Severe Thunderstorm Warning 171, NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

251 
WWUS54 KEWX 290147
SVSEWX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
847 PM CDT SAT MAY 28 2016

TXC265-385-290215-
/O.CON.KEWX.SV.W.0171.000000T0000Z-160529T0215Z/
KERR TX-REAL TX-
847 PM CDT SAT MAY 28 2016

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 915 PM CDT
FOR NORTHWESTERN KERR AND NORTHEASTERN REAL COUNTIES...

AT 847 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 9 MILES NORTHWEST OF
KERR WILDLIFE MANAGEMENT AREA...OR 22 MILES SOUTHEAST OF JUNCTION...
MOVING SOUTH AT 15 MPH.

HAZARD...TWO INCH HAIL AND 70 MPH WIND GUSTS. 

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. 

IMPACT...PEOPLE AND ANIMALS OUTDOORS WILL BE INJURED. EXPECT HAIL 
         DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING...WINDOWS...AND VEHICLES. EXPECT 
         CONSIDERABLE TREE DAMAGE. WIND DAMAGE IS ALSO LIKELY TO 
         MOBILE HOMES...ROOFS...AND OUTBUILDINGS. 

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
HUNT...KERR WILDLIFE MANAGEMENT AREA...US-83 NEAR THE KERR-
KIMBLE COUNTY LINE...I-10 NEAR THE KIMBLE-
KERR COUNTY LINE AND THE INTERSECTION OF I-10 AND US 290.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD TO
FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 3029 9948 2999 9925 2998 9979 3008 9977
      3008 9976 3012 9976 3029 9972
TIME...MOT...LOC 0147Z 002DEG 15KT 3019 9961 

HAIL...2.00IN
WIND...70MPH
 
$$

MSL

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
628 PM CDT SAT MAY 28 2016

.AVIATION.../00z Update/
Concerns this forecast will be convection this evening and then
the development of MVFR/IFR cigs. Currently isolated showers and
thunderstorms have developed west of I-35. Expecting to see more
development this evening. If the convection does develop and can
last long enough we may see some approach the I-35 sites after
06z. prior to that showers are possible and have included a VCSH
group for KSAT/KSSF. Convection west of KDRT may get close to Del
Rio but timing is not certain and for this reason I did include a
VCTS through 02z. Onset of MVFR cigs likely to be a couple hours
sooner tonight and have all the I-35 terminals seeing the cigs
lower starting 04z- 05z. After 07z-08z should see IFR cigs along
I-35. KDRT will see MVFR cigs starting around 08z with the IFR
cigs expected around 12z. VFR conditions are expected after 17z-
18z. All site have the potential to see fog due to the wet ground.
Lowest visibilities likely at KAUS (2SM) with all other terminals
remaining in the 4sm-6sm range. E/SE winds near 10 knots tonight
then SE 10-15 knots after 15z Sunday. KDRT will see wind gusts to
around 20 knots after 18z through sunset.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 304 PM CDT SAT MAY 28 2016/

SHORT TERM (Tonight through Sunday Night)...
At 230 PM, South Central Texas surface analysis showed
temperatures ranging from the mid 80s to low 90s with dewpoints in
the low to mid 70s, showing the entire CWA as quite moist and
unstable. North and west of the CWA a dry line was positioned from
just west of Sanderson to Sheffield up to Sweetwater. Latest
RAP/HRRR/LAPS soundings show capping eroding west of a line from
Uvalde to Junction. Weak capping is holding on in SAT/AUS per the
same forecast soundings. Aircraft soundings out of KSAT also show
weakening but still decent cap. With convective temperatures right
around 90-92 degrees and surface temperatures near 90 south of the
Plateau...believe convective initiation will take place in the
next 1-2 hours within the slight risk area SPC has annotated.

With SBCAPE values very high again and DCAPEs AOA 1000 j/kg, very
large hail and wind gusts up to 60 mph will be the main threat.
While the upper level support is lacking currently due to broad
ridging overhead...a shortwave disturbance is progged to enter the
Big Bend region after 7PM. This weak upper level support coupled
with the high instability, decent shear, steep lapse rates, and
theta-e convergence along the dry line, think the slight risk area
is laid out well for this afternoon and evening. Thinking the
tornado threat is rather low but 0-3 km SRH values are in the
150-200 range this evening west of I-35 and LCLs are lowest south
of the escarpment (Winter Garden), so cannot rule out one in this
area.

Thinking storm coverage should wane before midnight as we lose
instability. Tomorrow looks to be a very similar pattern with
afternoon/evening convection along the dry line out west again.
SPC has included the same general area in a slight risk with the
same threats as well for Sunday.

LONG TERM (Monday through Saturday)...
A southwest flow regime will set up for the week with weaker
shortwaves impacting the moist air mass over the region through
Tuesday. Included 30-40 PoP values for both Monday and slightly
higher Tuesday as these pass over.

The next significant storm system for South Central Texas looks to
be on Wednesday ahead of a strong cold front. Models are
indicating 1-3 inches of storm total rainfall associated with this
system and with the moist soils from the last few days heavy rain
event, flash flooding would be the main concern Wednesday.
However, the progression of the cold front looks fast enough at
this time that training shouldn't be an issue but due to the
antecedent conditions, the flash flood threat will be possible
regardless.

