Alert archive / Arkansas / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2015

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 38, NWS Memphis, TN

March 31, 2015Crittenden County, Cross County, Poinsett County, Arkansas

NWS Memphis, TN issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Mar 31, 2015, 11:27 PM CDT for Crittenden County, Cross County, Poinsett County, Arkansas. It was in force for 33 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The counties it named.

The facts

Issued: Mar 31, 2015, 11:27 PM CDT (04:27 UTC)
Expired: Apr 1, 2015, 12:00 AM CDT
In force: 33 min
Issued by: NWS Memphis, TN
Area: Storm-based polygon

Counties Crittenden County, AR, Cross County, AR, Poinsett County, AR

The radar

The Memphis radar (KNQA), 64 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 04:30 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The watch it was issued in

The SPC watch in force over the same counties when this warning went out.

Issued	Product	Office	Lasted
Mar 31, 5:13 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Watch	SPC	7 hr

The nearest sounding before it

Little Rock, AR (KBYH), launched 00:00Z, 4.5 hours before the alert went out and 82 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 1687 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -22 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 1334 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 43 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 0 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 15 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: -0.1
Supercell composite: -1.1

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Memphis, TN wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Mar 31, 10:33 PM CDT, 54 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Mar 31, 10:33 PM CDT, 54 minutes before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1033 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.UPDATE...

UPDATE TO EXPAND AND EXTEND SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH #13.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

A FAVORABLE PATTERN FOR CONTINUED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG
A COUPLE OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. THE FIRST BOUNDARY STRETCHED FROM
LAUDERDALE COUNTY TENNESSEE SOUTHEAST INTO FAR NORTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI AS OF 0330Z AND THE SECOND FROM LAWRENCE COUNTY
ARKANSAS SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE MEMPHIS METRO. THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG THESE BOUNDARIES AND ARE BEING FED AND
ENERGIZED BY A WESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET NOSING INTO THE BOUNDARIES
AROUND 5KFT. A RESERVOIR OF MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR CHARACTERIZED
BY MUCAPES AROUND 1500 J/KG AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND
7.5 C/KM TO THE WEST IS FEEDING IN ON THE LOW LEVEL JET AND
ALLOWING FOR SOME STORMS TO REACH SEVERE LIMITS WITH LARGE HAIL.

IN ADDITION...THE LOW AND MID LEVEL SHEAR PATTERN IS FAVORABLE FOR
BACKBUILDING AND TRAINING STORMS WHICH WILL LIKELY LEAD TO AREAS
OF FLASH FLOODING ALONG THE SLOW MOVING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES.
PORTIONS OF THE AREA WILL BE CONSIDERED FOR A FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

UPDATED ZONES...GRIDS...AND HAZARDS WILL BE SENT SHORTLY.

JLH

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 354 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015/

DISCUSSION...
AN UNSTABLE GULF AIRMASS PREVAILED OVER THE MIDSOUTH THIS AFTERNOON.
GOES WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A DISTINCT MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE
ENTERING AR FROM OK WHICH HAS HELPED TO FURTHER DESTABILIZE THE
ATMOSPHERE. 12Z LZK SOUNDING SHOWED STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES
PRIOR SHORTWAVE ARRIVAL...NEARLY DRY ADIABATIC FROM 740MB UP TO
575MB. MINUS 20C LEVELS WERE IMPRESSIVELY LOW AT 19.3KFT. 18Z NAM
SOUNDINGS SHOWED DOWNSTREAM SURFACE- BASED CAPE VALUES OF 2000 TO
2500 J/KG OVER NORTH MS AT 21Z...WITH LIMITED CINH.

EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE OVER NORTH MS THROUGH THE EARLY
TO MIDDLE EVENING... BEFORE THE SHORTWAVE EXITS AND THE BOUNDARY
LAYER STABILIZES. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL LIKELY INCREASE OVER
NORTHEAST AR THIS EVENING...AS A MORE SUBTLE NORTHWEST FLOW
SHORTWAVE DROPS INTO SOUTHERN MO. THESE STORMS WOULD LIKELY BECOME
ROOTED IN AN ELEVATED UNSTABLE LAYER AND MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO
WEST TN AND NORTHEAST MS DURING THE LATE EVENING/EARLY OVERNIGHT.

