Severe Thunderstorm Warning 154, NWS Paducah, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
254 PM CDT Mon Oct 13 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Wednesday night)
Issued at 255 PM CDT MON OCT 13 2014

Very busy with watches, warnings, etc so will make this rather
brief.

Strong cold front will continue to push eastward across our CWA
through the rest of the afternoon and evening, hopefully exiting the
eastern portions of our CWA after midnight.

With the eastward progress of the front, a QLCS line of strong to
severe thunderstorms will continue ahead of the boundary with some
storms becoming capable of producing damaging winds and a few
tornadoes. Locally heavy rainfall will also accompany the stronger
storms.

In the wake of this system, small chances of showers and patches of
drizzle will continue through the remainder of the overnight hours
tonight.

Chances for showers will continue Tuesday, Tuesday night, and
Wednesday with the slow approach and passage of an upper low over
our CWA. Rain chances will finally begin to taper off from the west
Wednesday night in the wake of the upper low.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 255 PM CDT MON OCT 13 2014

On Thursday...the upper level low will finally be departing the Ohio
Valley. Some lingering clouds and even a few showers are
possible...especially in southwest Indiana and the Pennyrile region
of west Kentucky. Temperatures should begin to recover toward more
seasonal levels.

On Friday...mainly sunny skies and seasonably warm temps are
expected as a weak ridge passes overhead.

Over the weekend into early next week...upper level troughing will
gradually settle into the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley region. This
will push a cold front /possibly followed by a secondary cold front/
across our region. The primary cold front appears to be dry...but a
secondary front could bring some showers late in the weekend into
early next week. Temperatures will gradually cool down. The 12z gfs
mos looks too warm. Will trend toward the cooler 00z ecmwf
mos...especially early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1227 PM CDT MON OCT 13 2014

Numerous showers and thunderstorms will cross the TAF sites from
west to east throughout the first few hours of the period. Some
storms may be severe and will produce locally heavy rainfall. MVFR
cigs/vsbys will prevail will the passage of the storms, however
brief IFR conditions may occur. In the wake of the area of
preciptation, IFR cigs and/or vsbys and patchy drizzle will
prevail through the overnight hours. Conditions should become MVFR
toward the end of the period. Southerly winds at 12-14 knots
gusting to 20-22 knots will drop off to AOB 10 knots overnight,
then pick back up from the south southwest at 10-12 knots with
gusts up to 20 knots after 15-16Z.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...JP
LONG TERM/FIRE WX...MY

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
120 PM CDT MON OCT 13 2014

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-
100-107>112-114-141830-
JEFFERSON-WAYNE IL-EDWARDS-WABASH-PERRY IL-FRANKLIN-HAMILTON-
WHITE-JACKSON-WILLIAMSON-SALINE-GALLATIN-UNION IL-JOHNSON-POPE-
HARDIN-ALEXANDER-PULASKI-MASSAC-GIBSON-PIKE-POSEY-VANDERBURGH-
WARRICK-SPENCER-FULTON-HICKMAN-CARLISLE-BALLARD-MCCRACKEN-GRAVES-
LIVINGSTON-MARSHALL-CALLOWAY-CRITTENDEN-LYON-TRIGG-CALDWELL-
UNION KY-WEBSTER-HOPKINS-CHRISTIAN-HENDERSON-DAVIESS-MCLEAN-
MUHLENBERG-TODD-PERRY MO-BOLLINGER-CAPE GIRARDEAU-WAYNE MO-CARTER-
RIPLEY-BUTLER-STODDARD-SCOTT-MISSISSIPPI-NEW MADRID-
120 PM CDT MON OCT 13 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS...SOUTHWEST INDIANA...WESTERN KENTUCKY AND SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

A VIGOROUS LINE OF STORMS WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING REACHING SOUTHWEST INDIANA SOUTHWARD TO THE
SOUTHERN PENNYRILE BETWEEN 6 AND 9 PM. OTHER STORMS MAY DEVELOP
AHEAD OF THIS LINE AS WELL.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE A STRONG POSSIBILITY THROUGH THIS EVENING.
THE MAIN CONCERNS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND TORNADOES WITHIN THE
MAIN LINE OF STORMS. LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE BUT MAINLY WITH
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE LINE.

LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS
...HOWEVER WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN IS LIKELY WITH THE LINE OF
STORMS THROUGH TONIGHT. TOTAL RAINFALL THROUGH TONIGHT WILL
GENERALLY RANGE FROM ONE AND A HALF TO 3 INCHES. THE GREATEST
AMOUNTS ARE LIKELY ACROSS SOUTHWEST INDIANA AND THE LAKES AND
PENNYRILE REGIONS OF WEST KENTUCKY. SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING ISSUES
WILL BE POSSIBLE...BUT WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT PROBLEMS ARE NOT
ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THE BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL MAY LINGER INTO THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS TUESDAY OVER SOUTHWEST INDIANA AND THE PENNYRILE
REGION OF WEST KENTUCKY. A FEW MINOR FLOOD PROBLEMS CANNOT BE
RULED OUT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NEEDED THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY EVENING
ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION, AND LIKELY THEREAFTER OVER SOUTHWEST
INDIANA SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE PENNYRILE REGION OF WESTERN KENTUCKY.
SEVERE STORM CHANCES WILL DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH
TONIGHT.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
345 PM CDT MON OCT 13 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0305 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 SE AVA                37.86N 89.46W
10/13/2014                   JACKSON            IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

            DOWNED TREES AND 4 SNAPPED POWER LINES AT GROUND LEVEL
            AND ARE ACROSS HOOTOWL LANE.