Late in the week, the cold front should result in a drier and
cooler air mass at least through Saturday. Temperatures should be
below normal, with highs in the 80s for the first week of June.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              73  87  71  85  70 /  20  30  30  20  20
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  72  87  71  85  70 /  20  30  30  20  20
New Braunfels Muni Airport     73  88  71  86  71 /  20  30  30  20  20
Burnet Muni Airport            71  85  69  84  69 /  30  30  30  30  20
Del Rio Intl Airport           74  89  73  87  71 /  50  30  30  30  40
Georgetown Muni Airport        72  85  69  84  69 /  20  30  30  30  20
Hondo Muni Airport             73  89  72  87  71 /  30  20  20  30  40
San Marcos Muni Airport        72  86  71  86  69 /  20  30  30  20  20
La Grange - Fayette Regional   73  87  72  86  70 /  20  20  20  20  20
San Antonio Intl Airport       74  88  72  86  72 /  30  20  20  30  20
Stinson Muni Airport           74  89  73  87  73 /  20  20  20  30  20

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

Mesoscale/Aviation...10
Synoptic/Grids...Hampshire
Public Service/Data Collection...30

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
410 PM CDT SAT MAY 28 2016

TXZ171>173-183>194-202>209-217>225-228-291100-
LLANO-BURNET-WILLIAMSON-VAL VERDE-EDWARDS-REAL-KERR-BANDERA-
GILLESPIE-KENDALL-BLANCO-HAYS-TRAVIS-BASTROP-LEE-KINNEY-UVALDE-
MEDINA-BEXAR-COMAL-GUADALUPE-CALDWELL-FAYETTE-MAVERICK-ZAVALA-
FRIO-ATASCOSA-WILSON-KARNES-GONZALES-DE WITT-LAVACA-DIMMIT-
410 PM CDT SAT MAY 28 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT THROUGH 11 PM FOR AREAS
TO THE WEST OF A LINE FROM LLANO TO BOERNE TO HONDO...THEN NORTH
OF A LINE FROM HONDO TO UVALDE TO DEL RIO. THERE IS A RISK OF
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS THIS EVENING ACROSS THIS AREA. THE MAIN
THREAT WITH ANY SEVERE STORMS WILL BE LARGE HAIL. A SECONDARY THREAT
OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL LAND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS IS ALSO
POSSIBLE. CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS POSSIBLE WITH ANY STORMS.
COVERAGE OF STORMS SHOULD BE SCATTERED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

A CONTINUED ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL PERSIST INTO LATE NEXT
WEEK. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHTLY STRONGER POTENTIAL OF STORMS
MID-WEEK. PLEASE STAY TUNED FOR FURTHER UPDATES AS IMPACTS FROM
POTENTIAL HAZARDS BECOME MORE CLEAR.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

PLEASE REPORT ANY SEVERE WEATHER OR FLOODING TO THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
626 PM CDT SAT MAY 28 2016

TXZ186-187-290015-
BANDERA TX-KERR TX-
626 PM CDT SAT MAY 28 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR KERR AND NORTHWESTERN BANDERA
COUNTIES UNTIL 715 PM CDT...

AT 626 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR
MEDINA...MOVING NORTH AT 30 MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
MEDINA...KERRVILLE...VANDERPOOL...HUNT...INGRAM...WALTONIA...KERR WILDLIFE
MANAGEMENT AREA...MOUNTAIN HOME...CYPRESS CREEK...KERRVILLE STATE PARK...
CENTER POINT AND CAMP VERDE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO
STATIONS AND AVAILABLE TELEVISION STATIONS FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER...CONTACT YOUR NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT
AGENCY. THEY WILL RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
OFFICE IN AUSTIN SAN ANTONIO.

&&

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 PM CDT FOR
SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.

LAT...LON 3021 9930 3013 9930 3014 9896 3013 9892
      3011 9892 2968 9914 2965 9960 3026 9955
TIME...MOT...LOC 2326Z 194DEG 28KT 2984 9931

TB3

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
630 PM CDT SAT MAY 28 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0612 PM     HAIL             5 SSE HONDO             29.29N  99.13W
05/28/2016  E1.75 INCH       MEDINA             TX   PUBLIC

&&

EVENT NUMBER EWX1600464

SBS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
702 PM CDT SAT MAY 28 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0630 PM     HAIL             2 S HONDO               29.33N  99.16W
05/28/2016  E2.00 INCH       MEDINA             TX   PUBLIC

            NEAR HIGHWAY 173 SOUTH OF HONDO

&&

EVENT NUMBER EWX1600465

SBS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
755 PM CDT SAT MAY 28 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0705 PM     HAIL             4 SSE HONDO             29.30N  99.13W
05/28/2016  E4.50 INCH       MEDINA             TX   PUBLIC

            PICTURE SHOWS HAILSTONES APPROXIMATELY THE SIZE OF AN
            ACTUAL SOFTBALL

&&

EVENT NUMBER EWX1600466

SBS