WEDNESDAY MAY SEE STRONGER CONVECTIVE CAPPING UNDER SHORTWAVE
RIDGING ALOFT. ANY STORM THAT MANAGES TO BREAK THE CAP COULD TAP
INTO SOME IMPRESSIVE INSTABILITY...WITH 18Z/31 NAM SHOWING
3500-4000 J/KG OF SURFACED BASED CAPE OVER THE EASTERN AR AND
NORTHWEST MS DELTA.

UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL BEGIN FALLING THURSDAY...WITH THE
APPROACH OF A MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE THROUGH THE LOWER AND MIDDLE MS
RIVER VALLEY. THIS WILL WEAKEN CONVECTIVE INHIBITION FROM EAST
CENTRAL AR THROUGH WEST TN THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THURSDAY NIGHT WILL
SEE A SLOW MOVING SURFACE COLD FRONT DROPPING THROUGH THE OZARKS.
FRONTAL SPEED SHOULD INCREASE ON FRIDAY...WITH SYNOPTIC SCALE
HEIGHT FALLS MOVING INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE MS RIVER VALLEY.
PREFRONTAL AND POST FRONTAL SURFACE WINDS MAY APPROACH WIND
ADVISORY CRITERIA.

DRY MIDCONTINENTAL SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE INTO THE
MIDSOUTH SATURDAY...WITH LOW HUMIDITIES...SUNNY SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS. LOW LEVEL RETURN FLOW AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
DEPARTING SURFACE RIDGE MAY BRING SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY INTO THE
DELTA FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

PWB

&&

.AVIATION...

00Z TAF CYCLE

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE
TAF SITES THROUGH MID EVENING WITH PREVAILING VFR CIGS WITH
TEMPORARY REDUCTIONS OF CIGS/VSBYS IN CONVECTION. MOST OF THE
CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH PRIOR TO 01/05Z WITH MAINLY VFR CIGS.

LOWER LEVEL STRATUS AND FOG WITH MVFR CIGS/VSBYS SHOULD REDEVELOP
AT KMEM...KJBR...AND KTUP TOWARDS 01/09Z AND PERSIST THROUGH EARLY
WEDNESDAY. THIS MVFR CLOUD COVER SHOULD MIX OUT BY MID MORNING
WITH VFR CIGS EXPECTED INTO THE AFTERNOON.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD REDEVELOP BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
WITH REINTRODUCTION OF POTENTIAL MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN ANY
CONVECTION.

JLH

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

Hazardous weather outlook, Mar 31, 6:43 PM CDT, 4 hours 44 minutes before

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
643 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-
MSZ001>017-020>024-TNZ001>004-019>022-048>055-088>092-020145-
ALCORN-BENTON MS-BENTON TN-CALHOUN-CARROLL-CHESTER-CHICKASAW-CLAY-
COAHOMA-CRAIGHEAD-CRITTENDEN-CROCKETT-CROSS-DESOTO-DECATUR-
DUNKLIN-DYER-FAYETTE-GIBSON-GREENE-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-
HENDERSON-HENRY-ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-LAWRENCE-
LEE AR-LEE MS-MADISON-MARSHALL-MCNAIRY-MISSISSIPPI-MONROE-OBION-
PANOLA-PEMISCOT-PHILLIPS-POINSETT-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-
RANDOLPH-SHELBY-ST. FRANCIS-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TIPTON-
TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-UNION-WEAKLEY-YALOBUSHA-
643 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST ARKANSAS...
THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...NORTH MISSISSIPPI...AND WEST TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MID
SOUTH THIS EVENING. THE PRIMARY RISK WITH ANY SEVERE STORMS WILL
BE LARGE HAIL. VERY LARGE HAIL TO GOLFBALL SIZE OR GREATER WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS EARLY THIS EVENING. THE SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THERE WILL BE ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SEVERE WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND AGAIN ON THURSDAY. SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE
AREAWIDE WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT FRIDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED THIS EVENING ACROSS THE
MID SOUTH AND WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THIS WEEK. PLEASE REPORT ANY SEVERE WEATHER TO THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN MEMPHIS TENNESSEE VIA PHONE OR SOCIAL
MEDIA.

