Alert archive / Texas / River Flood Warnings in 2016

River Flood Warning 50, NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

May 29, 2016Bandera County, Texas

NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX issued this river flood warning at May 29, 2016, 2:05 AM CDT for Bandera County, Texas. It took effect at May 29, 2016, 3:19 AM CDT. It was in force for 23 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
May 29, 2016, 2:05 AM CDT (07:05 UTC)
In effect from
May 29, 2016, 3:19 AM CDT
Expired
May 30, 2016, 2:40 AM CDT
In force
23 hr
Issued by
NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX
Area
Storm-based polygon
Flood severity
Moderate

County Bandera County, TX

The radar

The Austin/San Antonio radar (KEWX), 95 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 07:04 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The river

Written for the forecast point Medina River at Bandera (BDAT2). The gauge peaked at 20.44 ft at May 29, 2016, 5:00 AM CDT.

actionminormoderate510152005/2905/3005/31
Action stage
10 ft
Minor stage
13 ft
Moderate stage
14 ft
Major stage
24 ft

This gauge today: stage, forecast and historic crests

Stage from the USGS instantaneous record for site 08178880, one reading an hour, from a day before the product to a day after it ended. Flood stages are today's.

The text

As transmitted.

562 
WGUS44 KEWX 290705
FLWEWX
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
205 AM CDT SUN MAY 29 2016

...The National Weather Service in Austin/San Antonio has issued 
 a flood warning for the... 

  Medina River 
  
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

All persons with interests along the river should monitor 
the latest forecasts, and be prepared to take necessary 
precautions to protect life and property. 
 
River stage forecasts are based on observed rainfall along with 
predicted rain for the next 12 hours. If actual rainfall varies 
from forecast values, forecast river stages will vary. 
 
Do not drive automobiles through flooded areas. Remember, 18 inches 
of water or less can carry away most vehicles, including trucks. 
 
If you see flood waters or come upon a flooded roadway, remember 
to turn around and do not drown. 
 
For the latest river stages and forecasts visit our web page at 
www.srh.noaa.gov/ewx.

&&

TXC019-300105-
/O.NEW.KEWX.FL.W.0050.160529T0837Z-160530T0440Z/
/BDAT2.2.ER.160529T0837Z.160529T1000Z.160529T1640Z.NO/
205 AM CDT SUN MAY 29 2016

 The National Weather Service in Austin/San Antonio has issued a 

* Flood Warning for 
  the Medina River At Bandera.
* until this evening...or until the warning is cancelled.
* At  1:45 AM Sunday the stage was 11.5 feet.
* Flood stage is 13.0 feet.
* Moderate flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...Rise above flood stage by early this morning and continue to rise 
  to near 15.2 feet by early Sunday morning.The river will fall below flood stage 
  by late Sunday morning. There is a possibility for the river to rise to near 
  major flooding at 24 feet.
* Impact...At 15.0 feet...Moderate lowland flooding covers lowest parking sites 
  at Camp Jellystone in Bandera and is threatening the second level. Residents 
  in Camp Jellystone should monitor NOAA Weather Radio for developing heavy rain
  and flood conditions. Lowest homes at the upper end of Medina Lake are 
  threatened if the lake is near spillway level..
* FLOOD HISTORY...THIS CREST COMPARES TO A PREVIOUS CREST OF 14.5 feet on Mar 30 
  2007.

&&


Below are the latest river stages and forecasts:


                    BF  FLD  Observed            Forecast 7AM
Location           STG  STG    STG    DAY TIME   Sun   Mon   Tue   Wed   Thu
  Bandera           10   13   11.5   Sun 02 AM  14.7   9.8   9.1   8.6   8.3


&&

LAT...LON 2969 9908 2975 9908 2971 9893 2956 9891
      2954 9898 2967 9900             

$$
4 follow-up statements
622 
WGUS84 KEWX 290820
FLSEWX
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
320 AM CDT SUN MAY 29 2016

...The flood warning continues for the following rivers in Texas...

  Medina River At Bandera Affecting Bandera County
  
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

All persons with interests along the river should monitor 
the latest forecasts, and be prepared to take necessary 
precautions to protect life and property. 

River stage forecasts are based on observed rainfall along with 
predicted rain for the next 12 hours. If actual rainfall varies 
from forecast values, forecast river stages will vary. 

Do not drive automobiles through flooded areas. Remember, 18 inches 
of water or less can carry away most vehicles, including trucks. 

If you see flood waters or come upon a flooded roadway, remember 
to turn around and do not drown. 

For the latest river stages and forecasts visit our web page at 
www.srh.noaa.gov/ewx.

