River Flood Warning 52, NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

229 
WGUS44 KEWX 290952
FLWEWX
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
451 AM CDT SUN MAY 29 2016

...The National Weather Service in Austin/San Antonio has issued 
 a flood warning for the... 

  Frio River...Nueces River...Sabinal 
  
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

All persons with interests along the river should monitor 
the latest forecasts, and be prepared to take necessary 
precautions to protect life and property. 
 
River stage forecasts are based on observed rainfall along with 
predicted rain for the next 12 hours. If actual rainfall varies 
from forecast values, forecast river stages will vary. 
 
Do not drive automobiles through flooded areas. Remember, 18 inches 
of water or less can carry away most vehicles, including trucks. 
 
If you see flood waters or come upon a flooded roadway, remember 
to turn around and do not drown. 
 
For the latest river stages and forecasts visit our web page at 
www.srh.noaa.gov/ewx.

&&

TXC463-300351-
/O.NEW.KEWX.FL.W.0057.160529T1155Z-160530T0424Z/
/UVAT2.1.ER.160529T1155Z.160529T1300Z.160529T1624Z.NO/
451 AM CDT SUN MAY 29 2016

 The National Weather Service in Austin/San Antonio has issued a 

* Flood Warning for 
  the Nueces River At Laguna.
* until this evening...or until the warning is cancelled.
* At  4:30 AM Sunday the stage was 3.2 feet.
* Flood stage is 10.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...Rise above flood stage shortly after sunrise and continue to rise to near
  10.9 feet by this morning.The river will fall below flood stage around noon.
* Impact...At 10.0 feet...Minor lowland flooding reaches low water crossings on 
  Highway 55 above Barksdale on Hackberry Creek. The Nueces River crossing at 
  Barksdale is very dangerous. East of Camp Wood Farm to Market 337 crosses Camp
  Wood Creek in three places. Vehicular related drownings have occurred at all 
  these sites..
* FLOOD HISTORY...THIS CREST COMPARES TO A PREVIOUS CREST OF 10.5 feet on Jul 2 
  2002.

&&


Below are the latest river stages and forecasts:


                    BF  FLD  Observed            Forecast 7AM
Location           STG  STG    STG    DAY TIME   Sun   Mon   Tue   Wed   Thu
  Laguna             7   10    3.2   Sun 04 AM  10.2   4.3   3.2   3.1   3.1


&&

LAT...LON 2944 10003 2945 9995 2928 9990 2914 9985
      2913 9994 2926 9998            

$$

TXC463-300220-
/O.NEW.KEWX.FL.W.0058.160529T1143Z-160530T0220Z/
/CNCT2.1.ER.160529T1143Z.160529T1200Z.160529T1420Z.NO/
451 AM CDT SUN MAY 29 2016

 The National Weather Service in Austin/San Antonio has issued a 

* Flood Warning for 
  the Frio River At Concan.
* until this evening...or until the warning is cancelled.
* At  4:30 AM Sunday the stage was 5.0 feet.
* Flood stage is 11.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...Rise above flood stage around sunrise and continue to rise to near
  11.5 feet shortly after.The river will fall below flood stage by late this 
  morning.
* Impact...At 12.0 feet...Moderate lowland flooding reaches camping areas near 
  Rio Frio to above concan during recreation months threatening campers, autos, 
  RV trailers, canoes and gear. Low roads and bridges are flooded and dangerous 
  to auto traffic..

&&


Below are the latest river stages and forecasts:


                    BF  FLD  Observed            Forecast 7AM
Location           STG  STG    STG    DAY TIME   Sun   Mon   Tue   Wed   Thu
  Concan             7   11    5.0   Sun 04 AM  11.5   5.6   4.3   4.4   4.4


&&

LAT...LON 2951 9975 2951 9967 2943 9962 2929 9962
      2923 9971 2942 9970             

$$

TXC463-300351-
/O.NEW.KEWX.FL.W.0059.160529T1758Z-160530T1000Z/
/UDET2.1.ER.160529T1758Z.160529T1900Z.160529T2200Z.NO/
451 AM CDT SUN MAY 29 2016

 The National Weather Service in Austin/San Antonio has issued a 

* Flood Warning for 
  the Frio River Below Dry Frio.
* from this afternoon to late tonight...or until the warning is cancelled.
* At  4:30 AM Sunday the stage was 1.8 feet.
* Flood stage is 12.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...Rise above flood stage by shortly after noon and continue to rise to 
  near 13.3 feet by mid-afternoon.The river will fall below flood stage by late
  this afternoon.
* Impact...At 12.0 feet...Minor lowland flooding reaches secondary and primary 
  roads and low bridges..
* FLOOD HISTORY...THIS CREST COMPARES TO A PREVIOUS CREST OF 12.5 feet on Oct 19 
  1985.

