Severe Thunderstorm Warning 385, NWS Little Rock, AR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
257 AM CDT MON OCT 13 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY
SURFACE ANALYSIS THIS MORNING IS PRETTY MESSY...WITH SEVERAL LOW
PRESSURE CENTERS OVER TEXAS/OKLAHOMA NEAR AN APPROACHING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...AND SMALLER MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES FROM NORTH TEXAS WELL
INTO ARKANSAS. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...THERE IS PLENTY OF DIFFLUENCE
IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND MID SOUTH...WITH THE NOSE OF THE 50
KNOT JET APPROACHING AT 500 MB. ALL THESE INGREDIENTS COMBINED
WILL MAKE FOR SOME ACTIVE WEATHER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAS DEVELOPED ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY...WITH SCATTERED
INDIVIDUAL CELLS DEVELOPING OUT AHEAD OF THIS IN NORTHERN AND
SOUTHERN ARKANSAS...AS WELL AS NORTH TEXAS. THE SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TODAY AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES EAST.

SOME STORMS WILL BE SEVERE...WITH DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE PRIMARY
THREAT. DECENT LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT A HAIL THREAT AS
WELL. AND...WITH A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET...AND WINDS BACKING
TO THE SOUTHEAST...THERE WILL BE A RISK OF TORNADOES...ESPECIALLY
WITH CELLS OUT AHEAD OF THE MAIN AREA.

WITH HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER...THE STORMS WILL BE EFFICIENT
RAINFALL PRODUCERS...AND IT WILL NOT BE UNREASONABLE TO EXPECT A
QUICK ONE TO THREE INCHES IN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. FOR THIS REASON...
AND THE FACT THAT MUCH OF NORTHWEST...AS WELL AS SOUTH CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS HAVE RECEIVED SEVERAL INCHES OF RAIN IN THE
LAST FEW DAYS...HAVE EXTENDED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH TO THE
REMAINDER OF THE AREA. ALSO...HAVE ADJUSTED THE EXPIRATION TIME TO
00Z TO ACCOUNT FOR THE THREAT CONTINUING IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING ACROSS THE EAST.

WINDS WILL BE AN ISSUE TODAY...WITH A STRONG GRADIENT SURROUNDING
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ATTENDANT FRONT. WINDS OF 15 TO 25
MPH WILL BE COMMON IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...AND AREAS WEST OF
THE I-30/US 67 CORRIDORS. OVER THE PRAIRIES OF EASTERN ARKANSAS...
WINDS WILL BE A BIT STRONGER...WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH...
AND HIGHER GUSTS. OVER THIS AREA...WILL KEEP THE WIND ADVISORY...
WITH THE LAKE WIND ADVISORY REMAINING OVER THE NORTHWEST TWO-
THIRDS.

THE ACTUAL FRONT ITSELF WILL LIKELY MOVE INTO EASTERN ARKANSAS BY
THIS EVENING...CLEARING THE AREA LATE. HOWEVER...WITH A CLOSED
UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN ARKANSAS/SOUTHERN MISSOURI
BEHIND THE SYSTEM...THERE WILL BE DECENT WRAPAROUND MOISTURE
MOVING IN. CONSEQUENTLY...CONTINUED RAIN CHANCES INTO TUESDAY TO ACCOUNT
FOR THIS.

UPPER RIDGING WILL TRY TO  BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION BY LATE
WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...THIS WILL CONTRACT ENOUGH TO BRING A WEAK
FRONT TOWARD THE REGION...WHICH WILL AFFECT THE AREA JUST BEYOND
THE END OF THE SHORT TERM.
&&

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY. MOISTURE WILL REMAIN
LIMITED...WITH ONLY AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND A WIND SHIFT NOTED.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 70S.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     73  54  61  49 / 100  50  30  10
CAMDEN AR         78  54  71  51 / 100  30  20  10
HARRISON AR       73  50  59  47 / 100  40  40  10
HOT SPRINGS AR    75  54  68  49 / 100  30  20  10
LITTLE ROCK   AR  78  55  66  50 / 100  30  30  10
MONTICELLO AR     77  54  69  51 / 100  40  20  10
MOUNT IDA AR      72  52  68  45 / 100  30  20  10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  73  52  60  48 / 100  50  40  10
NEWPORT AR        74  55  62  50 / 100  50  30  10
PINE BLUFF AR     79  54  68  50 / 100  40  20  10
RUSSELLVILLE AR   71  54  64  49 / 100  40  30  10
SEARCY AR         71  54  64  49 / 100  40  30  10
STUTTGART AR      77  54  66  52 / 100  40  30  10
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CDT THIS
EVENING FOR BAXTER-BOONE-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CONWAY-FAULKNER-FULTON-
GARLAND-HOT SPRING-INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JOHNSON-LOGAN-MARION-
MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-
SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-YELL.

FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR ARKANSAS-BAXTER-BOONE-
BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-CONWAY-DALLAS-DESHA-
DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-
JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-LONOKE-MARION-MONROE-
MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-PRAIRIE-PULASKI-
SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-WHITE-WOODRUFF-YELL.

WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR ARKANSAS-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLEVELAND-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-GRANT-
JACKSON-JEFFERSON-LINCOLN-LONOKE-MONROE-OUACHITA-PRAIRIE-WHITE-
WOODRUFF.
&&

SHORT TERM...57 / LONG TERM...58

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
500 AM CDT MON OCT 13 2014

ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-141000-
ARKANSAS-BAXTER-BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-
CONWAY-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-
INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-LONOKE-
MARION-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-
PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-WHITE-
WOODRUFF-YELL-
500 AM CDT MON OCT 13 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR A LARGE PART OF ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE STATE TODAY. AHEAD OF THIS
FRONT...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP INTO A SQUALL LINE.
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 70 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE STATE.

IF ANY STORMS DEVELOP OUT AHEAD OF THE MAIN LINE...THERE IS A RISK
FOR TORNADOES TODAY. THE MAIN AREA OF CONCERN WILL BE IN AREAS EAST
OF LITTLE ROCK.

ALONG WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE WEATHER...VERY HEAVY RAIN WILL
BE POSSIBLE. THIS HEAVY RAINFALL WILL FALL IN AREAS THAT RECEIVED
HEAVY RAINFALL LATE LAST WEEK...AND ANY ADDITIONAL RAINFALL COULD
PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT TODAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

STRONG WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY TUESDAY...AS COOLER AIR
MOVES INTO THE STATE. NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 20 MPH WILL BE COMMON.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE NEEDED TODAY.

&&

VISIT NWS LITTLE ROCK ON THE WEB. GO TO HTTP://WEATHER.GOV AND
CLICK ON CENTRAL ARKANSAS.

58

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
547 AM CDT MON OCT 13 2014

ARZ003-012-021-131130-
BOONE AR-JOHNSON AR-NEWTON AR-
547 AM CDT MON OCT 13 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR BOONE...NEWTON AND NORTHERN
JOHNSON COUNTIES UNTIL 630 AM CDT...

AT 542 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 5 MILES WEST OF
BERRYVILLE TO 10 MILES WEST OF LOST VALLEY SP TO 11 MILES WEST OF
DEVILS KNOB...AND MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF NICKELS AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  LOST VALLEY SP...     JASPER...             HARRISON...
  WALNUT...             VALLEY SPRINGS...
  UPPER BUFFALO WILDERNESS AREA...            SELF...
  ROBERSON HOLLOW...    RED BANK...           PRUITT...
  PIERCETOWN...         OMAHA...              OLVEY...
  MYRTLE...             ERBIE...              DEVILS KNOB...
  CARVER...             CAPPS...

THESE STORMS MAY INTENSIFY...AND A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN
EFFECT FOR THIS AREA. BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND TV
STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 3614 9295 3572 9317 3573 9370 3577 9370
      3577 9352 3588 9353 3600 9345 3607 9345
      3608 9349 3612 9349 3613 9331 3649 9330
      3651 9302
TIME...MOT...LOC 1047Z 249DEG 34KT 3638 9359 3608 9350
          3579 9353

58

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
619 AM CDT MON OCT 13 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0510 AM     TSTM WND DMG     ROCKY                   34.59N 94.37W
10/13/2014                   POLK               AR   CO-OP OBSERVER

            TREES AND POWER LINES WERE BLOWN DOWN.

&&

57

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
646 AM CDT MON OCT 13 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0512 AM     TSTM WND DMG     HATFIELD                34.49N 94.38W
10/13/2014                   POLK               AR   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREES WERE BLOWN DOWN.

&&

57

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
655 AM CDT MON OCT 13 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0640 AM     TSTM WND GST     6 S JASPER              35.92N 93.19W
10/13/2014  E60 MPH          NEWTON             AR   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

226