&&

TXC019-300220-
/O.EXT.KEWX.FL.W.0050.160529T0819Z-160530T0940Z/
/BDAT2.2.ER.160529T0711Z.160529T1000Z.160529T2140Z.NO/
320 AM CDT SUN MAY 29 2016

 The flood warning continues for
  the Medina River At Bandera.
* At  2:45 AM Sunday the stage was 14.9 feet.
* Flood stage is 13.0 feet.
* Moderate flooding is occurring and Moderate flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river will continue rising to near 18.2 feet by early this 
  morning. The river will fall below flood stage late this afternoon.
* Impact...At 15.0 feet...Moderate lowland flooding covers lowest parking sites 
  at Camp Jellystone in Bandera and is threatening the second level. Residents 
  in Camp Jellystone should monitor NOAA Weather Radio for developing heavy rain
  and flood conditions. Lowest homes at the upper end of Medina Lake are 
  threatened if the lake is near spillway level..

&&


Below are the latest river stages and forecasts:


                    BF  FLD  Observed            Forecast 7AM
Location           STG  STG    STG    DAY TIME   Sun   Mon   Tue   Wed   Thu
  Bandera           10   13   14.9   Sun 03 AM  18.2  10.5   9.6   9.1   8.7


&&

LAT...LON 2969 9908 2975 9908 2971 9893 2956 9891
      2954 9898 2967 9900             

$$
655 
WGUS44 KEWX 291008
FLWEWX
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
507 AM CDT SUN MAY 29 2016

...The National Weather Service in Austin/San Antonio has issued 
 a flood warning for the... 

  Medina River 
  
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

All persons with interests along the river should monitor 
the latest forecasts, and be prepared to take necessary 
precautions to protect life and property. 
 
River stage forecasts are based on observed rainfall along with 
predicted rain for the next 12 hours. If actual rainfall varies 
from forecast values, forecast river stages will vary. 
 
Do not drive automobiles through flooded areas. Remember, 18 inches 
of water or less can carry away most vehicles, including trucks. 
 
If you see flood waters or come upon a flooded roadway, remember 
to turn around and do not drown. 
 
For the latest river stages and forecasts visit our web page at 
www.srh.noaa.gov/ewx.

&&

TXC019-300407-
/O.EXT.KEWX.FL.W.0050.000000T0000Z-160530T1250Z/
/BDAT2.3.ER.160529T0711Z.160529T1100Z.160530T0050Z.NO/
507 AM CDT SUN MAY 29 2016

...Forecast flooding increased from Moderate to Major severity... 
The flood warning continues for 
 the Medina River At Bandera.
* until Monday morning...or until the warning is cancelled. 
* At  4:45 AM Sunday the stage was 20.0 feet.
* Flood stage is 13.0 feet.
* Moderate flooding is occurring and Major flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river will continue rising to near 24.1 feet by this morning. 
  The river will fall below flood stage this evening.
* Impact...At 24.0 feet...Major flooding reaches all of the RV camp sites at 
  Camp Jellystone just below Highway 173 in Bandera. Many secondary and primary 
  roads and bridges near the Medina River are flooded and very dangerous. Lowest
  homes at the upper end of Medina Lake flood, with the severity depending on 
  the Medina Lake level..
* FLOOD HISTORY...THIS CREST COMPARES TO A PREVIOUS CREST OF 24.5 feet on Jun 22 
  1997.

&&


Below are the latest river stages and forecasts:


                    BF  FLD  Observed            Forecast 7AM
Location           STG  STG    STG    DAY TIME   Sun   Mon   Tue   Wed   Thu
  Bandera           10   13   20.0   Sun 05 AM  24.1  11.2   9.8   9.3   8.9


&&

LAT...LON 2969 9908 2975 9908 2971 9893 2956 9891
      2954 9898 2967 9900             

$$
304 
WGUS84 KEWX 291443
FLSEWX
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
943 AM CDT SUN MAY 29 2016

...The flood warning continues for the following rivers in Texas...
  Medina River At Bandera Affecting Bandera County
  Leon Creek At I-35 Affecting Bexar County
  Medina River At Hwy 281 Affecting Bexar County
  San Antonio River Near Elmendorf Affecting Bexar and Wilson Counties

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

All persons with interests along the river should monitor 
the latest forecasts, and be prepared to take necessary 
precautions to protect life and property. 

River stage forecasts are based on observed rainfall along with 
predicted rain for the next 12 hours. If actual rainfall varies 
from forecast values, forecast river stages will vary. 

Do not drive automobiles through flooded areas. Remember, 18 inches 
of water or less can carry away most vehicles, including trucks. 

If you see flood waters or come upon a flooded roadway, remember 
to turn around and do not drown. 

For the latest river stages and forecasts visit our web page at 
www.srh.noaa.gov/ewx.