&&


Below are the latest river stages and forecasts:


                    BF  FLD  Observed            Forecast 7AM
Location           STG  STG    STG    DAY TIME   Sun   Mon   Tue   Wed   Thu
  Dry Frio          10   12    1.8   Sun 04 AM   2.6   6.9   3.8   3.5   3.4


&&

LAT...LON 2923 9971 2929 9962 2898 9917 2876 9912
      2873 9920 2893 9924             

$$

TXC463-300351-
/O.EXT.KEWX.FL.W.0052.160529T1045Z-160530T0850Z/
/SABT2.2.ER.160529T1045Z.160529T1600Z.160529T2050Z.NO/
451 AM CDT SUN MAY 29 2016

...Forecast flooding increased from Minor to Moderate severity... 
The flood warning continues for 
 the Sabinal At Sabinal.
* until late tonight...or until the warning is cancelled. 
* At  4:30 AM Sunday the stage was 4.4 feet.
* Flood stage is 12.0 feet.
* Moderate flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...Rise above flood stage by early this morning and continue to rise 
  to near 16.6 feet by late this morning.The river will fall below flood stage 
  by late this afternoon.
* Impact...At 16.0 feet...Moderate lowland flooding inundates lowest secondary 
  roads and bridges in the flood plain from the headwaters to the Frio River 
  confluence..
* FLOOD HISTORY...THIS CREST COMPARES TO A PREVIOUS CREST OF 16.2 feet on Jul 18 
  1990.

&&


Below are the latest river stages and forecasts:


                    BF  FLD  Observed            Forecast 7AM
Location           STG  STG    STG    DAY TIME   Sun   Mon   Tue   Wed   Thu
  Sabinal           10   12    4.4   Sun 04 AM  14.6   6.8   4.7   4.7   4.6


&&

LAT...LON 2962 9956 2962 9948 2914 9941 2901 9921
      2894 9925 2910 9949             

$$

736 
WGUS84 KEWX 291429
FLSEWX
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
929 AM CDT SUN MAY 29 2016

...The flood warning is cancelled for the following rivers in Texas...
  Seco Creek At Seco Creek At Rowe Ranch Near D'hanis Affecting Medina County

...The flood warning continues for the following rivers in Texas...
  Frio River At Concan Affecting Uvalde County
  Frio River Below Dry Frio Affecting Uvalde County
  Sabinal At Sabinal Affecting Uvalde County
  Hondo Creek At King Waterhole/hondo Crk @ Hwy 173 Affecting Medina County

...The flood warning continues for the following rivers in Texas..
  Nueces River Below Uvalde Affecting Uvalde County

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

All persons with interests along the river should monitor 
the latest forecasts, and be prepared to take necessary 
precautions to protect life and property. 

River stage forecasts are based on observed rainfall along with 
predicted rain for the next 12 hours. If actual rainfall varies 
from forecast values, forecast river stages will vary. 

Do not drive automobiles through flooded areas. Remember, 18 inches 
of water or less can carry away most vehicles, including trucks. 

If you see flood waters or come upon a flooded roadway, remember 
to turn around and do not drown. 

For the latest river stages and forecasts visit our web page at 
www.srh.noaa.gov/ewx.

&&

TXC463-300829-
/O.CON.KEWX.FL.W.0062.160529T2110Z-160530T1550Z/
/UVLT2.1.ER.160529T2110Z.160529T2300Z.160530T0350Z.UU/
929 AM CDT SUN MAY 29 2016

The flood warning continues for the Nueces River Below Uvalde.
* At  8:30 AM Sunday the stage was 3.2 feet.
* Flood stage is 11.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...rise above flood stage by late Sunday afternoon and continue to rise 
  to near 12.3 feet by Sunday evening. The river will fall below flood stage by 
  late Sunday night.
* Impact...At 11.0 feet...Minor lowland flooding nine miles southwest of Uvalde 
  closes the Farm to Market 481 bridge floor. Livestock in the flood plain 
  should be moved to higher ground..

&& 

Below are the latest river stages and forecasts:
                    BF  FLD  Observed            Forecast 7AM
Location           STG  STG    STG    Day Time   Mon   Tue   Wed   Thu   Fri
 Uvalde             10   11    3.2   Sun 08 AM   7.9   4.1   3.9   3.8   3.8


&&

LAT...LON 2913 9994 2914 9985 2885 9974 2853 9967
      2848 9975 2880 9985             

$$

TXC463-300712-
/O.EXT.KEWX.FL.W.0058.000000T0000Z-160530T0712Z/
/CNCT2.1.ER.160529T1608Z.160529T1700Z.160529T1912Z.NO/
929 AM CDT SUN MAY 29 2016

 The flood warning continues for the Frio River At Concan.
* At  8:30 AM Sunday the stage was 6.3 feet.
* Flood stage is 11.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...A secondary rise is expected late Sunday morning and continue to rise to
  near 11.6 feet by Sunday afternoon. Due to field reports...it may be possible the
  river level will not reach as high as currently expected.
* Impact...At 12.0 feet...Moderate lowland flooding reaches camping areas near 
  Rio Frio to above concan during recreation months threatening campers, autos, 
  RV trailers, canoes and gear. Low roads and bridges are flooded and dangerous 
  to auto traffic..

