Alert archive / Mississippi / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2015

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 14, NWS Memphis, TN

March 31, 2015Alcorn County, Tishomingo County, Mississippi; Hardin County, McNairy County, Tennessee

NWS Memphis, TN issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Mar 31, 2015, 6:54 PM CDT for Alcorn County, Tishomingo County, Mississippi; Hardin County, McNairy County, Tennessee. It was in force for 51 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The counties it named.

The facts

Issued: Mar 31, 2015, 6:54 PM CDT (23:54 UTC)
Expired: Mar 31, 2015, 7:45 PM CDT
In force: 51 min
Issued by: NWS Memphis, TN
Area: Storm-based polygon

Counties Alcorn County, MS, Tishomingo County, MS, Hardin County, TN, McNairy County, TN

The radar

The Columbus AFB radar (KGWX), 123 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 23:54 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The watch it was issued in

The SPC watch in force over the same counties when this warning went out.

Issued	Product	Office	Lasted
Mar 31, 1:45 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Watch	SPC	5 hr
Mar 31, 5:13 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Watch	SPC	7 hr

The nearest sounding before it

Little Rock, AR (KBYH), launched 12:00Z, 11.9 hours before the alert went out and 143 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 836 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -130 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 924 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 29 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 179 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 192 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.3
Supercell composite: 1.7

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Memphis, TN wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Mar 31, 5:36 PM CDT, 1 hour 18 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Mar 31, 5:36 PM CDT, 1 hour 18 minutes before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
536 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.UPDATE...

UPDATED TO ADD SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR EAST AND NORTHEAST
ARKANSAS...THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...AND WEST TENNESSEE THROUGH 10
PM CDT.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE UPSTREAM ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS AND WESTERN
MISSOURI WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING. THERE HAS
BEEN A RECENT UPSWING IN CONVECTION ACROSS NORTHEAST ARKANSAS INTO
NORTHWEST TENNESSEE. THE AIRMASS TO THE SOUTH OF THIS ONGOING
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS INCREASINGLY MORE UNSTABLE WITH LATEST
MESOANALYSIS INDICATING MLCAPE VALUES BETWEEN 1000-1500
J/KG...ALONG WITH MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 7.0
C/KM...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE INTERSTATE 40 CORRIDOR. AS
THUNDERSTORMS MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE EVENING THEY SHOULD
INTENSIFY AND MAY BECOME SEVERE. THE GREATEST SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT THIS EVENING WILL BE LARGE HAIL.

FURTHER SOUTH...THE LEAD SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST WITH
ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS STILL MOVING ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI. THE AIRMASS IN THESE AREAS REMAINS UNSTABLE WITH
LARGE HAIL A CONTINUED THREAT. INSTABILITY OVER THESE LOCATIONS
SHOULD WANE EARLY THIS EVENING WITH THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER
IN THESE LOCATIONS ENDING AROUND SUNSET.

IN BETWEEN ACROSS FAR NORTH MISSISSIPPI...AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM
THE SOUTHERN CONVECTION HAS LIFTED NORTH AND STABILIZED THE
AIRMASS WHERE THERE REMAINS NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH. NORTHERN
STORMS SHOULD PROGRESS SOUTHWARD INTO THESE LOCATIONS LATER THIS
EVENING BUT SHOULD BE IN THE PROCESS OF WEAKENING WITH LOSS OF
BETTER DAYTIME CONVECTION. THIS WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY THOUGH
THROUGH THE EVENING AND MAY BE ADDED BACK INTO THE NORTHERN WATCH
IF NEEDED.

UPDATED ZONES AND GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT ALONG WITH HAZARDS. PLAN TO
UPDATE THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK SHORTLY.

JLH

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 354 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015/

DISCUSSION...
AN UNSTABLE GULF AIRMASS PREVAILED OVER THE MIDSOUTH THIS AFTERNOON.
GOES WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A DISTINCT MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE
ENTERING AR FROM OK WHICH HAS HELPED TO FURTHER DESTABILIZE THE
ATMOSPHERE. 12Z LZK SOUNDING SHOWED STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES
PRIOR SHORTWAVE ARRIVAL...NEARLY DRY ADIABATIC FROM 740MB UP TO
575MB. MINUS 20C LEVELS WERE IMPRESSIVELY LOW AT 19.3KFT. 18Z NAM
SOUNDINGS SHOWED DOWNSTREAM SURFACE- BASED CAPE VALUES OF 2000 TO
2500 J/KG OVER NORTH MS AT 21Z...WITH LIMITED CINH.

EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE OVER NORTH MS THROUGH THE EARLY
TO MIDDLE EVENING... BEFORE THE SHORTWAVE EXITS AND THE BOUNDARY
LAYER STABILIZES. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL LIKELY INCREASE OVER
NORTHEAST AR THIS EVENING...AS A MORE SUBTLE NORTHWEST FLOW
SHORTWAVE DROPS INTO SOUTHERN MO. THESE STORMS WOULD LIKELY BECOME
ROOTED IN AN ELEVATED UNSTABLE LAYER AND MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO
WEST TN AND NORTHEAST MS DURING THE LATE EVENING/EARLY OVERNIGHT.

WEDNESDAY MAY SEE STRONGER CONVECTIVE CAPPING UNDER SHORTWAVE
RIDGING ALOFT. ANY STORM THAT MANAGES TO BREAK THE CAP COULD TAP
INTO SOME IMPRESSIVE INSTABILITY...WITH 18Z/31 NAM SHOWING
3500-4000 J/KG OF SURFACED BASED CAPE OVER THE EASTERN AR AND
NORTHWEST MS DELTA.

UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL BEGIN FALLING THURSDAY...WITH THE
APPROACH OF A MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE THROUGH THE LOWER AND MIDDLE MS
RIVER VALLEY. THIS WILL WEAKEN CONVECTIVE INHIBITION FROM EAST
CENTRAL AR THROUGH WEST TN THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THURSDAY NIGHT WILL
SEE A SLOW MOVING SURFACE COLD FRONT DROPPING THROUGH THE OZARKS.
FRONTAL SPEED SHOULD INCREASE ON FRIDAY...WITH SYNOPTIC SCALE
HEIGHT FALLS MOVING INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE MS RIVER VALLEY.
PREFRONTAL AND POST FRONTAL SURFACE WINDS MAY APPROACH WIND
ADVISORY CRITERIA.

DRY MIDCONTINENTAL SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE INTO THE
MIDSOUTH SATURDAY...WITH LOW HUMIDITIES...SUNNY SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS. LOW LEVEL RETURN FLOW AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
DEPARTING SURFACE RIDGE MAY BRING SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY INTO THE
DELTA FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

PWB

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON WILL GRADUALLY DETERIORATE TEMPORARILY
TO MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS LATE THIS AFTERNOON TOWARDS EARLY EVENING
AS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP ALONG A SURFACE BOUNDARY.
BEST CHANCES FOR SHRA/TSRA WILL BE AT MEM/TUP. LOW CLOUDS AND
PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP AT MEM/TUP LATE TONIGHT TOWARDS WEDNESDAY
MORNING.

CJC

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

Hazardous weather outlook, Mar 31, 6:43 PM CDT, 11 minutes before

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
643 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-
MSZ001>017-020>024-TNZ001>004-019>022-048>055-088>092-020145-
ALCORN-BENTON MS-BENTON TN-CALHOUN-CARROLL-CHESTER-CHICKASAW-CLAY-
COAHOMA-CRAIGHEAD-CRITTENDEN-CROCKETT-CROSS-DESOTO-DECATUR-
DUNKLIN-DYER-FAYETTE-GIBSON-GREENE-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-
HENDERSON-HENRY-ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-LAWRENCE-
LEE AR-LEE MS-MADISON-MARSHALL-MCNAIRY-MISSISSIPPI-MONROE-OBION-
PANOLA-PEMISCOT-PHILLIPS-POINSETT-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-
RANDOLPH-SHELBY-ST. FRANCIS-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TIPTON-
TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-UNION-WEAKLEY-YALOBUSHA-
643 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST ARKANSAS...
THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...NORTH MISSISSIPPI...AND WEST TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MID
SOUTH THIS EVENING. THE PRIMARY RISK WITH ANY SEVERE STORMS WILL
BE LARGE HAIL. VERY LARGE HAIL TO GOLFBALL SIZE OR GREATER WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS EARLY THIS EVENING. THE SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THERE WILL BE ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SEVERE WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND AGAIN ON THURSDAY. SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE
AREAWIDE WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT FRIDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED THIS EVENING ACROSS THE
MID SOUTH AND WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THIS WEEK. PLEASE REPORT ANY SEVERE WEATHER TO THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN MEMPHIS TENNESSEE VIA PHONE OR SOCIAL
MEDIA.

