Severe Thunderstorm Warning 46, NWS Memphis, TN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
225 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...

EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...A WARM FRONT PUSHING SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD
THROUGH THE MIDSOUTH EXTENDED FROM NORTHEAST AR INTO NORTHEAST MS.
THE FRONT WAS EVIDENT IN THE SURFACE DEW POINTS RANGING FROM 32
DEGREES AT PARIS TN TO 62 DEGREES AT MEMPHIS. SURFACE BASED
INSTABILITY WAS INCREASING ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT...
RANGING FROM 1500 TO 2000 J/KG. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT THIS
AFTERNOON AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING MOVES TO THE EAST. AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORT WAVE WAS MOVING INTO SOUTHWEST MO AND NORTHWEST AR SPARKING
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHWEST MO ATTM.

AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH DURING THE
NEXT SEVEN DAYS WITH FREQUENT CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG WITH MOSTLY MILD TEMPERATURES...ALTHOUGH BRIEFLY COOLER
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

THE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TO OUR WEST WILL MOVE THROUGH THE MIDSOUTH
TONIGHT ENCOUNTERING THE MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR SOUTH OF THE WARM
FRONT. AS A RESULT...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR. INCREASED THE POPS SOME FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST IN MOST LOCATIONS. A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER
THREATS.

THURSDAY...THE MIDSOUTH WILL BE FULLY ENTRENCHED IN THE WARM SECTOR
WITH GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB TO AROUND
80 DEGREES. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR.

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE MIDSOUTH FROM THE NORTHWEST BY LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT...MOVING THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY. NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE FRONT. SOME
THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. A
WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE MIDSOUTH FRIDAY AS
STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS OCCUR AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT TURING TO
STRONG NORTHERLY BEHIND THE FRONT.

COLD AND DRIER HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD INTO THE AREA
FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES TO THE SOUTHEAST. LOWS
SATURDAY MORNING WILL RANGE FROM THE MIDDLE 30S TO MIDDLE 40S.
SUNNY AND COOLER WEATHER WILL OCCUR SATURDAY.

THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE TO THE EAST BY SUNDAY WITH A
THREAT OF SHOWERS SPREADING INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST
DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL OCCUR AS WARMER...MORE MOIST...AND MORE UNSTABLE AIR SPREADS
BACK ACROSS THE REGION. UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES IN WEST TO SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT WILL INTERACT WITH THE MORE MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR TO
CAUSE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. BY MID-WEEK...THE
MODELS ARE NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS PUSHING A COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE REGION WHILE THE ECMWF HAS THE REGION IN REMAINING IN THE
WARM SECTOR.

JCL

&&

.AVIATION...

18Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CURRENTLY AT LOCATIONS EXCEPT FOR JBR WHERE MVFR CIGS PERSIST.
CIGS AT JBR ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME VFR IN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. WARM
FRONT LIFTING THROUGH THE AREA TODAY...EXPECT THAT WE MAY SEE SOME
WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FORM NEAR THIS BOUNDARY
THIS AFTERNOON. TIMING AND COVERAGE ARE STILL HARD TO PIN DOWN SO
WENT WITH JUST VCTS AT ALL LOCATIONS EXCEPT FOR JBR WHERE SFC
BASED INSTABILITY IS SLIGHTLY MORE...AT JBR WENT TEMPO FOR -TSRA
BETWEEN 20-23Z...STARTED VCTS A TAD LATER AT MKL/TUP AND WENT SLIGHTLY
LONGER INTO THE EVENING HOURS. MORE ROBUST SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO
THE AREA OVERNIGHT AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE MOST OF THE ENERGY
WILL BE OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. DUE TO THIS BROUGHT A
LATER TEMPO GROUP FOR TSRA IN AT JBR...AND REINTRODUCED VCTS AT
MEM FOR 06Z LINE.

MAY SEE A SHORT PERIOD OF CIGS IN THE 1000-2000FT RANGE BTN 10-16Z
ON THURSDAY...WITH STILL INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE
SOUTH. BROUGHT AT LEAST A TEMPO IN FOR MVFR CIGS AT ALL TAF SITES
EXCEPT MKL IN THE MORNING. WINDS WILL ALSO PICK UP AS PRESSURE
GRADIENT INCREASES WITH LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING WEST OF THE AREA
ON THURSDAY. WINDS GUSTS INCREASE TO 20-30KT ACROSS THE AREA BY
18Z ON THURSDAY.

NGU

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
305 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015

ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-
MSZ001>017-020>024-TNZ001>004-019>022-048>055-088>092-022215-
ALCORN-BENTON MS-BENTON TN-CALHOUN-CARROLL-CHESTER-CHICKASAW-CLAY-
COAHOMA-CRAIGHEAD-CRITTENDEN-CROCKETT-CROSS-DESOTO-DECATUR-
DUNKLIN-DYER-FAYETTE-GIBSON-GREENE-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-
HENDERSON-HENRY-ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-LAWRENCE-
LEE AR-LEE MS-MADISON-MARSHALL-MCNAIRY-MISSISSIPPI-MONROE-OBION-
PANOLA-PEMISCOT-PHILLIPS-POINSETT-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-
RANDOLPH-SHELBY-ST. FRANCIS-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TIPTON-
TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-UNION-WEAKLEY-YALOBUSHA-
305 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST ARKANSAS...
THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...NORTH MISSISSIPPI...AND WEST TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS A SMALL
PORTION OF NORTHEAST ARKANSAS...GENERALLY ALONG AND WEST OF A
POCAHONTAS TO WALNUT RIDGE ARKANSAS LINE...THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT. A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXIST FOR MUCH
OF THE REMAINDER OF THE MIDSOUTH.

A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF THE MIDSOUTH. LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

SOME SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS AS THE MAIN
THREATS.

A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE MIDSOUTH FRIDAY.
STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT FRIDAY
TURNING TO STRONG NORTHERLY BEHIND THE FRONT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY EVENING.

JCL