&& 

Below are the latest river stages and forecasts:
                    BF  FLD  Observed            Forecast 7AM
Location           STG  STG    STG    Day Time   Mon   Tue   Wed   Thu   Fri
 Concan              7   11    6.3   Sun 08 AM   6.4   4.5   4.5   4.4   4.4


&&

LAT...LON 2951 9975 2951 9967 2943 9962 2929 9962
      2923 9971 2942 9970             

$$

TXC463-300829-
/O.EXT.KEWX.FL.W.0059.160529T2024Z-160530T1054Z/
/UDET2.1.ER.160529T2024Z.160529T2100Z.160529T2254Z.NO/
929 AM CDT SUN MAY 29 2016

 The flood warning continues for the Frio River Below Dry Frio.
* At  8:30 AM Sunday the stage was 1.8 feet.
* Flood stage is 12.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...rise above flood stage by late Sunday afternoon and continue to rise 
  to near 13.7 feet by late Sunday afternoon. 
* Impact...At 15.0 feet...Moderate flooding reaches crop and pasture land near 
  the river. Secondary and primary roads and low bridges flood..

&& 

Below are the latest river stages and forecasts:
                    BF  FLD  Observed            Forecast 7AM
Location           STG  STG    STG    Day Time   Mon   Tue   Wed   Thu   Fri
 Dry Frio           10   12    1.8   Sun 08 AM   7.9   4.2   3.6   3.5   3.4


&&

LAT...LON 2923 9971 2929 9962 2898 9917 2876 9912
      2873 9920 2893 9924             

$$

TXC463-300648-
/O.EXT.KEWX.FL.W.0052.000000T0000Z-160530T0648Z/
/SABT2.2.ER.160529T1429Z.160529T1600Z.160529T1848Z.NO/
929 AM CDT SUN MAY 29 2016

 The flood warning continues for the Sabinal At Sabinal.
* At  8:30 AM Sunday the stage was 3.5 feet.
* Flood stage is 12.0 feet.
* Moderate flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river is expected to rise above flood stage by late Sunday morning
  and continue to rise to near 16.4 feet by late Sunday.
* Impact...At 16.0 feet...Moderate lowland flooding inundates lowest secondary 
  roads and bridges in the flood plain from the headwaters to the Frio River 
  confluence..

&& 

Below are the latest river stages and forecasts:
                    BF  FLD  Observed            Forecast 7AM
Location           STG  STG    STG    Day Time   Mon   Tue   Wed   Thu   Fri
 Sabinal            10   12    3.5   Sun 08 AM   7.5   4.7   4.7   4.6   4.6


&&

LAT...LON 2962 9956 2962 9948 2914 9941 2901 9921
      2894 9925 2910 9949             

$$

TXC325-291459-
/O.CAN.KEWX.FL.W.0060.000000T0000Z-160530T0900Z/
/SCRT2.1.ER.160529T1159Z.160529T1215Z.160529T1304Z.NO/
929 AM CDT SUN MAY 29 2016

The flood warning is cancelled for the Seco Creek At Seco Creek At Rowe Ranch
near D'Hanis.
* At  8:15 AM Sunday the stage was 14.6 feet.
* Flood stage is 15.0 feet.
* Forecast...The creek will continue to fall to 8.6 feet by Monday morning.
* Impact...At 15.0 feet...Minor lowland flooding reaches lowest areas of the 
  flood plain with no significant damage..

&& 

Below are the latest river stages and forecasts:
                    BF  FLD  Observed            Forecast 7AM
Location           STG  STG    STG    Day Time   Mon   Tue   Wed   Thu   Fri
 Seco Creek At Ro   13   15   14.6   Sun 08 AM   8.6   7.7   7.7   7.7   7.6


&&

LAT...LON 2939 9931 2939 9923 2920 9921 2902 9909
      2902 9918 2920 9929             

$$

TXC325-300404-
/O.EXT.KEWX.FL.W.0061.000000T0000Z-160530T0404Z/
/KWHT2.2.ER.160529T1530Z.160529T1600Z.160529T1604Z.NO/
929 AM CDT SUN MAY 29 2016

 The flood warning continues for the Hondo Creek At King Waterhole Hondo Creek
 at highway 173.
* At  9:00 AM Sunday the stage was 8.3 feet.
* Flood stage is 12.0 feet.
* Moderate flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...rise above flood stage by late Sunday morning and continue to rise to
  near 12.4 feet by late Sunday morning.
* Impact...At 12.0 feet...Minor lowland flooding inundates Farm to Market 462 at
  several low crossings over Hondo Creek..

