Alert archive / Mississippi / Severe Thunderstorm Watches in 2015
Severe Thunderstorm Watch 10
The Storm Prediction Center issued this severe thunderstorm watch at Mar 31, 2015, 1:45 PM CDT for 5 counties in Arkansas; 36 counties in Mississippi. It was in force for 5 hr.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Mar 31, 2015, 1:45 PM CDT (18:45 UTC)
- Expired
- Mar 31, 2015, 7:00 PM CDT
- In force
- 5 hr
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
- Largest hail expected
- 2 in
- Strongest gust expected
- 60 kt
All 41 counties
Arkansas County, AR, Desha County, AR, Jefferson County, AR, Lincoln County, AR, Phillips County, AR, Alcorn County, MS, Attala County, MS, Bolivar County, MS, Calhoun County, MS, Carroll County, MS, Chickasaw County, MS, Choctaw County, MS, Clay County, MS, Coahoma County, MS, Grenada County, MS, Holmes County, MS, Humphreys County, MS, Itawamba County, MS, Lafayette County, MS, Lee County, MS, Leflore County, MS, Lowndes County, MS, Monroe County, MS, Montgomery County, MS, Noxubee County, MS, Oktibbeha County, MS, Panola County, MS, Pontotoc County, MS, Prentiss County, MS, Quitman County, MS, Sunflower County, MS, Tallahatchie County, MS, Tate County, MS, Tishomingo County, MS, Tunica County, MS, Union County, MS, Washington County, MS, Webster County, MS, Winston County, MS, Yalobusha County, MS, Yazoo County, MS
The radar
The Memphis radar (KNQA), 161 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 18:46 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
What SPC expected
The probabilities SPC published with the watch, for the watch area over its life.
- Two or more tornadoes
- 10%
- One or more EF2 to EF5 tornadoes
- 2%
- Ten or more severe wind reports
- 50%
- One or more gusts of 65 knots or more
- 10%
- Ten or more severe hail reports
- 50%
- One or more hailstones of 2 inches or more
- 30%
- Six or more combined severe hail and wind reports
- 80%
Warnings issued inside it
22 tornado, severe thunderstorm and flash flood warnings for its counties while it was in force.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 31, 2:00 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | LZK | Arkansas, Jefferson | 45 min |
| Mar 31, 2:34 PM CDT | Tornado Warning | LZK | Arkansas, Desha, Jefferson, Lincoln | 26 min |
| Mar 31, 2:47 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | LZK | Arkansas, Desha, Jefferson | 43 min |
| Mar 31, 2:59 PM CDT | Tornado Warning | LZK | Arkansas, Desha | 46 min |
| Mar 31, 3:09 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | JAN | Bolivar | 81 min |
| Mar 31, 3:17 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | MEG | Phillips | 43 min |
| Mar 31, 3:17 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | MEG | Calhoun, Yalobusha | 28 min |
| Mar 31, 3:46 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | MEG | Calhoun, Yalobusha | 12 min |
| Mar 31, 3:53 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | JAN | Bolivar, Sunflower, Washington | 67 min |
| Mar 31, 3:57 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | MEG | Coahoma, Quitman, Tallahatchie | 48 min |
| Mar 31, 4:00 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | JAN | Bolivar, Sunflower | 60 min |
| Mar 31, 4:21 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | JAN | Lowndes | 20 min |
| Mar 31, 4:28 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | MEG | Calhoun, Chickasaw, Lafayette, Pontotoc | 47 min |
| Mar 31, 4:48 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | JAN | Humphreys, Leflore, Sunflower, Washington | 57 min |
| Mar 31, 5:17 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | MEG | Union | 43 min |
| Mar 31, 5:34 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | JAN | Holmes, Humphreys | 56 min |
| Mar 31, 5:47 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | MEG | Alcorn, Tishomingo | 43 min |
| Mar 31, 5:55 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | MEG | Lee, Prentiss, Tippah, Union | 28 min |
| Mar 31, 6:09 PM CDT | Flash Flood Warning | MEG | Tishomingo | 6 hr |
| Mar 31, 6:19 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | JAN | Holmes, Yazoo | 56 min |
| Mar 31, 6:21 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | MEG | Tishomingo | 39 min |
| Mar 31, 6:54 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | MEG | Alcorn, Tishomingo | 51 min |
Discussions around it
SPC mesoscale discussions over the same counties from four hours before the watch to its end.
The nearest sounding before it
Little Rock, AR (KBYH), launched 12:00Z, 6.8 hours before the alert went out and 109 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 836 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -130 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 924 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 29 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 179 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 192 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.3
- Supercell composite
- 1.7
SPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 31, 12:41 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Arkansas, Desha, Grant, Jefferson, Lee, Lincoln and 5 more | 94 min |
| Mar 31, 2:25 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Baxter, Clay, Cleburne, Conway, Craighead, Crittenden and 21 more | 2 hr |
| Mar 31, 3:57 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Crawford, Franklin, Sebastian | 6 hr |
| Mar 31, 4:32 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Phillips | 58 min |
| Mar 31, 5:13 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Clay, Cleburne, Craighead, Crittenden, Cross, Faulkner and 13 more | 7 hr |
Nearby
Severe Thunderstorm Watches in Mississippi, 2015Severe Thunderstorm Watches in Arkansas, 2015Every severe thunderstorm watch in 2015
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.