Severe Thunderstorm Warning 28, NWS Little Rock, AR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
550 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...

UPDATED TO INCLUDE THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW...

&&

.AVIATION...

WARM FRONT HAS LIFTED NORTH OF MOST TERMINALS THIS MORNING...WITH
INCREASED CLOUD COVER SEEN. HOWEVER...MOST SITES HAVE REMAINED VFR
THIS MORNING...WITH JUST SOME PATCHY FOG SO FAR. DO THINK SOME
SITES COULD DROP BRIEFLY TO MVFR LEVELS WITH SOME PATCHY FOG...DZ
OR LOW CIGS. LATER TODAY...THERE WILL BE LESS OPPORTUNITY FOR MVFR
OR LOWER CONDITIONS OUTSIDE OF ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY...WHICH
WILL BE POSSIBLE AT SOME SITES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ONLY
HAVE VC AND PROB30 GROUPS AS TIMING AND LOCATION OF CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY IS A BIT UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME. DO THINK SOME ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED ACTIVITY COULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HRS...AND SOME MVFR CONDITIONS COULD BE SEEN AT THE NRN TERMINALS
WITH SOME PATCHY FOG.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 258 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT

ALL SHORT TERM MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE THE UNSETTLED PATTERN
CONTINUING PRETTY MUCH UNABATED AS A SERIES OF WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES MOVE THROUGH THE PREVAILING FLOW. WHILE ALL SHORT
TERM MODELS AGREE IN THE SYNOPTIC SCALE...BOTH THE PLACEMENT AND
TIMING OF THE INDIVIDUAL WAVES VARIES FROM MODEL TO MODEL. THE
BEST COURSE OF ACTION SEEMS TO BE A BLEND OF FORECAST SOLUTION
WITH A GENERAL BROAD BRUSH APPROACH TO THE POPS.

BROAD NORTHWEST FLOW REMAINS OVER THE AREA BUT WILL SLOWLY PUSH OFF
TO THE EAST AS WEAK RIDGING CRESTS OVER THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY.
WEAK PIECES OF ENERGY EMBEDDED IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM WILL KEEP ON
GOING CHANCE TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE
PERIOD. BEST CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION WILL ACTUALLY OCCUR ON FRIDAY
AS CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER STATES AND
DRAGS A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION.

MODELS AGREEMENT ON HOW QUICKLY THIS FRONT MAKES IT INTO ARKANSAS IS
NOT EXTREMELY HIGH BUT DO HAVE PRECIP CHANCES CREEPING INTO THE
30-40 PERCENT RANGE ACROSS THE NORTH FRIDAY AND SPREADING SOUTH TO
ACCOUNT FOR INCOMING FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

EVEN WITH THE PERIODIC RAIN...ACTUAL QPF WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT WITH
MOST AREAS SEEING LESS THAN A HALF INCH TOTAL THROUGH OUT THE
PERIOD. THERE COULD BE LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN ANY THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY. CONTINUED SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGH THURSDAY WITH READINGS RETURNING TO MORE NORMAL
LEVELS FRIDAY.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING OVER THE REGION AT THE START OF THE
LONG TERM...WITH DRIER AND COOLER CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON SAT. THIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE STATE FOR SUN...WITH SRLY FLOW
RETURNING. INITIALLY...DEEP MOISTURE LEVELS WILL REMAIN
LIMITED...THEN GRADUALLY INCREASE FOR SUN NIGHT INTO MON AS A WARM
FRONT LIFTS NORTH. HAVE INCREASED POPS FOR SUN NIGHT...THOUGH HAVE
NOT GONE TOO HIGH AT THIS POINT DUE TO CONTINUED UNCERTAINTY IN WHEN
THE DEEP MOISTURE RETURN COMMENCES.

BY THE END OF THE FORECAST...THE WARM FRONT WILL BE NORTH OF THE
STATE...WITH AR REMAINING IN THE WARM SECTOR. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPS
WARM. DO THINK SOME CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL BE NEEDED ON MON...BUT NO
MAJOR SYSTEMS WILL BE MOVING OVERHEAD EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS MAY
CHANGE IN THE COMING DAYS HOWEVER...BUT ONLY MENTION SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     78  54  75  61 /  20  20  30  30
CAMDEN AR         78  60  80  62 /  30  20  30  20
HARRISON AR       76  53  74  60 /  20  10  30  20
HOT SPRINGS AR    77  59  77  62 /  30  20  30  30
LITTLE ROCK   AR  77  59  78  62 /  30  20  30  30
MONTICELLO AR     76  60  79  63 /  30  20  40  30
MOUNT IDA AR      77  59  76  62 /  30  20  30  20
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  78  53  75  60 /  20  10  30  30
NEWPORT AR        78  54  75  62 /  20  20  30  30
PINE BLUFF AR     76  59  79  62 /  30  20  30  30
RUSSELLVILLE AR   79  58  77  61 /  20  20  30  30
SEARCY AR         78  56  75  61 /  20  20  30  30
STUTTGART AR      76  58  77  61 /  30  20  30  30
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

AVIATION...62

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
312 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-011000-
ARKANSAS-BAXTER-BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-
CONWAY-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-
INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-LONOKE-
MARION-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-
PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-WHITE-
WOODRUFF-YELL-
312 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR A LARGE PART OF ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS
COULD BECOME STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE...BUT THE THREAT FOR
WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER WILL REMAIN LOW THROUGH TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THE CHANCES FOR SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST FOR WEDNESDAY...SOME OF WHICH COULD
BECOME STRONG. HOWEVER...WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
ANTICIPATED THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.

A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHEAST TOWARDS ARKANSAS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
INCREASING ACROSS THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE STATE. SOME SEVERE
STORMS COULD BE SEEN ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS FRONT LATE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN SECTIONS OF THE AREA. THE MAIN
THREATS EXPECTED WITH ANY SEVERE STORM WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS.

THIS FRONT WILL DROP SLOWLY SOUTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MUCH
OF FRIDAY...WITH THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SPREADING FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST. THE THREAT FOR SOME SEVERE
WEATHER WILL ALSO DROP FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST OVER A LARGER
PORTION OF THE AREA. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST OF THE STATE
BY FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO
START OFF THE WEEKEND. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
RETURN TO THE FORECAST FOR LATE THIS COMING WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

&&

VISIT NWS LITTLE ROCK ON THE WEB. GO TO HTTP://WEATHER.GOV AND
CLICK ON CENTRAL ARKANSAS.

62

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1126 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

ARZ044-045-311710-
LONOKE AR-PULASKI AR-
1126 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL PULASKI AND CENTRAL
LONOKE COUNTIES UNTIL 1215 PM CDT...

AT 1124 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR DOWNTOWN LITTLE ROCK...MOVING EAST AT 30
MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF PENNIES AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  NORTH LITTLE ROCK...  LONOKE...
  DOWNTOWN LITTLE ROCK...                     SWEET HOME...
  SISEMORE...           SCOTT...              PROTHRO JUNCTION...
  METO...               MCCREANOR...          LEVY...
  LITTLE ROCK AIRPORT...                      STATE FAIRGROUNDS...
  ARGENTA...            WILLOW BEACH...       TOLTEC...
  SEATON...             ROSE CITY...          QUAPAW QUARTER...

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 30 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 136 AND 142.

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 40 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 151 AND 166.

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 440 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 1 AND 11.

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 630 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 1 AND 2.

IF THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES YOUR AREA...TAKE SHELTER IN A
STURDY BUILDING.

LAT...LON 3479 9177 3459 9179 3470 9232 3480 9229
TIME...MOT...LOC 1626Z 278DEG 27KT 3474 9225

46

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