&& 

Below are the latest river stages and forecasts:
                    BF  FLD  Observed            Forecast 7AM
Location           STG  STG    STG    Day Time   Mon   Tue   Wed   Thu   Fri
 King Waterhole/h   10   12    8.3   Sun 09 AM   5.1   4.1   3.9   3.8   3.7


&&

LAT...LON 2938 9915 2938 9905 2913 9902 2902 9909
      2902 9918 2913 9910             

$$

sbs

115 
WGUS84 KEWX 292006
FLSEWX
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
306 PM CDT SUN MAY 29 2016

...The flood warning is cancelled for the following rivers in Texas...

  Nueces River At Laguna Affecting Uvalde County
  Nueces River Below Uvalde Affecting Uvalde County
  Frio River At Concan Affecting Uvalde County
  Frio River Below Dry Frio Affecting Uvalde County
  Sabinal At Sabinal Affecting Uvalde County
  Hondo Creek At King Waterhole/hondo Crk @ Hwy 173 Affecting Medina County
  Nueces River Near Asherton Affecting Dimmit County
...The flood warning continues for the following rivers in Texas...

  Frio River Near Derby Affecting Frio County
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

All persons with interests along the river should monitor 
the latest forecasts, and be prepared to take necessary 
precautions to protect life and property. 

River stage forecasts are based on observed rainfall along with 
predicted rain for the next 12 hours. If actual rainfall varies 
from forecast values, forecast river stages will vary. 

Do not drive automobiles through flooded areas. Remember, 18 inches 
of water or less can carry away most vehicles, including trucks. 

If you see flood waters or come upon a flooded roadway, remember 
to turn around and do not drown. 

For the latest river stages and forecasts visit our web page at 
www.srh.noaa.gov/ewx.

&&

TXC463-292036-
/O.CAN.KEWX.FL.W.0057.000000T0000Z-160530T0424Z/
/UVAT2.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
306 PM CDT SUN MAY 29 2016

The flood warning is cancelled for the Nueces River At Laguna.
* At  2:30 PM Sunday the stage was 5.6 feet.
* Flood stage is 10.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river crested below flood stage at 7.6 feet. The river
  is expected to fall to around 3.5 feet by Wednesday.


&& 

Below are the latest river stages and forecasts:
                    BF  FLD  Observed            Forecast 7AM
Location           STG  STG    STG    Day Time   Mon   Tue   Wed   Thu   Fri
 Laguna              7   10    5.6   Sun 02 PM   5.6   3.8   3.3   3.2   3.2


&&

LAT...LON 2944 10003 2945 9995 2928 9990 2914 9985
      2913 9994 2926 9998            

$$

TXC463-292036-
/O.CAN.KEWX.FL.W.0062.000000T0000Z-160530T1550Z/
/UVLT2.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.UU/
306 PM CDT SUN MAY 29 2016

The flood warning is cancelled for the Nueces River Below Uvalde.
* At  2:30 PM Sunday the stage was 3.2 feet.
* Flood stage is 11.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river will crest below flood stage at 10.7 feet Sunday evening.
* Impact...At 11.0 feet...Minor lowland flooding nine miles southwest of Uvalde 
  closes the Farm to Market 481 bridge floor. Livestock in the flood plain 
  should be moved to higher ground..

&& 

Below are the latest river stages and forecasts:
                    BF  FLD  Observed            Forecast 7AM
Location           STG  STG    STG    Day Time   Mon   Tue   Wed   Thu   Fri
 Uvalde             10   11    3.2   Sun 02 PM   6.3   5.6   4.2   4.1   4.0


&&

LAT...LON 2913 9994 2914 9985 2885 9974 2853 9967
      2848 9975 2880 9985             

$$

TXC463-292036-
/O.CAN.KEWX.FL.W.0058.000000T0000Z-160530T0712Z/
/CNCT2.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
306 PM CDT SUN MAY 29 2016

The flood warning is cancelled for the Frio River At Concan.
* At  2:30 PM Sunday the stage was 5.5 feet.
* Flood stage is 11.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river crested below flood stage at 7.0 feet. The river will 
  fall to around 5 feet Sunday evening.