&&

TXC019-300843-
/O.EXT.KEWX.FL.W.0050.000000T0000Z-160530T1300Z/
/BDAT2.2.ER.160529T0711Z.160529T1000Z.160530T0100Z.NO/
943 AM CDT SUN MAY 29 2016

 The flood warning continues for the Medina River At Bandera.
* At  8:45 AM Sunday the stage was 16.1 feet.
* Flood stage is 13.0 feet.
* Moderate flooding is occurring and Moderate flooding is forecast. The river
  level will be falling and is expected to go below flood stage by early Sunday
  evening.
* Impact...At 17.0 feet...Moderate lowland flooding threatens the second level 
  of trailer spaces at Camp Jellystone at Highway 173 in Bandera and homes at 
  the upper end of Medina Lake. Lowest trailer sites at Camp Jellystone are 
  under several feet of water..

&& 

Below are the latest river stages and forecasts:
                    BF  FLD  Observed            Forecast 7AM
Location           STG  STG    STG    Day Time   Mon   Tue   Wed   Thu   Fri
 Bandera            10   13   16.1   Sun 09 AM   9.8   8.6   8.2   7.9   7.6


&&

LAT...LON 2969 9908 2975 9908 2971 9893 2956 9891
      2954 9898 2967 9900             

$$

TXC029-300830-
/O.EXT.KEWX.FL.W.0054.160529T2200Z-160530T0830Z/
/LKST2.1.ER.160529T2200Z.160530T0100Z.160530T0230Z.NO/
943 AM CDT SUN MAY 29 2016

 The flood warning continues for the Leon Creek At I-35.
* At  9:15 AM Sunday the stage was 7.6 feet.
* Flood stage is 15.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river level is expected to rise above flood stage by late Sunday
  afternoon and continue to rise to near 15.2 feet by Sunday evening.
* Impact...At 15.0 feet...Moderate lowland flooding reaches secondary and 
  primary roads and low bridges above Kelly USA to below I-35. Flow approaches 
  mobile homes at Camargo Park near the Missions Baseball Park..

&& 

Below are the latest river stages and forecasts:
                    BF  FLD  Observed            Forecast 7AM
Location           STG  STG    STG    Day Time   Mon   Tue   Wed   Thu   Fri
 I-35               13   15    7.6   Sun 09 AM  10.6   6.0   4.2   3.7   3.6


&&

LAT...LON 2946 9869 2950 9867 2942 9856 2926 9847
      2926 9856 2941 9864             

$$

TXC029-300843-
/O.EXT.KEWX.FL.W.0055.160529T2230Z-160531T1926Z/
/SAAT2.2.ER.160529T2230Z.160530T1200Z.160531T0726Z.NO/
943 AM CDT SUN MAY 29 2016

 The flood warning continues for the Medina River At Hwy 281.
* At  9:15 AM Sunday the stage was 6.6 feet.
* Flood stage is 20.0 feet.
* Moderate flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river level is expected to rise above flood stage by late Sunday
  afternoon and continue to rise to near 24.4 feet by Monday morning.
* Impact...At 24.0 feet...Moderate lowland flooding floods secondary roads and 
  bridges making them dangerous to traffic..

&& 

Below are the latest river stages and forecasts:
                    BF  FLD  Observed            Forecast 7AM
Location           STG  STG    STG    Day Time   Mon   Tue   Wed   Thu   Fri
 Hwy 281            16   20    6.6   Sun 09 AM  24.4  17.8   7.9   6.3   6.2


&&

LAT...LON 2922 9857 2929 9857 2926 9835 2919 9838


$$

TXC029-493-300843-
/O.EXT.KEWX.FL.W.0056.160529T2306Z-160531T1255Z/
/ELMT2.2.ER.160529T2306Z.160530T1200Z.160531T0055Z.NO/
943 AM CDT SUN MAY 29 2016

 The flood warning continues for the San Antonio River Near Elmendorf.
* At  9:30 AM Sunday the stage was 14.4 feet.
* Flood stage is 35.0 feet.
* Moderate flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river level is expected to rise above flood stage by Sunday
  evening and continue to rise to near 39.4 feet by Monday morning.
* Impact...At 39.0 feet...Moderate lowland flooding damages crops and floods 
  pastureland below San Antonio to below Floresville. Secondary roads and low 
  bridges, irrigation pumps, oil field pump jacks and tank batteries flood. 
  Livestock are cut off in low areas..

&& 

Below are the latest river stages and forecasts:
                    BF  FLD  Observed            Forecast 7AM
Location           STG  STG    STG    Day Time   Mon   Tue   Wed   Thu   Fri
 Elmendorf          33   35   14.4   Sun 09 AM  39.4  30.0  19.7  16.5  16.1


&&

LAT...LON 2919 9838 2926 9835 2920 9817 2899 9804
      2894 9813 2915 9825             

$$

sbs
006 
WGUS84 KEWX 300740
FLSEWX
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
240 AM CDT MON MAY 30 2016

...The flood warning is cancelled for the following rivers in Texas...

  Medina River At Bandera Affecting Bandera County
  San Antonio River Near Elmendorf Affecting Bexar and Wilson Counties

...The flood warning continues for the following rivers in Texas...

