Alert archive / Arkansas / Severe Thunderstorm Watches in 2014

Severe Thunderstorm Watch 532

October 13, 201433 counties in Arkansas; 9 counties in Missouri; 18 counties in Oklahoma

The Storm Prediction Center issued this severe thunderstorm watch at Oct 13, 2014, 12:55 AM CDT for 33 counties in Arkansas; 9 counties in Missouri; 18 counties in Oklahoma. It was in force for 7 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Oct 13, 2014, 12:55 AM CDT (05:55 UTC)
Expired
Oct 13, 2014, 8:00 AM CDT
In force
7 hr
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
Largest hail expected
1 in
Strongest gust expected
60 kt
All 60 counties

Baxter County, AR, Benton County, AR, Boone County, AR, Carroll County, AR, Clark County, AR, Cleburne County, AR, Conway County, AR, Crawford County, AR, Dallas County, AR, Faulkner County, AR, Franklin County, AR, Garland County, AR, Grant County, AR, Hot Spring County, AR, Johnson County, AR, Logan County, AR, Madison County, AR, Marion County, AR, Montgomery County, AR, Newton County, AR, Perry County, AR, Pike County, AR, Polk County, AR, Pope County, AR, Pulaski County, AR, Saline County, AR, Scott County, AR, Searcy County, AR, Sebastian County, AR, Stone County, AR, Van Buren County, AR, Washington County, AR, Yell County, AR, Barry County, MO, Christian County, MO, Douglas County, MO, Lawrence County, MO, McDonald County, MO, Newton County, MO, Ozark County, MO, Stone County, MO, Taney County, MO, Adair County, OK, Cherokee County, OK, Choctaw County, OK, Craig County, OK, Delaware County, OK, Haskell County, OK, Latimer County, OK, LeFlore County, OK, Mayes County, OK, McIntosh County, OK, Muskogee County, OK, Nowata County, OK, Ottawa County, OK, Pittsburg County, OK, Pushmataha County, OK, Rogers County, OK, Sequoyah County, OK, Wagoner County, OK

The radar

The Western Arkansas radar (KSRX), 3 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 05:57 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What SPC expected

The probabilities SPC published with the watch, for the watch area over its life.

Two or more tornadoes
20%
One or more EF2 to EF5 tornadoes
5%
Ten or more severe wind reports
50%
One or more gusts of 65 knots or more
10%
Ten or more severe hail reports
10%
One or more hailstones of 2 inches or more
10%
Six or more combined severe hail and wind reports
80%

Warnings issued inside it

13 tornado, severe thunderstorm and flash flood warnings for its counties while it was in force.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Oct 13, 2:08 AM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningTSAMayes, Rogers, Wagoner32 min
Oct 13, 2:32 AM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningTSAAdair, Haskell, LeFlore, Sequoyah43 min
Oct 13, 3:37 AM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningTSAChoctaw, Pushmataha23 min
Oct 13, 5:10 AM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLZKMontgomery, Pike, Polk, Scott, Yell35 min
Oct 13, 5:40 AM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLZKLogan, Scott, Yell35 min
Oct 13, 6:08 AM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLZKClark, Montgomery, Pike, Polk52 min
Oct 13, 6:21 AM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLZKLogan, Montgomery, Perry, Pope, Saline, Scott and 1 more39 min
Oct 13, 6:29 AM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLZKBoone, Johnson, Logan, Newton, Pope, Searcy46 min
Oct 13, 6:56 AM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLZKClark, Garland, Hot Spring, Montgomery, Perry, Pike and 1 more34 min
Oct 13, 7:02 AM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLZKConway, Garland, Johnson, Logan, Perry, Pope and 2 more43 min
Oct 13, 7:21 AM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLZKBaxter, Boone, Marion, Newton, Pope, Searcy and 1 more39 min
Oct 13, 7:44 AM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLZKCleburne, Conway, Faulkner, Perry, Van Buren46 min
Oct 13, 7:53 AM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLZKCalhoun, Clark, Dallas, Ouachita37 min

Discussions around it

SPC mesoscale discussions over the same counties from four hours before the watch to its end.

The nearest sounding before it

Springfield, MO (KSGF), launched 00:00Z, 5.9 hours before the alert went out and 187 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Springfield, MO at 00:00Z on 2014-10-13Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 0 joules per kilogram.LCL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Springfield, MO at 00:00Z on 2014-10-13The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 202 square meters per square second.19395878Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL
823 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
47 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
202 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
232 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Oct 12, 8:04 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCArkansas, Ashley, Bradley, Calhoun, Chicot, Cleveland and 13 more86 min
Oct 13, 12:00 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBenton, Crawford, Sebastian, Washington90 min
Oct 13, 1:59 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBaxter, Benton, Boone, Carroll, Clark, Cleburne and 28 more91 min
Oct 13, 2:43 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCColumbia, Hempstead, Howard, Lafayette, Little River, Miller and 2 more92 min
Oct 13, 3:22 AM CDTTornado WatchSPCColumbia, Hempstead, Howard, Lafayette, Little River, Miller and 2 more8 hr
Oct 13, 6:34 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCArkansas, Ashley, Bradley, Calhoun, Chicot, Clark and 36 more86 min
Oct 13, 6:56 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBaxter, Boone, Clark, Cleburne, Conway, Dallas and 17 more64 min
Oct 13, 7:08 AM CDTTornado WatchSPCArkansas, Ashley, Baxter, Bradley, Calhoun, Chicot and 44 more7 hr
Oct 13, 10:20 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCArkansas, Ashley, Bradley, Chicot, Clay, Craighead and 22 more115 min
Oct 13, 11:52 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCChicot, Clay, Craighead, Crittenden, Cross, Desha and 6 more113 min
Oct 13, 12:57 PM CDTTornado WatchSPCChicot, Clay, Crittenden, Mississippi7 hr
Oct 13, 8:05 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBollinger, Butler, Cape Girardeau, Carter, Howell, Iron and 13 more115 min
Oct 13, 10:29 AM CDTTornado WatchSPCBollinger, Butler, Cape Girardeau, Carter, Franklin, Iron and 16 more8 hr
Oct 13, 11:59 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBollinger, Butler, Madison, Perry, Sainte Genevieve, Saint Francois and 2 more61 min
Oct 13, 1:33 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBollinger, Cape Girardeau, Mississippi, New Madrid, Perry, Scott and 1 more57 min
Oct 12, 7:59 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCAtoka, Bryan, Canadian, Carter, Cleveland, Coal and 29 more7 hr
Oct 12, 9:47 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAlfalfa, Blaine, Caddo, Canadian, Comanche, Cotton and 14 more58 min

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Watches in Arkansas, 2014Severe Thunderstorm Watches in Oklahoma, 2014Severe Thunderstorm Watches in Missouri, 2014Every severe thunderstorm watch in 2014

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.