Severe Thunderstorm Watch 13

Issued

Mar 31, 2015, 5:13 PM CDT (22:13 UTC)

Expired

Apr 1, 2015, 12:00 AM CDT

In force

7 hr

Issued by

the Storm Prediction Center

Largest hail expected

2.5 in

Strongest gust expected

60 kt

The Memphis radar (KNQA), 85 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 22:15 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

Two or more tornadoes

5%

One or more EF2 to EF5 tornadoes

5%

Ten or more severe wind reports

30%

One or more gusts of 65 knots or more

10%

Ten or more severe hail reports

30%

One or more hailstones of 2 inches or more

30%

Six or more combined severe hail and wind reports

50%

• Mesoscale Discussion 162Mar 31, 2:25 PM CDT
• Mesoscale Discussion 171Mar 31, 8:50 PM CDT
• Mesoscale Discussion 173Mar 31, 11:43 PM CDT

439 
WWUS20 KWNS 312213
SEL3  
SPC WW 312213
ARZ000-MOZ000-TNZ000-010300-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 13
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
510 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF 
  CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN ARKANSAS
  MISSOURI BOOTHEEL
  WESTERN TENNESSEE

* EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 510 PM UNTIL
  1000 PM CDT.

* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
  ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 2.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER
    POSSIBLE
  ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 40
STATUTE MILES EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 35 MILES NORTH NORTHWEST
OF LITTLE ROCK ARKANSAS TO 45 MILES EAST NORTHEAST OF JACKSON
TENNESSEE.  FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

&&

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 9...WW 10...WW 11...WW
12...

DISCUSSION...THROUGH EARLY-MID EVENING...WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS
PRESENTLY DEVELOPING/INTENSIFYING OVER OZARKS AND EXTREME SERN MO
SHOULD MOVE INTO CORRIDOR OF FAVORABLE LOW-LEVEL AND
DEEP-TROPOSPHERIC BUOYANCY...LOCATED N OF OUTFLOW ARC FROM MS/SERN
AR CONVECTION.  40-50 KT EFFECTIVE-SHEAR MAGNITUDES ARE EVIDENT
AND...IN TANDEM WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES AND ROUGHLY 2000 J/KG
MLCAPE...INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED TSTMS TO PRODUCE LARGE
HAIL.  ISOLATED DAMAGING GUSTS ARE ALSO PSBL.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 450. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 30030.


...EDWARDS

Severe Thunderstorm Watches in Tennessee, 2015Severe Thunderstorm Watches in Arkansas, 2015Every severe thunderstorm watch in 2015

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.