  Medina River At Hwy 281 Affecting Bexar County

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

All persons with interests along the river should monitor 
the latest forecasts, and be prepared to take necessary 
precautions to protect life and property. 

River stage forecasts are based on observed rainfall along with 
predicted rain for the next 12 hours. If actual rainfall varies 
from forecast values, forecast river stages will vary. 

Do not drive automobiles through flooded areas. Remember, 18 inches 
of water or less can carry away most vehicles, including trucks. 

If you see flood waters or come upon a flooded roadway, remember 
to turn around and do not drown. 

For the latest river stages and forecasts visit our web page at 
www.srh.noaa.gov/ewx.

&&

TXC019-300810-
/O.CAN.KEWX.FL.W.0050.000000T0000Z-160530T1300Z/
/BDAT2.2.ER.160529T0711Z.160529T1000Z.160529T1956Z.NO/
240 AM CDT MON MAY 30 2016

The flood warning is cancelled for
  the Medina River At Bandera.
* At  1:45 AM Monday the stage was 9.6 feet.
* Flood stage is 13.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river will continue to fall to 9.3 feet by tomorrow morning.
* Impact...At 12.0 feet...Water covers lowest areas of the flood plain with no 
  significant damage. Residents of mobile home parks and the upper end of Medina
  Lake should monitor NOAA Weather Radio for developing flood conditions.

&&


Below are the latest river stages and forecasts:


                    BF  FLD  Observed            Forecast 7AM
Location           STG  STG    STG    DAY TIME   Mon   Tue   Wed   Thu   Fri
  Bandera           10   13    9.6   Mon 02 AM   9.2   9.3   8.7   8.3   7.9


&&

LAT...LON 2969 9908 2975 9908 2971 9893 2956 9891
      2954 9898 2967 9900             

$$

TXC029-310139-
/O.EXT.KEWX.FL.W.0055.000000T0000Z-160531T1213Z/
/SAAT2.1.ER.160530T1730Z.160530T1800Z.160531T0013Z.NO/
240 AM CDT MON MAY 30 2016

 The flood warning continues for
  the Medina River At Hwy 281.
* At  2:15 AM Monday the stage was 14.7 feet.
* Flood stage is 20.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...rise above flood stage by this afternoon and continue to rise to 
  near 20.2 feet by this afternoon. The river will fall below flood stage by 
  this evening.
* Impact...At 20.0 feet...Minor lowland flooding reaches the Farm to Market 1937
  bridge floor.

&&


Below are the latest river stages and forecasts:


                    BF  FLD  Observed            Forecast 7AM
Location           STG  STG    STG    DAY TIME   Mon   Tue   Wed   Thu   Fri
  Hwy 281           16   20   14.7   Mon 02 AM  17.8  13.9   8.6   9.8  14.7


&&

LAT...LON 2922 9857 2929 9857 2926 9835 2919 9838


$$

TXC029-493-300810-
/O.CAN.KEWX.FL.W.0056.000000T0000Z-160531T1800Z/
/ELMT2.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
240 AM CDT MON MAY 30 2016

The flood warning is cancelled for
  the San Antonio River Near Elmendorf.
* At  2:30 AM Monday the stage was 26.5 feet.
* Flood stage is 35.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river will crest below flood stage at 31.0 feet after midnight 
  tomorrow.


&&


Below are the latest river stages and forecasts:


                    BF  FLD  Observed            Forecast 7AM
Location           STG  STG    STG    DAY TIME   Mon   Tue   Wed   Thu   Fri
  Elmendorf         33   35   26.5   Mon 02 AM  25.9  30.5  22.2  21.3  25.2


&&

LAT...LON 2919 9838 2926 9835 2920 9817 2899 9804
      2894 9813 2915 9825             

$$

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this river flood warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX wrote its last area forecast discussion before this river flood warning went out at May 29, 1:07 AM CDT, 58 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, May 29, 1:07 AM CDT, 58 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
107 AM CDT SUN MAY 29 2016

.AVIATION... /06z TAF update/

A small storm complex covering much of the Hill Country and
northern reaches of the Rio Grande Plains will produce some
occasional heavy downpours over SAT through 08z and possibly SSF
through 09z. Lightning and reduced VSBY from torrential downpours
should be the main concern...but a few gusts over 25 knots are
possible at SAT. The lightning extends well to the east in a
stratiform area that is impacting ABIA, but this should decrease
by around 08z. Storms were temporarily pulled from DRT, an outflow
boundary may send convective focus their way between 07z and 09z.
With the complex weakening slightly, will leave this out of the
TAFs for now. There should be a brief period of clearing among the
downdraft air, but IFR CIGS and VSBYS should encroach back into
the TAF sites before daybreak. From there, will follow a mix of
persistence and model guidance in improvements to VFR in the early
afternoon and lowering back to MVFR for most sites in the late
evening.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1109 PM CDT SAT MAY 28 2016/

