Severe Thunderstorm Warning 3, NWS Memphis, TN

176 
WWUS54 KMEG 312038
SVSMEG

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
338 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

ARC107-MSC027-312100-
/O.CON.KMEG.SV.W.0003.000000T0000Z-150331T2100Z/
PHILLIPS AR-COAHOMA MS-
338 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 400 PM CDT
FOR SOUTHERN PHILLIPS AND COAHOMA COUNTIES...

AT 337 PM CDT...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING LARGE DAMAGING HAIL UP TO GOLF BALL SIZE. THIS
STORM WAS LOCATED OVER ELAINE...MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
CLARKSDALE...ELAINE...JONESTOWN...FRIARS POINT...KINGS...SHERARD...
LAKE VIEW...COAHOMA...LYON...MOSBY SPUR...MODOC...DELTA...LURAND...
WABASH...RATIO...HOPSON...WESTOVER...CATRON...LUNDELL AND CLOVER
HILL.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...
DEADLY LIGHTNING AND VERY HEAVY RAIN. FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN
INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF YOUR HOME OR BUSINESS. HEAVY
RAINS FLOOD ROADS QUICKLY SO DO NOT DRIVE INTO AREAS WHERE WATER
COVERS THE ROAD.

INTENSE THUNDERSTORM LINES CAN OCCASIONALLY PRODUCE BRIEF TORNADOES
AND WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT WIND DAMAGE. ALTHOUGH NOT IMMEDIATELY
LIKELY...FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST
FLOOR OF YOUR HOME OR BUSINESS. THIS STORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO CAUSE
SERIOUS INJURY AND SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE TO PROPERTY.

&&

LAT...LON 3419 9104 3422 9103 3425 9103 3426 9106
      3428 9108 3430 9107 3429 9106 3431 9106
      3432 9105 3432 9106 3434 9105 3434 9100
      3445 9095 3442 9045 3410 9047 3417 9103
      3418 9106
TIME...MOT...LOC 2037Z 290DEG 29KT 3430 9085 

$$
JPM3

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1222 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.UPDATE...
UPDATED TO ADD 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 624 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015/

DISCUSSION...

UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 327 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015/

SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR THIS MORNING ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S.
CURRENTLY A WARM FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA THROUGH
CENTRAL ARKANSAS AND INTO CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI. THIS FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTH TODAY AND WEAKEN. SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT
LATER THIS MORNING AND INTO THIS AFTERNOON. SPC HAS INCLUDED MUCH
OF THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR
SEVERE WEATHER TODAY WITH HAIL BEING THE MAIN THREAT. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE WARM THIS AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S. BY TONIGHT A
BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION BRINGING MORE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILDER OVERNIGHT
THAN THE LAST FEW EVENINGS WITH LOWS WEDNESDAY MORNING MAINLY IN
THE 50S.

BY WEDNESDAY...THE BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL START RETREATING BACK
EAST AS A WARM FRONT SO THERE WILL STILL BE A CHANCE OF SOME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON THE WARM
SIDE WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. THE WARM FRONT SHOULD
EXIT THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT SO THERE WILL STILL BE A
SMALL CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MILD AS
WELL WITH LOWS THURSDAY MORNING IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

BY THURSDAY...ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY MOVING
INTO THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER THAN
WEDNESDAY WITH SOME LOCATIONS APPROACHING 80 DEGREES. BY THURSDAY
NIGHT THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE CLOSER TO THE REGION AND REACH
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AND SOUTHEAST MISSOURI BY FRIDAY MORNING. THIS
WILL MEAN A BETTER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. SPC HAS A SLIGHT RISK
FOR MUCH OF ARKANSAS...THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL AND EXTREME WEST
TENNESSEE. THE MAIN THREAT WOULD BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON FRIDAY WITH MORE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED. THERE WILL BE A THREAT OF
SEVERE WEATHER ON FRIDAY MAINLY OVER WEST TENNESSEE AND NORTH
MISSISSIPPI WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS AS THE MAIN
THREATS. AS THE COLD FRONT EXITS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT THE
THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH. COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL
START TO MOVE INTO THE REGION WITH LOWS SATURDAY MORNING MAINLY IN
THE 40S.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION BY SATURDAY KEEPING
THINGS DRY WITH TEMPERATURES PLEASANT FOR THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY WITH SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING OVER THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

ARS

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON WILL GRADUALLY DETERIORATE TEMPORARILY
TO MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS LATE THIS AFTERNOON TOWARDS EARLY EVENING
AS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP ALONG A SURFACE BOUNDARY.
BEST CHANCES FOR SHRA/TSRA WILL BE AT MEM/TUP. LOW CLOUDS AND
PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP AT MEM/TUP LATE TONIGHT TOWARDS WEDNESDAY
MORNING.

CJC

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
251 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-
MSZ001>017-020>024-TNZ001>004-019>022-048>055-088>092-012200-
ALCORN-BENTON MS-BENTON TN-CALHOUN-CARROLL-CHESTER-CHICKASAW-CLAY-
COAHOMA-CRAIGHEAD-CRITTENDEN-CROCKETT-CROSS-DESOTO-DECATUR-
DUNKLIN-DYER-FAYETTE-GIBSON-GREENE-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-
HENDERSON-HENRY-ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-LAWRENCE-
LEE AR-LEE MS-MADISON-MARSHALL-MCNAIRY-MISSISSIPPI-MONROE-OBION-
PANOLA-PEMISCOT-PHILLIPS-POINSETT-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-
RANDOLPH-SHELBY-ST. FRANCIS-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TIPTON-
TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-UNION-WEAKLEY-YALOBUSHA-
251 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST ARKANSAS...
THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...NORTH MISSISSIPPI...AND WEST TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING...
MAINLY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM WALNUT RIDGE ARKANSAS TO JACKSON AND
SAVANNAH TENNESSEE. LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT...WITH DAMAGING WINDS A SECONDARY THREAT.

NORTH OF THE SLIGHT RISK AREA...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL
POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS EVENING OVER FAR NORTHEASTERN ARKANSAS...
THROUGH THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL AND NORTHWEST TENNESSEE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE
WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT FRIDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEED AT ANY TIME THROUGH FRIDAY.

PWB

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
309 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

MSZ012-013-021-022-312045-
CALHOUN MS-PANOLA MS-YALOBUSHA MS-LAFAYETTE MS-
309 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEMPHIS HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL UNTIL 345 PM CDT FOR...

AT 308 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING PEA SIZE HAIL OR
LARGER NEAR VELMA...OR NEAR WATER VALLEY...MOVING EAST AT 55 MPH.

PEOPLE IN NORTHWESTERN CALHOUN...SOUTHEASTERN PANOLA...NORTHERN
YALOBUSHA AND SOUTHWESTERN LAFAYETTE COUNTIES SHOULD MONITOR THIS
STORM CLOSELY.

LAT...LON 3405 8991 3428 8977 3420 8941 3399 8951
TIME...MOT...LOC 2008Z 273DEG 47KT 3411 8964