Special Weather Statement, NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
314 AM CDT SUN MAY 29 2016

.SHORT TERM (Today through Monday)...
Showers and thunderstorms continue between San Antonio and Del Rio
with rains into much of the Hill Country spreading to the I-35
corridor northeast of San Antonio. Expect this to persist a few
more hours, then wane later this morning. However, river flooding
will continue for some areas through much of today. Surface
boundaries from ongoing storms, the dryline over western Texas,
and the Serranias del Burro over Mexico will all serve as focus
and lifting mechanisms for showers and thunderstorms to develop as
convective temperatures are reached today and again Monday. Most
models show the showers and thunderstorms organizing into clusters
(MCS) and moving across mainly the northwestern half of South
Central Texas. Forecast soundings indicate a potential for
isolated strong to severe storms. Motion vectors show some storms
will move slowly making locally heavy rains possible. These could
result in flash flooding and renewed river flooding in areas that
have received heavy rains recently. Many areas may not receive
much rain and the various models showing differing locations of
the heaviest rains.

&&

.LONG TERM (Monday Night through Saturday)...
The short term pattern persists into Tuesday with development of
showers and thunderstorms, then organizing into MCS with strong
to severe and locally heavy rains possible. On Wednesday into
Thursday, an upper level low currently near Point Conception on
the California coast slowly moves across Texas. At the same time,
a cold front drifts across South Central Texas. Moisture levels
increase with convergence leading to PWS of near 2 inches. The
threat for heavy rains becomes more widespread with a greater
chance for flash flooding and river flooding, especially if heavy
rains develop in the short term and moisten the soils further and
maintain high flows in rivers and streams. The upper level low
slowly moves off to the east Friday into next weekend per GFS
while the ECMWF keeps it a bit further to the west and closer to
South Central Texas. Will end rains on Friday, however, should the
ECMWF hold, then rain chances continue next weekend, as well.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              87  71  86  72  85 /  30  30  40  20  50
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  87  70  86  71  85 /  30  30  40  20  50
New Braunfels Muni Airport     88  71  86  72  85 /  30  30  40  30  50
Burnet Muni Airport            85  69  84  70  82 /  30  30  40  30  50
Del Rio Intl Airport           89  73  87  73  89 /  40  40  40  40  40
Georgetown Muni Airport        85  69  85  70  84 /  30  30  40  20  50
Hondo Muni Airport             89  72  86  72  86 /  30  30  40  40  50
San Marcos Muni Airport        86  71  85  71  85 /  30  30  40  20  50
La Grange - Fayette Regional   88  72  86  72  85 /  20  20  30  20  40
San Antonio Intl Airport       88  73  87  73  86 /  30  30  40  30  50
Stinson Muni Airport           89  73  88  73  87 /  30  30  40  30  50

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

Mesoscale/Aviation...Oaks
Synoptic/Grids...04

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
322 AM CDT SUN MAY 29 2016

TXZ171>173-183>194-202>209-217>225-228-300830-
LLANO-BURNET-WILLIAMSON-VAL VERDE-EDWARDS-REAL-KERR-BANDERA-
GILLESPIE-KENDALL-BLANCO-HAYS-TRAVIS-BASTROP-LEE-KINNEY-UVALDE-
MEDINA-BEXAR-COMAL-GUADALUPE-CALDWELL-FAYETTE-MAVERICK-ZAVALA-
FRIO-ATASCOSA-WILSON-KARNES-GONZALES-DE WITT-LAVACA-DIMMIT-
322 AM CDT SUN MAY 29 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF
I-35. PRIMARY SEVERE THREATS ARE FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS. SOME STORMS WILL PRODUCE VERY HEAVY RAINFALL RATES...AND
SPOTTY RAINFALL TOTALS OF 2-4 INCH ARE FORECAST WHICH COULD LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

A CONTINUED ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY
WITH NUMEROUS ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. ANY
STORM CLUSTERS THAT DEVELOP WILL HAVE A CHANCE TO PRODUCE SEVERE
WEATHER AND TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES. HEAVIEST RAIN
POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR WHEN A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
THURSDAY. BY THIS TIME...THERE WILL LIKELY BE A FEW LOCATIONS WITH
5-DAY STORM TOTALS IN EXCESS OF 8 INCHES. PLEASE STAY TUNED FOR
FURTHER UPDATES AS IMPACTS FROM POTENTIAL HAZARDS BECOME MORE
CLEAR.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

PLEASE REPORT ANY SEVERE WEATHER OR FLOODING TO THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE.

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
417 AM CDT SUN MAY 29 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1040 PM     FLASH FLOOD      2 ENE INGRAM            30.09N  99.20W
05/28/2016                   KERR               TX   EMERGENCY MNGR

            LOW WATER CROSSINGS ON GOAT CREEK ROAD CLOSED DUE TO
            FLOODING

&&

EVENT NUMBER EWX1600486

MCO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
419 AM CDT SUN MAY 29 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0208 AM     FLASH FLOOD      1 ENE CENTER POINT      29.94N  99.01W
05/29/2016                   KERR               TX   EMERGENCY MNGR

            GOVERNMENT CROSSING OF FM 1350 CLOSED DUE TO FLOODING
            AT THE GUADALUPE RIVER

&&

EVENT NUMBER EWX1600487

MCO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
425 AM CDT SUN MAY 29 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0420 AM     FLASH FLOOD      1 N CENTER POINT        29.95N  99.04W
05/29/2016                   KERR               TX   EMERGENCY MNGR

            EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT REPORTED HIGHWAY 27 NEAR
            CENTERPOINT WAS IMPASSABLE DUE TO FLOODING

&&

EVENT NUMBER EWX1600488

MCO

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
427 AM CDT SUN MAY 29 2016

TXZ204-291015-
MEDINA TX-
427 AM CDT SUN MAY 29 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL MEDINA COUNTY UNTIL 515
AM CDT...

AT 427 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR
D'HANIS...OR 7 MILES NORTHWEST OF HONDO...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
HONDO...D'HANIS AND MICO.

LAT...LON 2942 9939 2963 9918 2962 9900 2960 9898
      2959 9899 2956 9899 2955 9897 2956 9896
      2956 9893 2951 9888 2928 9925
TIME...MOT...LOC 0927Z 228DEG 18KT 2941 9926

ALLEN