UPDATE...
Complex of storms continues to evolve into a possible overnight
heavy rain threat and continued threat of severe storms. Extended
the severe thunderstorm watch for two hours and added a row of
counties to the east to include Comal and Bexar Counties until
06z.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 937 PM CDT SAT MAY 28 2016/

MESOSCALE UPDATE...
Complicated forecast evolution for the overnight period with the
ongoing thunderstorm complex across the northwest CWA. Convection
was kicked off this afternoon with daytime heating in an area of
surface moisture confluence. Some of the storms became severe,
but it appears at the present time that the main threat going
forward will be heavy rainfall. Forecast soundings do show some
de-coupling overnight, but not enough to really increase the
nocturnal cap to help suppress convection. There is little upper
forcing to really support the convection, but since it is now
ongoing, the storms will be able to continue as long as the cold
pools continue to move out from under the convection and help to
sustain and support new updrafts. This seems to be continuing
just fine at the present time as evident by continued cloud tops
on IR of near -75C.

The main question now is how long the storms will continue and
what the overall movement will be. the KEWX VAD wind profile shows
deep south/southeasterly flow of 20 to 30 knots in the lower 7 kft
of the atmosphere with model guidance slightly increasing the
wind speeds. This should help continue to feed the MCC with
moisture and help with some weak lift up the escarpment. The HRRR
has had a tough time with the placement of the current convection
but does show some continued movement of a potential MCC to the
south/southeast. This helps increase confidence of a prolonged
system. Forward propagation vectors do show movement to the east,
but we have not seen that at the present time.

Current thinking is that the system should sustain itself over the
next few hours before some slow weakening should occur. Upped the
pops across the west-central CWA to likely and mentioned locally
heavy rainfall for this area to continue the trend of a slow-
moving system to the SSE. Increased PoPs to the east a bit to
account for any possible eastward movement and to account for
lighter activity forming to the east of the main thunderstorm
core.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 628 PM CDT SAT MAY 28 2016/

AVIATION.../00z Update/
Concerns this forecast will be convection this evening and then
the development of MVFR/IFR cigs. Currently isolated showers and
thunderstorms have developed west of I-35. Expecting to see more
development this evening. If the convection does develop and can
last long enough we may see some approach the I-35 sites after
06z. prior to that showers are possible and have included a VCSH
group for KSAT/KSSF. Convection west of KDRT may get close to Del
Rio but timing is not certain and for this reason I did include a
VCTS through 02z. Onset of MVFR cigs likely to be a couple hours
sooner tonight and have all the I-35 terminals seeing the cigs
lower starting 04z- 05z. After 07z-08z should see IFR cigs along
I-35. KDRT will see MVFR cigs starting around 08z with the IFR
cigs expected around 12z. VFR conditions are expected after 17z-
18z. All site have the potential to see fog due to the wet ground.
Lowest visibilities likely at KAUS (2SM) with all other terminals
remaining in the 4sm-6sm range. E/SE winds near 10 knots tonight
then SE 10-15 knots after 15z Sunday. KDRT will see wind gusts to
around 20 knots after 18z through sunset.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 304 PM CDT SAT MAY 28 2016/

SHORT TERM (Tonight through Sunday Night)...
At 230 PM, South Central Texas surface analysis showed
temperatures ranging from the mid 80s to low 90s with dewpoints in
the low to mid 70s, showing the entire CWA as quite moist and
unstable. North and west of the CWA a dry line was positioned from
just west of Sanderson to Sheffield up to Sweetwater. Latest
RAP/HRRR/LAPS soundings show capping eroding west of a line from
Uvalde to Junction. Weak capping is holding on in SAT/AUS per the
same forecast soundings. Aircraft soundings out of KSAT also show
weakening but still decent cap. With convective temperatures right
around 90-92 degrees and surface temperatures near 90 south of the
Plateau...believe convective initiation will take place in the
next 1-2 hours within the slight risk area SPC has annotated.

With SBCAPE values very high again and DCAPEs AOA 1000 j/kg, very
large hail and wind gusts up to 60 mph will be the main threat.
While the upper level support is lacking currently due to broad
ridging overhead...a shortwave disturbance is progged to enter the
Big Bend region after 7PM. This weak upper level support coupled
with the high instability, decent shear, steep lapse rates, and
theta-e convergence along the dry line, think the slight risk area
is laid out well for this afternoon and evening. Thinking the
tornado threat is rather low but 0-3 km SRH values are in the
150-200 range this evening west of I-35 and LCLs are lowest south
of the escarpment (Winter Garden), so cannot rule out one in this
area.

Thinking storm coverage should wane before midnight as we lose
instability. Tomorrow looks to be a very similar pattern with
afternoon/evening convection along the dry line out west again.
SPC has included the same general area in a slight risk with the
same threats as well for Sunday.