JLH

In the hours before

Local storm report, Mar 31, 5:42 PM CDT, 1 hour 12 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
542 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0310 PM     HAIL             8 SW WATER VALLEY       34.08N 89.73W
03/31/2015  E1.00 INCH       YALOBUSHA          MS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            QUARTER SIZE HAIL IN WATER VALLEY.

0328 PM     HAIL             LAMBROOK                34.33N 90.97W
03/31/2015  E1.75 INCH       PHILLIPS           AR   PUBLIC

            GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL IN LAMBROOK, AR.

0350 PM     HAIL             6 W BRUCE               33.99N 89.45W
03/31/2015  E1.00 INCH       CALHOUN            MS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            QUARTER SIZE HAIL IN BRUCE.

0400 PM     HAIL             6 WSW CLARKSDALE        34.17N 90.67W
03/31/2015  E2.75 INCH       COAHOMA            MS   PUBLIC

            BASEBALL SIZE HAIL NEAR CLARKSDALE.

0431 PM     HAIL             WATER VALLEY            34.16N 89.63W
03/31/2015  E1.75 INCH       YALOBUSHA          MS   BROADCAST MEDIA

            GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL NEAR WATER VALLEY.

0530 PM     HAIL             NEW ALBANY              34.49N 89.02W
03/31/2015  E1.00 INCH       UNION              MS   PUBLIC

            DIME TO QUARTER SIZE HAIL IN NEW ALBANY.

&&

AJC

Local storm report, Mar 31, 5:46 PM CDT, 1 hour 8 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
546 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0545 PM     HAIL             RECTOR                  36.26N 90.29W
03/31/2015  E1.00 INCH       CLAY               AR   PUBLIC

            DIME TO QUARTER SIZE HAIL NEAR RECTOR.

&&

AJC

Local storm report, Mar 31, 6:07 PM CDT, 47 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
607 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0605 PM     HAIL             12 NE NEW ALBANY        34.61N 88.87W
03/31/2015  E2.00 INCH       TIPPAH             MS   PUBLIC

            HEN EGG SIZE HAIL NORTHEAST OF NEW ALBANY

&&

AJC

Local storm report, Mar 31, 6:17 PM CDT, 37 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
617 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0610 PM     HAIL             BALDWYN                 34.50N 88.63W
03/31/2015  E1.75 INCH       LEE                MS   PUBLIC

            GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL NEAR DRY CREEK ROAD.

&&

AJC

Local storm report, Mar 31, 6:23 PM CDT, 31 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
623 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0618 PM     HAIL             4 SE SELMER             35.13N 88.54W
03/31/2015  E1.25 INCH       MCNAIRY            TN   TRAINED SPOTTER

            HALF DOLLAR SIZE HAIL IN SELMER

&&

AJC

Local storm report, Mar 31, 6:50 PM CDT, 4 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
650 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0640 PM     HAIL             15 S SAVANNAH           35.01N 88.24W
03/31/2015  E0.75 INCH       HARDIN             TN   TRAINED SPOTTER

            PENNY SIZE HAIL FELL FOR ABOUT 5 MINUTES.

&&

AJC

The office that day

Everything else NWS Memphis, TN issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Mar 31, 3:09 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	MEG	Yalobusha	36 min
Mar 31, 3:17 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MEG	Coahoma	43 min
Mar 31, 3:17 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MEG	Calhoun, Yalobusha	28 min
Mar 31, 3:22 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	MEG	Tishomingo	38 min
Mar 31, 3:46 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MEG	Calhoun, Yalobusha	12 min
Mar 31, 3:57 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MEG	Coahoma, Quitman, Tallahatchie	48 min
Mar 31, 4:28 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MEG	Calhoun, Chickasaw, Lafayette, Pontotoc	47 min
Mar 31, 5:17 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MEG	Union	43 min
Mar 31, 5:47 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MEG	Alcorn, Tishomingo	43 min
Mar 31, 5:55 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MEG	Lee, Prentiss, Tippah, Union	28 min
Mar 31, 6:09 PM CDT	Flash Flood Warning	MEG	Tishomingo	6 hr
Mar 31, 6:21 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MEG	Tishomingo	39 min
Mar 31, 11:39 AM CDT	River Flood Advisory	MEG	Dyer, Lake, Lauderdale	4 days
Mar 31, 5:55 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MEG	Dyer, Lake, Obion	50 min
Mar 31, 5:35 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MEG	Clay, Greene	40 min

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Mississippi, 2015 Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Tennessee, 2015 Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2015

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.