Severe Thunderstorm Warning 159, NWS Paducah, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
254 PM CDT Mon Oct 13 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Wednesday night)
Issued at 255 PM CDT MON OCT 13 2014

Very busy with watches, warnings, etc so will make this rather
brief.

Strong cold front will continue to push eastward across our CWA
through the rest of the afternoon and evening, hopefully exiting the
eastern portions of our CWA after midnight.

With the eastward progress of the front, a QLCS line of strong to
severe thunderstorms will continue ahead of the boundary with some
storms becoming capable of producing damaging winds and a few
tornadoes. Locally heavy rainfall will also accompany the stronger
storms.

In the wake of this system, small chances of showers and patches of
drizzle will continue through the remainder of the overnight hours
tonight.

Chances for showers will continue Tuesday, Tuesday night, and
Wednesday with the slow approach and passage of an upper low over
our CWA. Rain chances will finally begin to taper off from the west
Wednesday night in the wake of the upper low.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 255 PM CDT MON OCT 13 2014

On Thursday...the upper level low will finally be departing the Ohio
Valley. Some lingering clouds and even a few showers are
possible...especially in southwest Indiana and the Pennyrile region
of west Kentucky. Temperatures should begin to recover toward more
seasonal levels.

On Friday...mainly sunny skies and seasonably warm temps are
expected as a weak ridge passes overhead.

Over the weekend into early next week...upper level troughing will
gradually settle into the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley region. This
will push a cold front /possibly followed by a secondary cold front/
across our region. The primary cold front appears to be dry...but a
secondary front could bring some showers late in the weekend into
early next week. Temperatures will gradually cool down. The 12z gfs
mos looks too warm. Will trend toward the cooler 00z ecmwf
mos...especially early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1227 PM CDT MON OCT 13 2014

Numerous showers and thunderstorms will cross the TAF sites from
west to east throughout the first few hours of the period. Some
storms may be severe and will produce locally heavy rainfall. MVFR
cigs/vsbys will prevail will the passage of the storms, however
brief IFR conditions may occur. In the wake of the area of
preciptation, IFR cigs and/or vsbys and patchy drizzle will
prevail through the overnight hours. Conditions should become MVFR
toward the end of the period. Southerly winds at 12-14 knots
gusting to 20-22 knots will drop off to AOB 10 knots overnight,
then pick back up from the south southwest at 10-12 knots with
gusts up to 20 knots after 15-16Z.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...JP
LONG TERM/FIRE WX...MY

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
120 PM CDT MON OCT 13 2014

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-
100-107>112-114-141830-
JEFFERSON-WAYNE IL-EDWARDS-WABASH-PERRY IL-FRANKLIN-HAMILTON-
WHITE-JACKSON-WILLIAMSON-SALINE-GALLATIN-UNION IL-JOHNSON-POPE-
HARDIN-ALEXANDER-PULASKI-MASSAC-GIBSON-PIKE-POSEY-VANDERBURGH-
WARRICK-SPENCER-FULTON-HICKMAN-CARLISLE-BALLARD-MCCRACKEN-GRAVES-
LIVINGSTON-MARSHALL-CALLOWAY-CRITTENDEN-LYON-TRIGG-CALDWELL-
UNION KY-WEBSTER-HOPKINS-CHRISTIAN-HENDERSON-DAVIESS-MCLEAN-
MUHLENBERG-TODD-PERRY MO-BOLLINGER-CAPE GIRARDEAU-WAYNE MO-CARTER-
RIPLEY-BUTLER-STODDARD-SCOTT-MISSISSIPPI-NEW MADRID-
120 PM CDT MON OCT 13 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS...SOUTHWEST INDIANA...WESTERN KENTUCKY AND SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

A VIGOROUS LINE OF STORMS WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING REACHING SOUTHWEST INDIANA SOUTHWARD TO THE
SOUTHERN PENNYRILE BETWEEN 6 AND 9 PM. OTHER STORMS MAY DEVELOP
AHEAD OF THIS LINE AS WELL.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE A STRONG POSSIBILITY THROUGH THIS EVENING.
THE MAIN CONCERNS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND TORNADOES WITHIN THE
MAIN LINE OF STORMS. LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE BUT MAINLY WITH
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE LINE.

LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS
...HOWEVER WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN IS LIKELY WITH THE LINE OF
STORMS THROUGH TONIGHT. TOTAL RAINFALL THROUGH TONIGHT WILL
GENERALLY RANGE FROM ONE AND A HALF TO 3 INCHES. THE GREATEST
AMOUNTS ARE LIKELY ACROSS SOUTHWEST INDIANA AND THE LAKES AND
PENNYRILE REGIONS OF WEST KENTUCKY. SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING ISSUES
WILL BE POSSIBLE...BUT WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT PROBLEMS ARE NOT
ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THE BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL MAY LINGER INTO THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS TUESDAY OVER SOUTHWEST INDIANA AND THE PENNYRILE
REGION OF WEST KENTUCKY. A FEW MINOR FLOOD PROBLEMS CANNOT BE
RULED OUT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NEEDED THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY EVENING
ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION, AND LIKELY THEREAFTER OVER SOUTHWEST
INDIANA SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE PENNYRILE REGION OF WESTERN KENTUCKY.
SEVERE STORM CHANCES WILL DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH
TONIGHT.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
530 PM CDT MON OCT 13 2014

