Severe Thunderstorm Warning 33, NWS Little Rock, AR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1248 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.AVIATION...
SHORT TERM GUIDANCE SHOWS ANOTHER ROUND OF TSRA DEVELOPING THIS
AFTERNOON...AND HAVE CHANGED TIMING IN TAFS. DID INCLUDE MVFR CIGS
OVERNIGHT AS SOUTHERLY FLOW BRING MOISTURE NORTH.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 258 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT

ALL SHORT TERM MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE THE UNSETTLED PATTERN
CONTINUING PRETTY MUCH UNABATED AS A SERIES OF WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES MOVE THROUGH THE PREVAILING FLOW. WHILE ALL SHORT
TERM MODELS AGREE IN THE SYNOPTIC SCALE...BOTH THE PLACEMENT AND
TIMING OF THE INDIVIDUAL WAVES VARIES FROM MODEL TO MODEL. THE
BEST COURSE OF ACTION SEEMS TO BE A BLEND OF FORECAST SOLUTION
WITH A GENERAL BROAD BRUSH APPROACH TO THE POPS.

BROAD NORTHWEST FLOW REMAINS OVER THE AREA BUT WILL SLOWLY PUSH OFF
TO THE EAST AS WEAK RIDGING CRESTS OVER THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY.
WEAK PIECES OF ENERGY EMBEDDED IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM WILL KEEP ON
GOING CHANCE TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE
PERIOD. BEST CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION WILL ACTUALLY OCCUR ON FRIDAY
AS CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER STATES AND
DRAGS A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION.

MODELS AGREEMENT ON HOW QUICKLY THIS FRONT MAKES IT INTO ARKANSAS IS
NOT EXTREMELY HIGH BUT DO HAVE PRECIP CHANCES CREEPING INTO THE
30-40 PERCENT RANGE ACROSS THE NORTH FRIDAY AND SPREADING SOUTH TO
ACCOUNT FOR INCOMING FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

EVEN WITH THE PERIODIC RAIN...ACTUAL QPF WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT WITH
MOST AREAS SEEING LESS THAN A HALF INCH TOTAL THROUGH OUT THE
PERIOD. THERE COULD BE LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN ANY THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY. CONTINUED SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGH THURSDAY WITH READINGS RETURNING TO MORE NORMAL
LEVELS FRIDAY.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING OVER THE REGION AT THE START OF THE
LONG TERM...WITH DRIER AND COOLER CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON SAT. THIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE STATE FOR SUN...WITH SRLY FLOW
RETURNING. INITIALLY...DEEP MOISTURE LEVELS WILL REMAIN
LIMITED...THEN GRADUALLY INCREASE FOR SUN NIGHT INTO MON AS A WARM
FRONT LIFTS NORTH. HAVE INCREASED POPS FOR SUN NIGHT...THOUGH HAVE
NOT GONE TOO HIGH AT THIS POINT DUE TO CONTINUED UNCERTAINTY IN WHEN
THE DEEP MOISTURE RETURN COMMENCES.

BY THE END OF THE FORECAST...THE WARM FRONT WILL BE NORTH OF THE
STATE...WITH AR REMAINING IN THE WARM SECTOR. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPS
WARM. DO THINK SOME CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL BE NEEDED ON MON...BUT NO
MAJOR SYSTEMS WILL BE MOVING OVERHEAD EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS MAY
CHANGE IN THE COMING DAYS HOWEVER...BUT ONLY MENTION SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS AT THIS TIME.
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

AVIATION...58

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
312 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-011000-
ARKANSAS-BAXTER-BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-
CONWAY-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-
INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-LONOKE-
MARION-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-
PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-WHITE-
WOODRUFF-YELL-
312 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR A LARGE PART OF ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS
COULD BECOME STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE...BUT THE THREAT FOR
WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER WILL REMAIN LOW THROUGH TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THE CHANCES FOR SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST FOR WEDNESDAY...SOME OF WHICH COULD
BECOME STRONG. HOWEVER...WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
ANTICIPATED THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.

A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHEAST TOWARDS ARKANSAS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
INCREASING ACROSS THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE STATE. SOME SEVERE
STORMS COULD BE SEEN ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS FRONT LATE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN SECTIONS OF THE AREA. THE MAIN
THREATS EXPECTED WITH ANY SEVERE STORM WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS.

THIS FRONT WILL DROP SLOWLY SOUTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MUCH
OF FRIDAY...WITH THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SPREADING FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST. THE THREAT FOR SOME SEVERE
WEATHER WILL ALSO DROP FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST OVER A LARGER
PORTION OF THE AREA. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST OF THE STATE
BY FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO
START OFF THE WEEKEND. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
RETURN TO THE FORECAST FOR LATE THIS COMING WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

&&

VISIT NWS LITTLE ROCK ON THE WEB. GO TO HTTP://WEATHER.GOV AND
CLICK ON CENTRAL ARKANSAS.

62

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
104 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0101 PM     HAIL             WOODSON                 34.53N 92.21W
03/31/2015  E1.75 INCH       PULASKI            AR   AMATEUR RADIO

0103 PM     HAIL             OTTER CREEK             34.67N 92.43W
03/31/2015  E0.75 INCH       PULASKI            AR   PUBLIC

&&

58

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
117 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0110 PM     HAIL             4 NE REDFIELD           34.48N 92.13W
03/31/2015  E2.00 INCH       JEFFERSON          AR   AMATEUR RADIO

&&

58

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
203 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0135 PM     HAIL             ALTHEIMER               34.32N 91.85W
03/31/2015  E1.00 INCH       JEFFERSON          AR   COUNTY OFFICIAL

&&

58

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
210 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0155 PM     HAIL             PINE BLUFF ARSENAL      34.33N 92.10W
03/31/2015  E1.00 INCH       JEFFERSON          AR   COUNTY OFFICIAL

&&

58

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
234 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0220 PM     HAIL             4 NNW REYDELL           34.20N 91.61W
03/31/2015  E2.50 INCH       JEFFERSON          AR   AMATEUR RADIO

&&

58

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
235 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0234 PM     FUNNEL CLOUD     7 N GOULD               34.09N 91.56W
03/31/2015                   LINCOLN            AR   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

58