JLH

In the hours before

Local storm report, Mar 31, 10:34 PM CDT, 53 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1034 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1033 PM     HAIL             JERICHO                 35.29N 90.23W
03/31/2015  E0.88 INCH       CRITTENDEN         AR   TRAINED SPOTTER

            DIME AND PENNY SIZE HAIL NEAR EXIT 17 ON I-55 IN JERICHO.

&&

AJC

Special weather statement, Mar 31, 10:52 PM CDT, 35 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1052 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

MSZ002>005-014-TNZ089>091-010445-
UNION MS-BENTON MS-TIPPAH MS-MARSHALL MS-ALCORN MS-HARDEMAN TN-
MCNAIRY TN-FAYETTE TN-
1052 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEMPHIS HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL UNTIL 1145 PM CDT FOR...

NORTHEASTERN UNION COUNTY IN NORTHEASTERN MISSISSIPPI...
BENTON COUNTY IN NORTHEASTERN MISSISSIPPI...
TIPPAH COUNTY IN NORTHEASTERN MISSISSIPPI...
EAST CENTRAL MARSHALL COUNTY IN NORTHWESTERN MISSISSIPPI...
NORTHWESTERN ALCORN COUNTY IN NORTHEASTERN MISSISSIPPI...
SOUTHERN HARDEMAN COUNTY IN SOUTHWESTERN TENNESSEE...
SOUTHWESTERN MCNAIRY COUNTY IN SOUTHWESTERN TENNESSEE...
SOUTHEASTERN FAYETTE COUNTY IN SOUTHWESTERN TENNESSEE...

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING PEA SIZE HAIL OR LARGER WAS LOCATED
NEAR LAGRANGE AT 1046 PM CDT...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

PEOPLE IN NORTHEASTERN UNION...BENTON...TIPPAH...EAST CENTRAL
MARSHALL...NORTHWESTERN ALCORN...SOUTHERN HARDEMAN...SOUTHWESTERN
MCNAIRY AND SOUTHEASTERN FAYETTE COUNTIES SHOULD MONITOR THIS STORM
CLOSELY.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT FOR
NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND SOUTHWESTERN TENNESSEE.

LAT...LON 3484 8935 3531 8935 3515 8878 3459 8879
TIME...MOT...LOC 0346Z 327DEG 28KT 3513 8919

Local storm report, Mar 31, 10:54 PM CDT, 33 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1054 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1049 PM     HAIL             KEOWNVILLE              34.55N 88.92W
03/31/2015  E1.50 INCH       UNION              MS   PUBLIC

            PING PONG BALL TO GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL NEAR HIGHWAY 30.

&&

AJC

Local storm report, Mar 31, 11:11 PM CDT, 16 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1111 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1100 PM     FLASH FLOOD      3 N DOWNTOWN MEMPHIS    35.18N 90.05W
03/31/2015                   SHELBY             TN   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TWO+ INCHES OF WATER ON ROADWAYS.

&&

AJC

Local storm report, Mar 31, 11:14 PM CDT, 13 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1114 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1045 PM     HAIL             5 WNW TOMBIGBEE STATE P 34.26N 88.70W
03/31/2015  E0.75 INCH       LEE                MS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            PENNY SIZE HAIL ON VAN BUREN AVE. NEAR NORTH MISSISSIPPI
            MEDICAL CENTER.

&&

AJC

Local storm report, Mar 31, 11:18 PM CDT, 9 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1118 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1045 PM     HAIL             4 W TUPELO              34.26N 88.80W
03/31/2015  M1.00 INCH       LEE                MS   PUBLIC

            QUARTER SIZE HAIL IN WEST TUPELO.