&& 

Below are the latest river stages and forecasts:
                    BF  FLD  Observed            Forecast 7AM
Location           STG  STG    STG    Day Time   Mon   Tue   Wed   Thu   Fri
 Concan              7   11    5.5   Sun 02 PM   5.2   4.7   4.5   4.4   4.4


&&

LAT...LON 2951 9975 2951 9967 2943 9962 2929 9962
      2923 9971 2942 9970             

$$

TXC463-292036-
/O.CAN.KEWX.FL.W.0059.000000T0000Z-160530T1054Z/
/UDET2.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
306 PM CDT SUN MAY 29 2016

The flood warning is cancelled for the Frio River Below Dry Frio.
* At  2:30 PM Sunday the stage was 1.8 feet.
* Flood stage is 12.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river will crest below flood stage at 8.1 feet by Sunday evening.
  The actual crest height may be lower than currently forecast.


&& 

Below are the latest river stages and forecasts:
                    BF  FLD  Observed            Forecast 7AM
Location           STG  STG    STG    Day Time   Mon   Tue   Wed   Thu   Fri
 Dry Frio           10   12    1.8   Sun 02 PM   5.2   4.1   3.6   3.5   3.5


&&

LAT...LON 2923 9971 2929 9962 2898 9917 2876 9912
      2873 9920 2893 9924             

$$

TXC463-292036-
/O.CAN.KEWX.FL.W.0052.000000T0000Z-160530T0648Z/
/SABT2.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
306 PM CDT SUN MAY 29 2016

The flood warning is cancelled for the Sabinal At Sabinal.
* At  2:30 PM Sunday the stage was 10.1 feet.
* Flood stage is 12.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river crested below flood stage at 11.9 feet. The river will 
  fall to around 5 feet by Monday evening.
* Impact...At 10.0 feet...Flow extends into lowest areas of the flood plain with
  no significant damage..

&& 

Below are the latest river stages and forecasts:
                    BF  FLD  Observed            Forecast 7AM
Location           STG  STG    STG    Day Time   Mon   Tue   Wed   Thu   Fri
 Sabinal            10   12   10.1   Sun 02 PM   7.7   5.1   4.6   4.6   4.5


&&

LAT...LON 2962 9956 2962 9948 2914 9941 2901 9921
      2894 9925 2910 9949             

$$

TXC325-292036-
/O.CAN.KEWX.FL.W.0061.000000T0000Z-160530T0404Z/
/KWHT2.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
306 PM CDT SUN MAY 29 2016

The flood warning is cancelled for the Hondo Creek At King Waterhole Hondo Creek
  at Hwy 173.
* At  2:00 PM Sunday the stage was 6.2 feet.
* Flood stage is 12.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river crested below flood stage at 10.3 feet. The river will 
  fall to around 4 feet by Tuesday.


&& 

Below are the latest river stages and forecasts:
                    BF  FLD  Observed            Forecast 7AM
Location           STG  STG    STG    Day Time   Mon   Tue   Wed   Thu   Fri
 King Waterhole/h   10   12    6.2   Sun 02 PM   5.5   4.1   3.9   3.8   3.7


&&

LAT...LON 2938 9915 2938 9905 2913 9902 2902 9909
      2902 9918 2913 9910             

$$

TXC163-301405-
/O.EXT.KEWX.FL.W.0063.160530T2326Z-160601T1525Z/
/DBYT2.2.ER.160530T2326Z.160531T0600Z.160601T0325Z.NO/
306 PM CDT SUN MAY 29 2016

 The flood warning continues for the Frio River Near Derby.
* At  2:30 PM Sunday the stage was 0.7 feet.
* Flood stage is 6.0 feet.
* Moderate flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...rise above flood stage by Monday evening and continue to rise to 
  near 8.5 feet by early Tuesday morning.
* Impact...At 10.0 feet...Lowland flooding below Concan to Choke Canyon 
  Reservoir floods oil well pump jacks, irrigation pumps and any equipment in 
  the lower flood plain near and above Derby..

&& 

Below are the latest river stages and forecasts:
                    BF  FLD  Observed            Forecast 7AM
Location           STG  STG    STG    Day Time   Mon   Tue   Wed   Thu   Fri
 Derby               6    6    0.7   Sun 02 PM   1.2   7.1   4.9   2.8   2.2


&&

LAT...LON 2873 9920 2876 9912 2864 9902 2864 9910


$$

TXC127-292036-
/O.CAN.KEWX.FL.W.0064.000000T0000Z-160602T0824Z/
/ASRT2.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
306 PM CDT SUN MAY 29 2016

The flood warning is cancelled for the Nueces River Near Asherton.
* At  2:30 PM Sunday the stage was 3.2 feet.
* Flood stage is 20.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river will crest below flood stage at 16.3 feet Wednesday 
  evening.


