Severe Thunderstorm Warning 44, NWS Memphis, TN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1154 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...

UPDATED FOR THE 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1033 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015/

UPDATE...

UPDATE TO EXPAND AND EXTEND SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH #13.

DISCUSSION...

A FAVORABLE PATTERN FOR CONTINUED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG
A COUPLE OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. THE FIRST BOUNDARY STRETCHED FROM
LAUDERDALE COUNTY TENNESSEE SOUTHEAST INTO FAR NORTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI AS OF 0330Z AND THE SECOND FROM LAWRENCE COUNTY
ARKANSAS SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE MEMPHIS METRO. THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG THESE BOUNDARIES AND ARE BEING FED AND
ENERGIZED BY A WESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET NOSING INTO THE BOUNDARIES
AROUND 5KFT. A RESERVOIR OF MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR CHARACTERIZED
BY MUCAPES AROUND 1500 J/KG AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND
7.5 C/KM TO THE WEST IS FEEDING IN ON THE LOW LEVEL JET AND
ALLOWING FOR SOME STORMS TO REACH SEVERE LIMITS WITH LARGE HAIL.

IN ADDITION...THE LOW AND MID LEVEL SHEAR PATTERN IS FAVORABLE FOR
BACKBUILDING AND TRAINING STORMS WHICH WILL LIKELY LEAD TO AREAS
OF FLASH FLOODING ALONG THE SLOW MOVING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES.
PORTIONS OF THE AREA WILL BE CONSIDERED FOR A FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

UPDATED ZONES...GRIDS...AND HAZARDS WILL BE SENT SHORTLY.

JLH

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 354 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015/

DISCUSSION...
AN UNSTABLE GULF AIRMASS PREVAILED OVER THE MIDSOUTH THIS AFTERNOON.
GOES WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A DISTINCT MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE
ENTERING AR FROM OK WHICH HAS HELPED TO FURTHER DESTABILIZE THE
ATMOSPHERE. 12Z LZK SOUNDING SHOWED STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES
PRIOR SHORTWAVE ARRIVAL...NEARLY DRY ADIABATIC FROM 740MB UP TO
575MB. MINUS 20C LEVELS WERE IMPRESSIVELY LOW AT 19.3KFT. 18Z NAM
SOUNDINGS SHOWED DOWNSTREAM SURFACE- BASED CAPE VALUES OF 2000 TO
2500 J/KG OVER NORTH MS AT 21Z...WITH LIMITED CINH.

EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE OVER NORTH MS THROUGH THE EARLY
TO MIDDLE EVENING... BEFORE THE SHORTWAVE EXITS AND THE BOUNDARY
LAYER STABILIZES. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL LIKELY INCREASE OVER
NORTHEAST AR THIS EVENING...AS A MORE SUBTLE NORTHWEST FLOW
SHORTWAVE DROPS INTO SOUTHERN MO. THESE STORMS WOULD LIKELY BECOME
ROOTED IN AN ELEVATED UNSTABLE LAYER AND MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO
WEST TN AND NORTHEAST MS DURING THE LATE EVENING/EARLY OVERNIGHT.

WEDNESDAY MAY SEE STRONGER CONVECTIVE CAPPING UNDER SHORTWAVE
RIDGING ALOFT. ANY STORM THAT MANAGES TO BREAK THE CAP COULD TAP
INTO SOME IMPRESSIVE INSTABILITY...WITH 18Z/31 NAM SHOWING
3500-4000 J/KG OF SURFACED BASED CAPE OVER THE EASTERN AR AND
NORTHWEST MS DELTA.

UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL BEGIN FALLING THURSDAY...WITH THE
APPROACH OF A MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE THROUGH THE LOWER AND MIDDLE MS
RIVER VALLEY. THIS WILL WEAKEN CONVECTIVE INHIBITION FROM EAST
CENTRAL AR THROUGH WEST TN THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THURSDAY NIGHT WILL
SEE A SLOW MOVING SURFACE COLD FRONT DROPPING THROUGH THE OZARKS.
FRONTAL SPEED SHOULD INCREASE ON FRIDAY...WITH SYNOPTIC SCALE
HEIGHT FALLS MOVING INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE MS RIVER VALLEY.
PREFRONTAL AND POST FRONTAL SURFACE WINDS MAY APPROACH WIND
ADVISORY CRITERIA.

DRY MIDCONTINENTAL SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE INTO THE
MIDSOUTH SATURDAY...WITH LOW HUMIDITIES...SUNNY SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS. LOW LEVEL RETURN FLOW AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
DEPARTING SURFACE RIDGE MAY BRING SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY INTO THE
DELTA FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

PWB

&&

.AVIATION...

06Z TAF CYCLE

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT KMEM
AND KTUP WITH PREVAILING VFR CIGS WITH TEMPORARY REDUCTIONS OF
CIGS/VSBYS IN CONVECTION. MOST OF THE CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH
PRIOR TO 01/09Z WITH MAINLY VFR CIGS.