&&

AJC

The office that day

Everything else NWS Memphis, TN issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Mar 31, 7:39 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MEG	Tishomingo	51 min
Mar 31, 8:25 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MEG	Tishomingo	50 min
Mar 31, 9:30 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MEG	Alcorn, Tishomingo	24 min
Mar 31, 10:04 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	MEG	Alcorn, Tishomingo	56 min
Mar 31, 10:41 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MEG	Lee, Pontotoc, Prentiss, Tippah, Union	64 min
Mar 31, 10:52 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	MEG	Benton, Tippah	53 min
Mar 31, 11:02 PM CDT	Flash Flood Watch	MEG	Alcorn, Benton, Chickasaw, DeSoto, Itawamba, Lafayette and 11 more	4 hr
Mar 31, 11:16 PM CDT	Flash Flood Warning	MEG	Lee, Prentiss, Tippah, Union	3 hr
Mar 31, 11:18 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MEG	Marshall	32 min
Mar 31, 11:33 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	MEG	Itawamba	42 min
Mar 31, 11:35 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MEG	Alcorn, Lee, Prentiss, Tippah, Union	25 min
Mar 31, 11:37 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MEG	Benton, Marshall, Tippah	23 min
Mar 31, 11:51 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MEG	Benton, Tippah	39 min
Mar 31, 11:53 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MEG	DeSoto, Marshall	52 min
Apr 1, 12:53 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MEG	Benton, Lafayette, Marshall, Tippah, Union	37 min
Apr 1, 1:15 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	MEG	Lee	30 min
Mar 31, 7:01 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MEG	Fayette, Hardeman, Haywood	44 min
Mar 31, 7:31 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MEG	Lauderdale	44 min
Mar 31, 7:36 PM CDT	Flash Flood Warning	MEG	Chester, Hardeman, McNairy	3 hr
Mar 31, 7:37 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MEG	Chester, Hardeman, McNairy	53 min
Mar 31, 7:47 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MEG	Lauderdale	43 min
Mar 31, 8:01 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MEG	Haywood, Lauderdale, Tipton	44 min
Mar 31, 8:18 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MEG	Dyer	42 min
Mar 31, 8:23 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MEG	Chester, Hardeman, McNairy	52 min
Mar 31, 8:39 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MEG	Fayette, Haywood, Lauderdale, Tipton	51 min
Mar 31, 8:49 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MEG	Crockett, Dyer, Haywood, Lauderdale	26 min
Mar 31, 8:55 PM CDT	Flash Flood Warning	MEG	Fayette, Hardeman, Haywood	3 hr
Mar 31, 9:22 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MEG	Fayette	38 min
Mar 31, 10:14 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MEG	Fayette	46 min
Mar 31, 10:28 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MEG	Shelby	62 min
Mar 31, 10:32 PM CDT	Flash Flood Warning	MEG	Hardeman, McNairy	3 hr
Mar 31, 11:11 PM CDT	Flash Flood Warning	MEG	Shelby, Tipton	3 hr
Apr 1, 11:37 AM CDT	River Flood Advisory	MEG	Lauderdale, Tipton	4 days
Apr 1, 4:22 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MEG	Fayette, Shelby, Tipton	38 min
Apr 1, 5:00 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MEG	Fayette, Haywood, Lauderdale, Shelby, Tipton	45 min
Mar 31, 9:07 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MEG	Clay, Greene, Mississippi	38 min
Mar 31, 9:33 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MEG	Cross, Poinsett	42 min
Mar 31, 9:58 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MEG	Crittenden, Cross, Poinsett	47 min
Mar 31, 10:01 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MEG	Cross, Poinsett	44 min
Mar 31, 10:23 PM CDT	Flash Flood Warning	MEG	Craighead, Crittenden, Cross, Poinsett	3 hr
Mar 31, 10:39 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MEG	Crittenden, Cross, Poinsett	51 min
Mar 31, 10:55 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MEG	Craighead, Poinsett	50 min
Mar 31, 11:54 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MEG	Crittenden, Cross, Poinsett	51 min
Apr 1, 12:43 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	MEG	Crittenden	32 min
Apr 1, 4:37 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MEG	Randolph	23 min
Apr 1, 4:55 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MEG	Randolph	16 min

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Arkansas, 2015 Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2015

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.