&& 

Below are the latest river stages and forecasts:
                    BF  FLD  Observed            Forecast 7AM
Location           STG  STG    STG    Day Time   Mon   Tue   Wed   Thu   Fri
 Asherton           18   20    3.2   Sun 02 PM   3.3   8.5  15.5  15.8  14.2


&&

LAT...LON 2848 9975 2853 9967 2847 9939 2839 9939


$$

sbs

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
107 AM CDT SUN MAY 29 2016

.AVIATION... /06z TAF update/

A small storm complex covering much of the Hill Country and
northern reaches of the Rio Grande Plains will produce some
occasional heavy downpours over SAT through 08z and possibly SSF
through 09z. Lightning and reduced VSBY from torrential downpours
should be the main concern...but a few gusts over 25 knots are
possible at SAT. The lightning extends well to the east in a
stratiform area that is impacting ABIA, but this should decrease
by around 08z. Storms were temporarily pulled from DRT, an outflow
boundary may send convective focus their way between 07z and 09z.
With the complex weakening slightly, will leave this out of the
TAFs for now. There should be a brief period of clearing among the
downdraft air, but IFR CIGS and VSBYS should encroach back into
the TAF sites before daybreak. From there, will follow a mix of
persistence and model guidance in improvements to VFR in the early
afternoon and lowering back to MVFR for most sites in the late
evening.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1109 PM CDT SAT MAY 28 2016/

UPDATE...
Complex of storms continues to evolve into a possible overnight
heavy rain threat and continued threat of severe storms. Extended
the severe thunderstorm watch for two hours and added a row of
counties to the east to include Comal and Bexar Counties until
06z.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 937 PM CDT SAT MAY 28 2016/

MESOSCALE UPDATE...
Complicated forecast evolution for the overnight period with the
ongoing thunderstorm complex across the northwest CWA. Convection
was kicked off this afternoon with daytime heating in an area of
surface moisture confluence. Some of the storms became severe,
but it appears at the present time that the main threat going
forward will be heavy rainfall. Forecast soundings do show some
de-coupling overnight, but not enough to really increase the
nocturnal cap to help suppress convection. There is little upper
forcing to really support the convection, but since it is now
ongoing, the storms will be able to continue as long as the cold
pools continue to move out from under the convection and help to
sustain and support new updrafts. This seems to be continuing
just fine at the present time as evident by continued cloud tops
on IR of near -75C.

The main question now is how long the storms will continue and
what the overall movement will be. the KEWX VAD wind profile shows
deep south/southeasterly flow of 20 to 30 knots in the lower 7 kft
of the atmosphere with model guidance slightly increasing the
wind speeds. This should help continue to feed the MCC with
moisture and help with some weak lift up the escarpment. The HRRR
has had a tough time with the placement of the current convection
but does show some continued movement of a potential MCC to the
south/southeast. This helps increase confidence of a prolonged
system. Forward propagation vectors do show movement to the east,
but we have not seen that at the present time.

Current thinking is that the system should sustain itself over the
next few hours before some slow weakening should occur. Upped the
pops across the west-central CWA to likely and mentioned locally
heavy rainfall for this area to continue the trend of a slow-
moving system to the SSE. Increased PoPs to the east a bit to
account for any possible eastward movement and to account for
lighter activity forming to the east of the main thunderstorm
core.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 628 PM CDT SAT MAY 28 2016/

AVIATION.../00z Update/
Concerns this forecast will be convection this evening and then
the development of MVFR/IFR cigs. Currently isolated showers and
thunderstorms have developed west of I-35. Expecting to see more
development this evening. If the convection does develop and can
last long enough we may see some approach the I-35 sites after
06z. prior to that showers are possible and have included a VCSH
group for KSAT/KSSF. Convection west of KDRT may get close to Del
Rio but timing is not certain and for this reason I did include a
VCTS through 02z. Onset of MVFR cigs likely to be a couple hours
sooner tonight and have all the I-35 terminals seeing the cigs
lower starting 04z- 05z. After 07z-08z should see IFR cigs along
I-35. KDRT will see MVFR cigs starting around 08z with the IFR
cigs expected around 12z. VFR conditions are expected after 17z-
18z. All site have the potential to see fog due to the wet ground.
Lowest visibilities likely at KAUS (2SM) with all other terminals
remaining in the 4sm-6sm range. E/SE winds near 10 knots tonight
then SE 10-15 knots after 15z Sunday. KDRT will see wind gusts to
around 20 knots after 18z through sunset.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 304 PM CDT SAT MAY 28 2016/

SHORT TERM (Tonight through Sunday Night)...
At 230 PM, South Central Texas surface analysis showed
temperatures ranging from the mid 80s to low 90s with dewpoints in
the low to mid 70s, showing the entire CWA as quite moist and
unstable. North and west of the CWA a dry line was positioned from
just west of Sanderson to Sheffield up to Sweetwater. Latest
RAP/HRRR/LAPS soundings show capping eroding west of a line from
Uvalde to Junction. Weak capping is holding on in SAT/AUS per the
same forecast soundings. Aircraft soundings out of KSAT also show
weakening but still decent cap. With convective temperatures right
around 90-92 degrees and surface temperatures near 90 south of the
Plateau...believe convective initiation will take place in the
next 1-2 hours within the slight risk area SPC has annotated.

