Special Weather Statement, NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
314 AM CDT SUN MAY 29 2016

.SHORT TERM (Today through Monday)...
Showers and thunderstorms continue between San Antonio and Del Rio
with rains into much of the Hill Country spreading to the I-35
corridor northeast of San Antonio. Expect this to persist a few
more hours, then wane later this morning. However, river flooding
will continue for some areas through much of today. Surface
boundaries from ongoing storms, the dryline over western Texas,
and the Serranias del Burro over Mexico will all serve as focus
and lifting mechanisms for showers and thunderstorms to develop as
convective temperatures are reached today and again Monday. Most
models show the showers and thunderstorms organizing into clusters
(MCS) and moving across mainly the northwestern half of South
Central Texas. Forecast soundings indicate a potential for
isolated strong to severe storms. Motion vectors show some storms
will move slowly making locally heavy rains possible. These could
result in flash flooding and renewed river flooding in areas that
have received heavy rains recently. Many areas may not receive
much rain and the various models showing differing locations of
the heaviest rains.

&&

.LONG TERM (Monday Night through Saturday)...
The short term pattern persists into Tuesday with development of
showers and thunderstorms, then organizing into MCS with strong
to severe and locally heavy rains possible. On Wednesday into
Thursday, an upper level low currently near Point Conception on
the California coast slowly moves across Texas. At the same time,
a cold front drifts across South Central Texas. Moisture levels
increase with convergence leading to PWS of near 2 inches. The
threat for heavy rains becomes more widespread with a greater
chance for flash flooding and river flooding, especially if heavy
rains develop in the short term and moisten the soils further and
maintain high flows in rivers and streams. The upper level low
slowly moves off to the east Friday into next weekend per GFS
while the ECMWF keeps it a bit further to the west and closer to
South Central Texas. Will end rains on Friday, however, should the
ECMWF hold, then rain chances continue next weekend, as well.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              87  71  86  72  85 /  30  30  40  20  50
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  87  70  86  71  85 /  30  30  40  20  50
New Braunfels Muni Airport     88  71  86  72  85 /  30  30  40  30  50
Burnet Muni Airport            85  69  84  70  82 /  30  30  40  30  50
Del Rio Intl Airport           89  73  87  73  89 /  40  40  40  40  40
Georgetown Muni Airport        85  69  85  70  84 /  30  30  40  20  50
Hondo Muni Airport             89  72  86  72  86 /  30  30  40  40  50
San Marcos Muni Airport        86  71  85  71  85 /  30  30  40  20  50
La Grange - Fayette Regional   88  72  86  72  85 /  20  20  30  20  40
San Antonio Intl Airport       88  73  87  73  86 /  30  30  40  30  50
Stinson Muni Airport           89  73  88  73  87 /  30  30  40  30  50

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

Mesoscale/Aviation...Oaks
Synoptic/Grids...04

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
322 AM CDT SUN MAY 29 2016

TXZ171>173-183>194-202>209-217>225-228-300830-
LLANO-BURNET-WILLIAMSON-VAL VERDE-EDWARDS-REAL-KERR-BANDERA-
GILLESPIE-KENDALL-BLANCO-HAYS-TRAVIS-BASTROP-LEE-KINNEY-UVALDE-
MEDINA-BEXAR-COMAL-GUADALUPE-CALDWELL-FAYETTE-MAVERICK-ZAVALA-
FRIO-ATASCOSA-WILSON-KARNES-GONZALES-DE WITT-LAVACA-DIMMIT-
322 AM CDT SUN MAY 29 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF
I-35. PRIMARY SEVERE THREATS ARE FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS. SOME STORMS WILL PRODUCE VERY HEAVY RAINFALL RATES...AND
SPOTTY RAINFALL TOTALS OF 2-4 INCH ARE FORECAST WHICH COULD LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

A CONTINUED ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY
WITH NUMEROUS ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. ANY
STORM CLUSTERS THAT DEVELOP WILL HAVE A CHANCE TO PRODUCE SEVERE
WEATHER AND TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES. HEAVIEST RAIN
POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR WHEN A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
THURSDAY. BY THIS TIME...THERE WILL LIKELY BE A FEW LOCATIONS WITH
5-DAY STORM TOTALS IN EXCESS OF 8 INCHES. PLEASE STAY TUNED FOR
FURTHER UPDATES AS IMPACTS FROM POTENTIAL HAZARDS BECOME MORE
CLEAR.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

PLEASE REPORT ANY SEVERE WEATHER OR FLOODING TO THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
238 AM CDT SUN MAY 29 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0234 AM     FLASH FLOOD      4 SSE UTOPIA            29.57N  99.52W
05/29/2016                   UVALDE             TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            LAW ENFORECEMENT REPORTS SEVERAL FARM TO MARKET ROAD
            CLOSURES BETWEEN UTOPIA AND SABINAL

&&

EVENT NUMBER EWX1600482

MCO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
240 AM CDT SUN MAY 29 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0234 AM     FLASH FLOOD      SABINAL                 29.32N  99.47W
05/29/2016                   UVALDE             TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            LAW ENFORCEMENT REPORTS SEVERAL ROAD CLOSURES IN AND
            AROUND SABINAL.

&&

EVENT NUMBER EWX1600483

MCO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
325 AM CDT SUN MAY 29 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0322 AM     FLASH FLOOD      BANDERA                 29.72N  99.07W
05/29/2016                   BANDERA            TX   EMERGENCY MNGR

            NUMEROUS HIGH WATER RESCUES ONGOING IN AND AROUND
            BANDERA REPORTED BY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.

&&

EVENT NUMBER EWX1600484

MCO

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
346 AM CDT SUN MAY 29 2016

TXZ205-290930-
BEXAR TX-
346 AM CDT SUN MAY 29 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN BEXAR COUNTY UNTIL
430 AM CDT...

AT 346 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER
LACKLAND AFB...OR 9 MILES SOUTHWEST OF SAN ANTONIO...MOVING NORTHEAST
AT 20 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS OF 50 TO 55 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
SAN ANTONIO...LEON VALLEY...KIRBY...HELOTES...ALAMO HEIGHTS...FAIR OAKS
RANCH...WINDCREST...TERRELL HILLS...HOLLYWOOD PARK...SHAVANO PARK...OLMOS
PARK...SOMERSET...LACKLAND AFB...LEON SPRINGS...SEA WORLD...CROSS
MOUNTAIN...THE DOMINION...CASTLE HILLS...BALCONES HEIGHTS AND VON ORMY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD
TO LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 10 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

&&

LAT...LON 2921 9869 2939 9881 2941 9880 2972 9864
      2945 9827 2917 9857
TIME...MOT...LOC 0846Z 212DEG 17KT 2938 9864

ALLEN

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