LONG TERM (Monday through Saturday)...
A southwest flow regime will set up for the week with weaker
shortwaves impacting the moist air mass over the region through
Tuesday. Included 30-40 PoP values for both Monday and slightly
higher Tuesday as these pass over.

The next significant storm system for South Central Texas looks to
be on Wednesday ahead of a strong cold front. Models are
indicating 1-3 inches of storm total rainfall associated with this
system and with the moist soils from the last few days heavy rain
event, flash flooding would be the main concern Wednesday.
However, the progression of the cold front looks fast enough at
this time that training shouldn't be an issue but due to the
antecedent conditions, the flash flood threat will be possible
regardless.

Late in the week, the cold front should result in a drier and
cooler air mass at least through Saturday. Temperatures should be
below normal, with highs in the 80s for the first week of June.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              71  85  70  84  71 /  20  30  20  40  40
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  71  85  70  85  71 /  20  30  20  40  30
New Braunfels Muni Airport     71  86  71  85  71 /  20  30  30  50  30
Burnet Muni Airport            69  84  69  83  69 /  30  30  30  50  50
Del Rio Intl Airport           73  87  71  88  72 /  40  30  40  40  40
Georgetown Muni Airport        69  84  69  84  70 /  20  30  20  40  40
Hondo Muni Airport             72  87  71  86  71 /  20  30  40  50  40
San Marcos Muni Airport        71  86  69  84  71 /  20  30  20  40  30
La Grange - Fayette Regional   72  86  70  85  72 /  10  20  10  40  20
San Antonio Intl Airport       72  86  72  86  72 /  20  30  30  50  40
Stinson Muni Airport           73  87  73  87  73 /  20  30  30  50  40

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

Mesoscale/Aviation...Oaks
Synoptic/Grids...04
Hazardous weather outlook, May 28, 10:58 PM CDT, 3 hours 7 minutes before
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1058 PM CDT SAT MAY 28 2016

TXZ171>173-183>194-202>209-217>225-228-300400-
LLANO-BURNET-WILLIAMSON-VAL VERDE-EDWARDS-REAL-KERR-BANDERA-
GILLESPIE-KENDALL-BLANCO-HAYS-TRAVIS-BASTROP-LEE-KINNEY-UVALDE-
MEDINA-BEXAR-COMAL-GUADALUPE-CALDWELL-FAYETTE-MAVERICK-ZAVALA-
FRIO-ATASCOSA-WILSON-KARNES-GONZALES-DE WITT-LAVACA-DIMMIT-
1058 PM CDT SAT MAY 28 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT THROUGH 1 AM FOR AREAS
TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF A LINE FROM DEL RIO TO SAN ANTONIO TO
BLANCO. THERE IS A RISK OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS THIS EVENING
ACROSS THIS AREA. THE MAIN THREAT WITH ANY SEVERE STORMS WILL BE
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

IN ADDITION TO THE SEVERE THREAT WILL BE THE THREAT FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL. SOME STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING UP TO 2-4
INCHES OF RAINFALL WHICH COULD LEAD TO POSSIBLE FLASH FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

A CONTINUED ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL PERSIST INTO LATE NEXT
WEEK. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHTLY STRONGER POTENTIAL OF STORMS
MID-WEEK. PLEASE STAY TUNED FOR FURTHER UPDATES AS IMPACTS FROM
POTENTIAL HAZARDS BECOME MORE CLEAR.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

PLEASE REPORT ANY SEVERE WEATHER OR FLOODING TO THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE.

In the hours before

Local storm report, May 28, 11:42 PM CDT, 2 hours 23 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1142 PM CDT SAT MAY 28 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1136 PM     HEAVY RAIN       3 N CAMP VERDE          29.93N  99.10W
05/28/2016  M3.00 INCH       KERR               TX   PUBLIC

            3 INCHES OF RAIN FELL IN 1 HOUR

&&

EVENT NUMBER EWX1600477

MCO
Local storm report, May 28, 11:58 PM CDT, 2 hours 7 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1158 PM CDT SAT MAY 28 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1156 PM     FLASH FLOOD      3 NW KERRVILLE          30.08N  99.18W
05/28/2016                   KERR               TX   BROADCAST MEDIA

            EVACUATION OF A HOME ON WEST LANE WITH WATER ENTERING
            HOME

&&

EVENT NUMBER EWX1600478

MCO
Special weather statement, May 29, 12:32 AM CDT, 1 hour 33 minutes before
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1232 AM CDT SUN MAY 29 2016

TXZ185>187-189-202>204-290615-
BANDERA TX-REAL TX-KINNEY TX-KENDALL TX-MEDINA TX-UVALDE TX-KERR TX-
1232 AM CDT SUN MAY 29 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN KERR...WESTERN
KENDALL...NORTHERN UVALDE...EAST CENTRAL KINNEY...CENTRAL BANDERA...
NORTHERN MEDINA AND SOUTHERN REAL COUNTIES UNTIL 115 AM CDT...