LOWER LEVEL STRATUS AND FOG WITH MVFR CIGS/VSBYS SHOULD REDEVELOP
AT KMEM...KJBR...AND KTUP TOWARDS SUNRISE AND PERSIST THROUGH
MID MORNING WEDNESDAY. THIS MVFR CLOUD COVER SHOULD MIX OUT BY
MID MORNING WITH VFR CIGS EXPECTED INTO THE AFTERNOON.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD REDEVELOP BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
WITH REINTRODUCTION OF POTENTIAL MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN ANY
CONVECTION. THIS CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING BEFORE
ENDING LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH A RETURN TO VFR
CIGS/VSBYS.

JLH

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR CRAIGHEAD-
     CRITTENDEN-CROSS-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-MISSISSIPPI-POINSETT-ST.
     FRANCIS.

MO...NONE.
MS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR ALCORN-BENTON MS-
     CHICKASAW-DESOTO-ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LEE MS-MARSHALL-MONROE-
     PANOLA-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-TATE-TIPPAH-TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-
     UNION.

TN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR CHESTER-FAYETTE-
     HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-LAUDERDALE-MADISON-MCNAIRY-SHELBY-
     TIPTON.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
643 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-
MSZ001>017-020>024-TNZ001>004-019>022-048>055-088>092-020145-
ALCORN-BENTON MS-BENTON TN-CALHOUN-CARROLL-CHESTER-CHICKASAW-CLAY-
COAHOMA-CRAIGHEAD-CRITTENDEN-CROCKETT-CROSS-DESOTO-DECATUR-
DUNKLIN-DYER-FAYETTE-GIBSON-GREENE-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-
HENDERSON-HENRY-ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-LAWRENCE-
LEE AR-LEE MS-MADISON-MARSHALL-MCNAIRY-MISSISSIPPI-MONROE-OBION-
PANOLA-PEMISCOT-PHILLIPS-POINSETT-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-
RANDOLPH-SHELBY-ST. FRANCIS-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TIPTON-
TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-UNION-WEAKLEY-YALOBUSHA-
643 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST ARKANSAS...
THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...NORTH MISSISSIPPI...AND WEST TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MID
SOUTH THIS EVENING. THE PRIMARY RISK WITH ANY SEVERE STORMS WILL
BE LARGE HAIL. VERY LARGE HAIL TO GOLFBALL SIZE OR GREATER WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS EARLY THIS EVENING. THE SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THERE WILL BE ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SEVERE WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND AGAIN ON THURSDAY. SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE
AREAWIDE WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT FRIDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED THIS EVENING ACROSS THE
MID SOUTH AND WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THIS WEEK. PLEASE REPORT ANY SEVERE WEATHER TO THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN MEMPHIS TENNESSEE VIA PHONE OR SOCIAL
MEDIA.

JLH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1118 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1045 PM     HAIL             4 W TUPELO              34.26N 88.80W
03/31/2015  M1.00 INCH       LEE                MS   PUBLIC

            QUARTER SIZE HAIL IN WEST TUPELO.

&&

AJC

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1133 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

MSZ006-009-016-017-024-010515-
LEE MS-ITAWAMBA MS-TISHOMINGO MS-PRENTISS MS-MONROE MS-
1133 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEMPHIS HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL UNTIL 1215 AM CDT FOR...

EAST CENTRAL LEE COUNTY IN NORTHEASTERN MISSISSIPPI...
ITAWAMBA COUNTY IN NORTHEASTERN MISSISSIPPI...
SOUTH CENTRAL TISHOMINGO COUNTY IN NORTHEASTERN MISSISSIPPI...
SOUTHEASTERN PRENTISS COUNTY IN NORTHEASTERN MISSISSIPPI...
NORTHEASTERN MONROE COUNTY IN NORTHEASTERN MISSISSIPPI...

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING PEA SIZE HAIL OR LARGER AND WINDS AT
LEAST 40 MPH WAS LOCATED NEAR PRATTS FRIENDSHIP AT 1125 PM CDT...
MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

PEOPLE IN EAST CENTRAL LEE...ITAWAMBA...SOUTH CENTRAL TISHOMINGO...
SOUTHEASTERN PRENTISS AND NORTHEASTERN MONROE COUNTIES SHOULD MONITOR
THIS STORM CLOSELY.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT FOR
NORTHEASTERN MISSISSIPPI.

LAT...LON 3393 8822 3420 8855 3450 8854 3447 8815
TIME...MOT...LOC 0425Z 285DEG 29KT 3445 8856

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1141 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0310 PM     HAIL             8 SW WATER VALLEY       34.08N 89.73W
03/31/2015  E1.00 INCH       YALOBUSHA          MS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            QUARTER SIZE HAIL IN WATER VALLEY.

0328 PM     HAIL             LAMBROOK                34.33N 90.97W
03/31/2015  E1.75 INCH       PHILLIPS           AR   PUBLIC

            GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL IN LAMBROOK, AR.