With SBCAPE values very high again and DCAPEs AOA 1000 j/kg, very
large hail and wind gusts up to 60 mph will be the main threat.
While the upper level support is lacking currently due to broad
ridging overhead...a shortwave disturbance is progged to enter the
Big Bend region after 7PM. This weak upper level support coupled
with the high instability, decent shear, steep lapse rates, and
theta-e convergence along the dry line, think the slight risk area
is laid out well for this afternoon and evening. Thinking the
tornado threat is rather low but 0-3 km SRH values are in the
150-200 range this evening west of I-35 and LCLs are lowest south
of the escarpment (Winter Garden), so cannot rule out one in this
area.

Thinking storm coverage should wane before midnight as we lose
instability. Tomorrow looks to be a very similar pattern with
afternoon/evening convection along the dry line out west again.
SPC has included the same general area in a slight risk with the
same threats as well for Sunday.

LONG TERM (Monday through Saturday)...
A southwest flow regime will set up for the week with weaker
shortwaves impacting the moist air mass over the region through
Tuesday. Included 30-40 PoP values for both Monday and slightly
higher Tuesday as these pass over.

The next significant storm system for South Central Texas looks to
be on Wednesday ahead of a strong cold front. Models are
indicating 1-3 inches of storm total rainfall associated with this
system and with the moist soils from the last few days heavy rain
event, flash flooding would be the main concern Wednesday.
However, the progression of the cold front looks fast enough at
this time that training shouldn't be an issue but due to the
antecedent conditions, the flash flood threat will be possible
regardless.

Late in the week, the cold front should result in a drier and
cooler air mass at least through Saturday. Temperatures should be
below normal, with highs in the 80s for the first week of June.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              71  85  70  84  71 /  20  30  20  40  40
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  71  85  70  85  71 /  20  30  20  40  30
New Braunfels Muni Airport     71  86  71  85  71 /  20  30  30  50  30
Burnet Muni Airport            69  84  69  83  69 /  30  30  30  50  50
Del Rio Intl Airport           73  87  71  88  72 /  40  30  40  40  40
Georgetown Muni Airport        69  84  69  84  70 /  20  30  20  40  40
Hondo Muni Airport             72  87  71  86  71 /  20  30  40  50  40
San Marcos Muni Airport        71  86  69  84  71 /  20  30  20  40  30
La Grange - Fayette Regional   72  86  70  85  72 /  10  20  10  40  20
San Antonio Intl Airport       72  86  72  86  72 /  20  30  30  50  40
Stinson Muni Airport           73  87  73  87  73 /  20  30  30  50  40

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

Mesoscale/Aviation...Oaks
Synoptic/Grids...04

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1058 PM CDT SAT MAY 28 2016

TXZ171>173-183>194-202>209-217>225-228-300400-
LLANO-BURNET-WILLIAMSON-VAL VERDE-EDWARDS-REAL-KERR-BANDERA-
GILLESPIE-KENDALL-BLANCO-HAYS-TRAVIS-BASTROP-LEE-KINNEY-UVALDE-
MEDINA-BEXAR-COMAL-GUADALUPE-CALDWELL-FAYETTE-MAVERICK-ZAVALA-
FRIO-ATASCOSA-WILSON-KARNES-GONZALES-DE WITT-LAVACA-DIMMIT-
1058 PM CDT SAT MAY 28 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT THROUGH 1 AM FOR AREAS
TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF A LINE FROM DEL RIO TO SAN ANTONIO TO
BLANCO. THERE IS A RISK OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS THIS EVENING
ACROSS THIS AREA. THE MAIN THREAT WITH ANY SEVERE STORMS WILL BE
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

IN ADDITION TO THE SEVERE THREAT WILL BE THE THREAT FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL. SOME STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING UP TO 2-4
INCHES OF RAINFALL WHICH COULD LEAD TO POSSIBLE FLASH FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

A CONTINUED ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL PERSIST INTO LATE NEXT
WEEK. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHTLY STRONGER POTENTIAL OF STORMS
MID-WEEK. PLEASE STAY TUNED FOR FURTHER UPDATES AS IMPACTS FROM
POTENTIAL HAZARDS BECOME MORE CLEAR.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

PLEASE REPORT ANY SEVERE WEATHER OR FLOODING TO THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
201 AM CDT SUN MAY 29 2016

TXZ204-219-290745-
FRIO TX-MEDINA TX-
201 AM CDT SUN MAY 29 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTH CENTRAL FRIO AND CENTRAL
MEDINA COUNTIES UNTIL 245 AM CDT...