KYZ013>021-132315-
CALDWELL KY-CHRISTIAN KY-DAVIESS KY-HENDERSON KY-HOPKINS KY-MCLEAN
KY-MUHLENBERG KY-UNION KY-WEBSTER KY-
530 PM CDT MON OCT 13 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR HENDERSON...WESTERN DAVIESS...
HOPKINS...WEBSTER...EASTERN UNION AND WESTERN MCLEAN COUNTIES IN
NORTHWEST KENTUCKY...AND NORTHWESTERN CHRISTIAN AND NORTHWESTERN
MUHLENBERG COUNTIES IN SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY...AND EASTERN CALDWELL
COUNTY IN WESTERN KENTUCKY UNTIL 615 PM CDT...

AT 526 PM CDT...STORM SPOTTERS REPORTED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A
LINE EXTENDING FROM 6 MILES SOUTHWEST OF CORYDON TO PROVIDENCE TO
COBB...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF PENNIES AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS THAT MAY BE IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  DAWSON SPRINGS...HENDERSON...MADISONVILLE...CALHOUN...CORYDON...
SEBREE...EARLINGTON...MORTONS GAP...BEECH GROVE...ST.
JOSEPH...NEBO...SLAUGHTERS...AND ST. CHARLES...

IF THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES YOUR AREA...TAKE SHELTER IN A
STURDY BUILDING.

THESE STORMS MAY INTENSIFY....AND A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR
THIS AREA. BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND TV STATIONS...AS
WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS....FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION AND
POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 3726 8726 3695 8787 3697 8789 3740 8779
      3771 8785 3794 8740 3794 8738 3791 8735
      3789 8729 3784 8721 3784 8717 3773 8715
TIME...MOT...LOC 2229Z 237DEG 31KT 3768 8772 3746 8768
          3708 8777

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
537 PM CDT MON OCT 13 2014

INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ018>020-132315-
DAVIESS KY-GIBSON IN-HENDERSON KY-MCLEAN KY-PIKE IN-POSEY IN-SPENCER
IN-VANDERBURGH IN-WARRICK IN-
537 PM CDT MON OCT 13 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WARRICK...EASTERN GIBSON...
PIKE...EASTERN POSEY...WESTERN SPENCER AND VANDERBURGH COUNTIES IN
SOUTHWEST INDIANA...AND HENDERSON...NORTHWESTERN DAVIESS AND EXTREME
NORTHWESTERN MCLEAN COUNTIES IN NORTHWEST KENTUCKY UNTIL 615 PM
CDT...

AT 534 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 7 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
MOUNT CARMEL TO CORYDON TO 5 MILES WEST OF SEBREE...AND MOVING NORTH
AT 70 MPH.

HAIL UP TO ONE-HALF INCH IN DIAMETER AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS...ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN.

LOCATIONS THAT MAY BE IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  HENDERSON...EVANSVILLE...MELODY HILL...FORT BRANCH...PRINCETON...
  NEWBURGH...CHANDLER...BOONVILLE...OAKLAND CITY...PETERSBURG...
  ROBARDS...KASSON...DARMSTADT...HAUBSTADT...PATOKA...FOLSOMVILLE...
  LYNNVILLE...WINSLOW...HEBBARDSVILLE AND ELBERFELD.

THESE STORMS MAY INTENSIFY....AND A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR
THIS AREA. BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND TV STATIONS...AS
WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS....FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION AND
POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

TORRENTIAL RAIN...WHICH MAY FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS DITCHES AND
UNDERPASSES...IS ALSO LIKELY. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE ON A FLOODED
ROADWAY.

LAT...LON 3853 8715 3854 8711 3851 8707 3821 8707
      3820 8700 3760 8748 3765 8750 3764 8769
      3772 8772 3778 8761 3799 8781 3831 8751
      3842 8768 3846 8767 3846 8760 3852 8754
      3851 8750 3855 8740 3852 8729 3856 8721
TIME...MOT...LOC 2237Z 200DEG 62KT 3839 8782 3785 8764
          3763 8760

SMITH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
548 PM CDT MON OCT 13 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0534 PM     FUNNEL CLOUD     1 N DAWSON SPRINGS      37.19N 87.69W
10/13/2014                   HOPKINS            KY   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            FUNNEL CLOUD MOVING EAST NORTHEAST, REPORTED JUST NORTH
            OF DAWSON SPRINGS. ESTIMATED WIND GUSTS OF 50 MPH.

&&

BP2

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
553 PM CDT MON OCT 13 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0546 PM     TSTM WND GST     2 WSW EVANSVILLE        38.08N 89.97W
10/13/2014  E60 MPH          RANDOLPH           IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

BP2

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>