AT 1232 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG
A LINE EXTENDING FROM NEAR WARING TO 6 MILES SOUTHEAST OF TARPLEY TO
6 MILES NORTHWEST OF LAGUNA. MOVEMENT WAS SOUTH AT 15 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS OF 50 TO 55 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
BOERNE...COMFORT...BANDERA...TARPLEY...CAMP WOOD...LAGUNA...GARNER STATE
PARK...MONTELL...LAKEHILLS...RIO FRIO...WARING...CONCAN...PIPE CREEK...
UTOPIA...REAGAN WELLS...WELFARE...NELSON CITY AND BANDERA FALLS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS...AND MAY LEAD
TO LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 10 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

PERSONS IN CAMPGROUNDS SHOULD CONSIDER SEEKING STURDY SHELTER UNTIL
THESE STORMS PASS.

&&

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 100 AM CDT FOR
SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.

LAT...LON 3008 9875 2963 9881 2940 9929 2933 10019
      2962 10007 2963 10001 2967 10003 2972 9930
TIME...MOT...LOC 0532Z 017DEG 13KT 2996 9883 2956 9922 2946 10010

ALLEN
Local storm report, May 29, 1:26 AM CDT, 39 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
126 AM CDT SUN MAY 29 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0118 AM     FLASH FLOOD      BANDERA                 29.72N  99.07W
05/29/2016                   BANDERA            TX   EMERGENCY MNGR

            2 HIGH WATER RESCUES IN PROGRESS... ONE NEAR MASON
            CREEK AT CHIPMAN LANE AND ANOTHER NEAR RIVER BEND DRIVE

&&

EVENT NUMBER EWX1600479

MCO
Local storm report, May 29, 1:47 AM CDT, 18 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
147 AM CDT SUN MAY 29 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0143 AM     HAIL             LAKEHILLS               29.60N  98.94W
05/29/2016  E0.70 INCH       BANDERA            TX   BROADCAST MEDIA

            DIME SIZED HAIL REPORTED BY TV VIEWER

&&

EVENT NUMBER EWX1600480

MCO
Special weather statement, May 29, 2:01 AM CDT, 4 minutes before
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
201 AM CDT SUN MAY 29 2016

TXZ204-219-290745-
FRIO TX-MEDINA TX-
201 AM CDT SUN MAY 29 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTH CENTRAL FRIO AND CENTRAL
MEDINA COUNTIES UNTIL 245 AM CDT...

AT 201 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG
A LINE EXTENDING FROM 8 MILES WEST OF MICO TO 6 MILES NORTHWEST OF
BIRY TO NEAR YANCEY. MOVEMENT WAS SOUTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS OF 50 TO 55 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
HONDO...MOORE...NEW FOUNTAIN...DUNLAY...BADER...YANCEY...BIRY...QUIHI AND
MICO.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS...AND MAY LEAD
TO LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 10 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

THESE STORMS MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO
STATIONS AND AVAILABLE TELEVISION STATIONS FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

PERSONS IN CAMPGROUNDS SHOULD CONSIDER SEEKING STURDY SHELTER UNTIL
THESE STORMS PASS.

&&

LAT...LON 2901 9925 2914 9935 2935 9922 2962 9919
      2961 9898 2956 9899 2955 9897 2956 9893
      2961 9888 2961 9884 2897 9904
TIME...MOT...LOC 0701Z 327DEG 15KT 2953 9907 2928 9909 2914 9918

