASTROP-LEE-KINNEY-UVALDE-
MEDINA-BEXAR-COMAL-GUADALUPE-CALDWELL-FAYETTE-MAVERICK-ZAVALA-
FRIO-ATASCOSA-WILSON-KARNES-GONZALES-DE WITT-LAVACA-DIMMIT-
322 AM CDT SUN MAY 29 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF
I-35. PRIMARY SEVERE THREATS ARE FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS. SOME STORMS WILL PRODUCE VERY HEAVY RAINFALL RATES...AND
SPOTTY RAINFALL TOTALS OF 2-4 INCH ARE FORECAST WHICH COULD LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

A CONTINUED ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY
WITH NUMEROUS ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. ANY
STORM CLUSTERS THAT DEVELOP WILL HAVE A CHANCE TO PRODUCE SEVERE
WEATHER AND TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES. HEAVIEST RAIN
POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR WHEN A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
THURSDAY. BY THIS TIME...THERE WILL LIKELY BE A FEW LOCATIONS WITH
5-DAY STORM TOTALS IN EXCESS OF 8 INCHES. PLEASE STAY TUNED FOR
FURTHER UPDATES AS IMPACTS FROM POTENTIAL HAZARDS BECOME MORE
CLEAR.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

PLEASE REPORT ANY SEVERE WEATHER OR FLOODING TO THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
456 AM CDT SUN MAY 29 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0445 AM     FLOOD            SAN ANTONIO             29.43N  98.49W
05/29/2016                   BEXAR              TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            I-35 SOUTHBOUND AT NOGOLITOS CLOSED DUE TO FLOODING

&&

EVENT NUMBER EWX1600491

MCO

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
520 AM CDT SUN MAY 29 2016

TXZ205-291100-
BEXAR TX-
520 AM CDT SUN MAY 29 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN BEXAR COUNTY UNTIL
600 AM CDT...

AT 520 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER
CASTROVILLE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS OF 50 TO 55 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
SAN ANTONIO...LEON VALLEY...HELOTES...CROSS MOUNTAIN...SEA WORLD...CASTLE
HILLS...BALCONES HEIGHTS...GREY FOREST AND FIESTA TEXAS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD
TO LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 10 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO
STATIONS AND AVAILABLE TELEVISION STATIONS FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

&&

LAT...LON 2963 9881 2971 9874 2953 9851 2930 9880
TIME...MOT...LOC 1020Z 222DEG 19KT 2938 9888

ALLEN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
526 AM CDT SUN MAY 29 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0526 AM     HAIL             CASTROVILLE             29.35N  98.87W
05/29/2016  E0.25 INCH       MEDINA             TX   PUBLIC

            PEA SIZED HAIL REPORTED AT A RESTURANT IN CASTROVILLE.

&&

EVENT NUMBER EWX1600492

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
558 AM CDT SUN MAY 29 2016

TXZ219-291145-
FRIO TX-
558 AM CDT SUN MAY 29 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN FRIO COUNTY UNTIL
645 AM CDT...

AT 557 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR
MILLET...OR NEAR DILLEY...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
PEARSALL...DILLEY...DIVOT AND DERBY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD
TO LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 10 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO
STATIONS AND AVAILABLE TELEVISION STATIONS FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

&&

LAT...LON 2890 9913 2870 9893 2864 9902 2864 9940
TIME...MOT...LOC 1057Z 232DEG 21KT 2863 9926

ALLEN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
750 AM CDT SUN MAY 29 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0950 PM     HAIL             1 NNE SABINAL           29.33N  99.47W
05/28/2016  E1.00 INCH       UVALDE             TX   COCORAHS

            QUARTER SIZED HAIL WAS REPORTED ABOUT A HALF MILE NNE
            OF SABINAL.

&&

EVENT NUMBER EWX1600493

TB3

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
914 AM CDT SUN MAY 29 2016

TXZ207-221>223-291500-
WILSON TX-GUADALUPE TX-KARNES TX-GONZALES TX-
914 AM CDT SUN MAY 29 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN KARNES...GONZALES...
SOUTHEASTERN GUADALUPE AND WILSON COUNTIES UNTIL 1000 AM CDT...

AT 913 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING STRONG WINDS ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM 7 MILES NORTH OF SMILEY TO 8 MILES EAST OF LEMING.
MOVEMENT WAS EAST AT 20 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS WHICH MAY
RESULT IN DAMAGE TO TREES...POWER LINES...OR SMALL STRUCTURES.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
GONZALES...FLORESVILLE...POTH...STOCKDALE...KOSCIUSKO...NIXON...FALLS CITY...
SMILEY...CHEAPSIDE...GILLETT...PANDORA...PALMETO...SUTHERLAND SPRINGS...
CESTOHOWA...WRIGHTSBORO...BELMONT...DREYER...MONTHALIA...OTTINE AND
LEESVILLE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER...CONTACT YOUR NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT
AGENCY. THEY WILL RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
OFFICE IN AUSTIN SAN ANTONIO.

&&

LAT...LON 2938 9724 2911 9760 2914 9766 2899 9801
      2898 9828 2907 9837 2960 9778 2964 9763
      2959 9719
TIME...MOT...LOC 1413Z 261DEG 19KT 2937 9761 2908 9834

TB3