&&

SMITTY

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
356 PM CDT MON OCT 13 2014

ILZ075-076-081>083-085-086-132145-
FRANKLIN IL-HAMILTON IL-JEFFERSON IL-SALINE IL-WAYNE IL-WHITE
IL-WILLIAMSON IL-
356 PM CDT MON OCT 13 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR HAMILTON...EASTERN FRANKLIN...
WESTERN WAYNE AND SOUTHEASTERN JEFFERSON COUNTIES IN SOUTH CENTRAL
ILLINOIS...AND NORTHWESTERN WHITE COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS...AND
EASTERN WILLIAMSON AND SALINE COUNTIES IN SOUTHERN ILLINOIS UNTIL 445
PM CDT...

AT 355 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 6 MILES EAST OF
BENTON TO 5 MILES SOUTHWEST OF CARRIERS MILLS...AND MOVING NORTH AT
60 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS...ALONG WITH
HEAVY RAIN.

LOCATIONS THAT MAY BE IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  HARRISBURG...MCLEANSBORO...FAIRFIELD...CARRIERS MILLS...GALATIA...
  WAYNE CITY...ENFIELD...CISNE...EWING...MACEDONIA...MUDDY...BELLE
  RIVE...RALEIGH...DAHLGREN...BROUGHTON...KEENES...BELLE PRAIRIE
  CITY...SIMS...JOHNSONVILLE AND SPRINGERTON.

THESE STORMS MAY INTENSIFY....AND A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR
THIS AREA. BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND TV STATIONS...AS
WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS....FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION AND
POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

TORRENTIAL RAIN...WHICH MAY FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS DITCHES AND
UNDERPASSES...IS ALSO LIKELY. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE ON A FLOODED
ROADWAY.

LAT...LON 3861 8843 3808 8828 3760 8857 3760 8875
      3802 8890 3861 8854 3861 8847
TIME...MOT...LOC 2056Z 202DEG 53KT 3804 8881 3764 8867

SMITH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
359 PM CDT MON OCT 13 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0332 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 W WEST PADUCAH        37.08N 88.78W
10/13/2014                   MCCRACKEN          KY   TRAINED SPOTTER

            DOWNED POWER LINES ALONG WOODVILLE ROAD IN WESTERN
            MCCRACKEN COUNTY.

&&

SMITTY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
406 PM CDT MON OCT 13 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0340 PM     TSTM WND DMG     PADUCAH                 37.07N 88.64W
10/13/2014                   MCCRACKEN          KY   NEWSPAPER

            REPORT OF ROOF DAMAGE AT INTERSECTION OF 12TH STREET AND
            MADISON. SEMI-TRACTOR DAMAGED AT EXIT 4. DOWNED POWER
            LINES AND OUTAGES REPORTED ALONG LOVELACEVILLE ROAD.

&&

SMITTY

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
407 PM CDT MON OCT 13 2014

ILZ090-091-094-KYZ005>015-132145-
CALDWELL KY-CALLOWAY KY-CRITTENDEN KY-GRAVES KY-HARDIN IL-LIVINGSTON
KY-LYON KY-MARSHALL KY-MASSAC IL-MCCRACKEN KY-POPE IL-TRIGG KY-UNION
KY-WEBSTER KY-
407 PM CDT MON OCT 13 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR HARDIN...POPE...AND MASSAC
COUNTIES IN SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...WEBSTER AND UNION COUNTIES IN
NORTHWEST KENTUCKY...AND GRAVES...CRITTENDEN...CALLOWAY...
CALDWELL...TRIGG...MARSHALL...MCCRACKEN...LYON AND LIVINGSTON
COUNTIES IN WESTERN KENTUCKY UNTIL 445 PM CDT...

AT 400 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 7 MILES SOUTH OF
CARRIERS MILLS ILLINOIS...TO 7 MILES SOUTHWEST OF BURNA TO 7 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF LYNNVILLE KENTUCKY...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS THAT MAY BE IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  BENTON...CALVERT CITY...MURRAY...EDDYVILLE...MARION...LAND
BETWEEN   THE LAKES AREA...PRINCETON...GOLCONDA...BURNA...
SALEM...CANTON...CRESWELL...AND HARRIS GROVE.

THESE STORMS MAY INTENSIFY....AND A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR
THIS AREA. BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND TV STATIONS...AS
WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS....FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION AND
POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 3715 8856 3758 8871 3758 8795 3746 8789
      3669 8788 3666 8793 3667 8806 3661 8804
      3649 8830 3650 8855
TIME...MOT...LOC 2103Z 240DEG 32KT 3760 8863 3720 8845
          3652 8844

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
423 PM CDT MON OCT 13 2014

ILZ076-132130-
WAYNE IL-
423 PM CDT MON OCT 13 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN WAYNE COUNTY IN
SOUTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS UNTIL 430 PM CDT...

AT 420 PM CDT...STORM SPOTTERS REPORTED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR
HELM...OR 13 MILES SOUTHEAST OF SALEM...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 55 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM...ALONG WITH
HEAVY RAIN.

LOCATIONS THAT MAY BE IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF EXTREME NORTHWESTERN WAYNE COUNTY.

AT 418 PM CDT...A STORM SPOTTER IN EXTREME NORTHEAST JEFFERSON
COUNTY REPORTED WIND GUSTS TO 46 MPH.

IF THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES YOUR AREA...TAKE SHELTER IN A
STURDY BUILDING.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY....AND A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THIS
AREA. BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS
LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS....FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE
WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

TORRENTIAL RAIN...WHICH MAY FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS DITCHES AND
UNDERPASSES...IS ALSO LIKELY. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE ON A FLOODED
ROADWAY.

LAT...LON 3861 8853 3851 8862 3845 8867 3842 8869
      3848 8871 3861 8871 3861 8869 3861 8854
TIME...MOT...LOC 2122Z 213DEG 49KT 3855 8872