ALLEN

The office that day

Everything else NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
May 28, 7:32 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningEWXBandera, Kerr58 min
May 28, 7:33 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningEWXMedina40 min
May 28, 7:58 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningEWXGillespie, Kerr62 min
May 28, 8:17 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningEWXKerr, Real58 min
May 28, 8:31 PM CDTSpecial Weather StatementEWXMedina44 min
May 28, 8:39 PM CDTAreal Flood AdvisoryEWXGillespie, Kerr2 hr
May 28, 9:17 PM CDTSpecial Weather StatementEWXReal58 min
May 28, 9:19 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningEWXMedina, Uvalde56 min
May 28, 9:21 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningEWXBandera, Edwards, Gillespie, Kerr, Real54 min
May 28, 10:03 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningEWXBandera, Medina, Real, Uvalde57 min
May 28, 10:20 PM CDTSpecial Weather StatementEWXReal40 min
May 28, 10:21 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningEWXBandera, Gillespie, Kendall, Kerr39 min
May 28, 10:39 PM CDTAreal Flood WarningEWXBandera, Kendall, Kerr3 hr
May 28, 10:52 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningEWXReal38 min
May 28, 10:53 PM CDTSpecial Weather StatementEWXEdwards67 min
May 28, 11:05 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningEWXBandera, Kendall, Kerr55 min
May 28, 11:19 PM CDTRiver Flood WarningEWXKerr25 hr
May 28, 11:19 PM CDTRiver Flood WarningEWXKerr17 hr
May 28, 11:23 PM CDTFlash Flood WarningEWXBandera, Kendall, Kerr, Real8 hr
May 28, 11:27 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningEWXEdwards, Kinney, Real, Uvalde33 min
May 28, 11:38 PM CDTSpecial Weather StatementEWXKinney52 min
May 28, 11:59 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningEWXBandera, Edwards, Kendall, Kerr, Kinney, Medina and 2 more31 min
May 29, 12:07 AM CDTFlash Flood WarningEWXBandera, Medina, Real, Uvalde5 hr
May 29, 12:32 AM CDTSpecial Weather StatementEWXBandera43 min
May 29, 12:55 AM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningEWXBandera, Medina, Uvalde65 min
May 29, 1:12 AM CDTAreal Flood AdvisoryEWXEdwards2 hr
May 29, 1:25 AM CDTFlash Flood WarningEWXBandera, Medina4 hr
May 29, 1:51 AM CDTFlash Flood WarningEWXMedina, Uvalde6 hr
May 29, 2:01 AM CDTSpecial Weather StatementEWXMedina44 min
May 29, 2:19 AM CDTRiver Flood WarningEWXKendall15 hr
May 29, 2:33 AM CDTSpecial Weather StatementEWXUvalde42 min
May 29, 2:35 AM CDTSpecial Weather StatementEWXMedina40 min
May 29, 2:42 AM CDTAreal Flood AdvisoryEWXKinney, Uvalde2 hr
May 29, 2:50 AM CDTRiver Flood WarningEWXUvalde24 hr
May 29, 3:00 AM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningEWXAtascosa, Bexar, Medina45 min
May 29, 3:09 AM CDTRiver Flood WarningEWXComal34 hr
May 29, 3:16 AM CDTAreal Flood AdvisoryEWXAtascosa, Bexar, Medina119 min
May 29, 3:39 AM CDTFlash Flood WarningEWXAtascosa, Bexar, Medina5 hr
May 29, 3:46 AM CDTSpecial Weather StatementEWXBexar44 min
May 29, 3:55 AM CDTRiver Flood WarningEWXBexar17 hr
May 29, 3:55 AM CDTRiver Flood WarningEWXBexar48 hr
May 29, 3:55 AM CDTRiver Flood WarningEWXBexar, Wilson41 hr
May 29, 4:14 AM CDTSpecial Weather StatementEWXUvalde46 min
May 29, 4:27 AM CDTSpecial Weather StatementEWXMedina48 min
May 29, 4:35 AM CDTSpecial Weather StatementEWXMedina40 min
May 29, 4:45 AM CDTFlash Flood WarningEWXBandera, Medina, Uvalde3 hr
May 29, 4:49 AM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningEWXMedina, Uvalde41 min
May 29, 4:50 AM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningEWXMedina40 min
May 29, 4:51 AM CDTAreal Flood AdvisoryEWXBexar, Comal3 hr
May 29, 4:51 AM CDTRiver Flood WarningEWXUvalde19 hr
May 29, 4:51 AM CDTRiver Flood WarningEWXUvalde16 hr
May 29, 4:51 AM CDTRiver Flood WarningEWXUvalde24 hr
May 29, 4:59 AM CDTRiver Flood WarningEWXMedina19 hr
May 29, 5:20 AM CDTRiver Flood WarningEWXMedina17 hr
May 29, 5:20 AM CDTSpecial Weather StatementEWXBexar40 min
May 29, 5:58 AM CDTSpecial Weather StatementEWXFrio47 min
May 29, 6:38 AM CDTAreal Flood AdvisoryEWXFrio3 hr
May 29, 7:18 AM CDTAreal Flood AdvisoryEWXAtascosa, Frio3 hr
May 29, 7:32 AM CDTAreal Flood AdvisoryEWXBandera, Kendall, Kerr, Medina, Uvalde3 hr
May 29, 8:29 AM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningEWXAtascosa46 min
May 29, 9:14 AM CDTSpecial Weather StatementEWXGonzales, Wilson46 min
May 29, 9:15 AM CDTRiver Flood WarningEWXUvalde26 hr
May 29, 9:15 AM CDTRiver Flood WarningEWXFrio4 days
May 29, 9:15 AM CDTRiver Flood WarningEWXDimmit4 days
May 29, 9:16 AM CDTSpecial Weather StatementEWXKarnes44 min
May 29, 10:03 AM CDTSpecial Weather StatementEWXDeWitt, Gonzales, Karnes42 min
May 29, 2:36 PM CDTFlash Flood WatchEWXBandera, Blanco, Edwards, Gillespie, Kendall, Kerr and 5 more20 hr

Nearby

River Flood Warnings in Texas, 2016Every river flood warning in 2016

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive; the gauge from the NWS water service and the USGS.