AT 201 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG
A LINE EXTENDING FROM 8 MILES WEST OF MICO TO 6 MILES NORTHWEST OF
BIRY TO NEAR YANCEY. MOVEMENT WAS SOUTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS OF 50 TO 55 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
HONDO...MOORE...NEW FOUNTAIN...DUNLAY...BADER...YANCEY...BIRY...QUIHI AND
MICO.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS...AND MAY LEAD
TO LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 10 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

THESE STORMS MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO
STATIONS AND AVAILABLE TELEVISION STATIONS FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

PERSONS IN CAMPGROUNDS SHOULD CONSIDER SEEKING STURDY SHELTER UNTIL
THESE STORMS PASS.

&&

LAT...LON 2901 9925 2914 9935 2935 9922 2962 9919
      2961 9898 2956 9899 2955 9897 2956 9893
      2961 9888 2961 9884 2897 9904
TIME...MOT...LOC 0701Z 327DEG 15KT 2953 9907 2928 9909 2914 9918

ALLEN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
230 AM CDT SUN MAY 29 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0145 AM     HEAVY RAIN       BANDERA                 29.72N  99.07W
05/29/2016  M6.44 INCH       BANDERA            TX   OTHER FEDERAL

            USGS RAIN GAUGE ON THE MEDINA RIVER AT BANDERA REPORTED
            6.44 INCHES OF RAIN BETWEEN 7 PM AND 145 AM

&&

EVENT NUMBER EWX1600481

MCO

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
233 AM CDT SUN MAY 29 2016

TXZ203-290815-
UVALDE TX-
233 AM CDT SUN MAY 29 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EASTERN UVALDE COUNTY UNTIL 315
AM CDT...

AT 233 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 7
MILES SOUTH OF KNIPPA...OR 12 MILES EAST OF UVALDE...MOVING NORTHEAST
AT 25 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS OF 50 TO 55 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
UVALDE...SABINAL...KNIPPA AND UVALDE ESTATES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD
TO LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 10 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO
STATIONS AND AVAILABLE TELEVISION STATIONS FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

PERSONS IN CAMPGROUNDS SHOULD CONSIDER SEEKING STURDY SHELTER UNTIL
THIS STORM PASSES.

&&

LAT...LON 2959 9959 2953 9941 2919 9941 2910 9948
      2910 9987
TIME...MOT...LOC 0733Z 216DEG 21KT 2919 9959

ALLEN

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
235 AM CDT SUN MAY 29 2016

TXZ204-205-220-290815-
ATASCOSA TX-BEXAR TX-MEDINA TX-
235 AM CDT SUN MAY 29 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WESTERN BEXAR...NORTHWESTERN
ATASCOSA AND EASTERN MEDINA COUNTIES UNTIL 315 AM CDT...

AT 235 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG
A LINE EXTENDING FROM NEAR MICO TO NEAR DEVINE. MOVEMENT WAS EAST AT
20 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS OF 50 TO 55 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
SAN ANTONIO...DEVINE...POTEET...CASTROVILLE...MOORE...LEON VALLEY...
HELOTES...LYTLE...SOMERSET...NATALIA...LACOSTE...PEARSON...BADER...NOONAN...
LACKLAND AFB...QUIHI...SEA WORLD...MICO...DUNLAY AND BIRY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS...AND MAY LEAD
TO LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 10 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

THESE STORMS MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO
STATIONS AND AVAILABLE TELEVISION STATIONS FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

PERSONS IN CAMPGROUNDS SHOULD CONSIDER SEEKING STURDY SHELTER UNTIL
THESE STORMS PASS.

&&

LAT...LON 2906 9880 2909 9881 2909 9904 2955 9906
      2956 9899 2955 9897 2956 9896 2956 9894
      2958 9891 2963 9859 2902 9857
TIME...MOT...LOC 0735Z 269DEG 17KT 2948 9898 2917 9897

ALLEN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
238 AM CDT SUN MAY 29 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0234 AM     FLASH FLOOD      4 SSE UTOPIA            29.57N  99.52W
05/29/2016                   UVALDE             TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            LAW ENFORECEMENT REPORTS SEVERAL FARM TO MARKET ROAD
            CLOSURES BETWEEN UTOPIA AND SABINAL

&&

EVENT NUMBER EWX1600482

MCO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
240 AM CDT SUN MAY 29 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0234 AM     FLASH FLOOD      SABINAL                 29.32N  99.47W
05/29/2016                   UVALDE             TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            LAW ENFORCEMENT REPORTS SEVERAL ROAD CLOSURES IN AND
            AROUND SABINAL.

&&

EVENT NUMBER EWX1600483

MCO