0350 PM     HAIL             6 W BRUCE               33.99N 89.45W
03/31/2015  E1.00 INCH       CALHOUN            MS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            QUARTER SIZE HAIL IN BRUCE.

0400 PM     HAIL             6 WSW CLARKSDALE        34.17N 90.67W
03/31/2015  E2.75 INCH       COAHOMA            MS   PUBLIC

            BASEBALL SIZE HAIL NEAR CLARKSDALE.

0431 PM     HAIL             WATER VALLEY            34.16N 89.63W
03/31/2015  E1.75 INCH       YALOBUSHA          MS   BROADCAST MEDIA

            GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL NEAR WATER VALLEY.

0530 PM     HAIL             NEW ALBANY              34.49N 89.02W
03/31/2015  E1.00 INCH       UNION              MS   PUBLIC

            DIME TO QUARTER SIZE HAIL IN NEW ALBANY.

0545 PM     HAIL             RECTOR                  36.26N 90.29W
03/31/2015  E1.00 INCH       CLAY               AR   PUBLIC

            DIME TO QUARTER SIZE HAIL NEAR RECTOR.

0605 PM     HAIL             12 NE NEW ALBANY        34.61N 88.87W
03/31/2015  E2.00 INCH       TIPPAH             MS   PUBLIC

            HEN EGG SIZE HAIL NORTHEAST OF NEW ALBANY

0610 PM     HAIL             BALDWYN                 34.50N 88.63W
03/31/2015  E1.75 INCH       LEE                MS   PUBLIC

            GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL NEAR DRY CREEK ROAD.

0618 PM     HAIL             4 SE SELMER             35.13N 88.54W
03/31/2015  E1.25 INCH       MCNAIRY            TN   TRAINED SPOTTER

            HALF DOLLAR SIZE HAIL IN SELMER

0625 PM     FLASH FLOOD      PICKWICK DAM            35.05N 88.25W
03/31/2015                   HARDIN             TN   PUBLIC

            WARNING THIS REPORT IS OLD AND NOT VALID. THIS REPORT WAS
            ENTERED IN ERROR.

0640 PM     HAIL             15 S SAVANNAH           35.01N 88.24W
03/31/2015  E0.75 INCH       HARDIN             TN   TRAINED SPOTTER

            PENNY SIZE HAIL FELL FOR ABOUT 5 MINUTES.

0810 PM     HAIL             KENNETT                 36.24N 90.05W
03/31/2015  E0.88 INCH       DUNKLIN            MO   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            MULTIPLE REPORTS OF NICKEL SIZE HAIL IN KENNETT.

0927 PM     TSTM WND DMG     HOLLYWOOD               36.05N 90.19W
03/31/2015                   DUNKLIN            MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

            LARGE TREE LIMBS DOWN IN HOLLYWOOD.

0945 PM     HAIL             2 SW HARRISBURG         35.54N 90.75W
03/31/2015  E0.88 INCH       POINSETT           AR   TRAINED SPOTTER

            NICKEL SIZE HAIL NEAR HARRISBURG.

1014 PM     HAIL             WEINER                  35.62N 90.90W
03/31/2015  E1.00 INCH       POINSETT           AR   PUBLIC

            QUARTER SIZE HAIL NEAR WEINER.

1015 PM     FLASH FLOOD      3 E WHITEHALL           34.76N 90.50W
03/31/2015                   LEE                AR   AMATEUR RADIO

            WIDESPREAD FLOODING NEAR WHITEHALL.

1015 PM     HAIL             1 N WHITEHALL           34.78N 90.55W
03/31/2015  E1.50 INCH       LEE                AR   TRAINED SPOTTER

            PING PONG SIZE HAIL NEAR WHITEHALL

1033 PM     HAIL             JERICHO                 35.29N 90.23W
03/31/2015  E0.88 INCH       CRITTENDEN         AR   TRAINED SPOTTER

            DIME AND PENNY SIZE HAIL NEAR EXIT 17 ON I-55 IN JERICHO.

1045 PM     HAIL             5 WNW TOMBIGBEE STATE P 34.26N 88.70W
03/31/2015  E0.75 INCH       LEE                MS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            PENNY SIZE HAIL ON VAN BUREN AVE. NEAR NORTH MISSISSIPPI
            MEDICAL CENTER.

1045 PM     HAIL             4 W TUPELO              34.26N 88.80W
03/31/2015  M1.00 INCH       LEE                MS   PUBLIC

            QUARTER SIZE HAIL IN WEST TUPELO.

1049 PM     HAIL             KEOWNVILLE              34.55N 88.92W
03/31/2015  E1.50 INCH       UNION              MS   PUBLIC

            PING PONG BALL TO GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL NEAR HIGHWAY 30.

1100 PM     FLASH FLOOD      3 N DOWNTOWN MEMPHIS    35.18N 90.05W
03/31/2015                   SHELBY             TN   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TWO+ INCHES OF WATER ON ROADWAYS.

&&

AJC

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