Severe Thunderstorm Warning 161, NWS Paducah, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
254 PM CDT Mon Oct 13 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Wednesday night)
Issued at 255 PM CDT MON OCT 13 2014

Very busy with watches, warnings, etc so will make this rather
brief.

Strong cold front will continue to push eastward across our CWA
through the rest of the afternoon and evening, hopefully exiting the
eastern portions of our CWA after midnight.

With the eastward progress of the front, a QLCS line of strong to
severe thunderstorms will continue ahead of the boundary with some
storms becoming capable of producing damaging winds and a few
tornadoes. Locally heavy rainfall will also accompany the stronger
storms.

In the wake of this system, small chances of showers and patches of
drizzle will continue through the remainder of the overnight hours
tonight.

Chances for showers will continue Tuesday, Tuesday night, and
Wednesday with the slow approach and passage of an upper low over
our CWA. Rain chances will finally begin to taper off from the west
Wednesday night in the wake of the upper low.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 255 PM CDT MON OCT 13 2014

On Thursday...the upper level low will finally be departing the Ohio
Valley. Some lingering clouds and even a few showers are
possible...especially in southwest Indiana and the Pennyrile region
of west Kentucky. Temperatures should begin to recover toward more
seasonal levels.

On Friday...mainly sunny skies and seasonably warm temps are
expected as a weak ridge passes overhead.

Over the weekend into early next week...upper level troughing will
gradually settle into the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley region. This
will push a cold front /possibly followed by a secondary cold front/
across our region. The primary cold front appears to be dry...but a
secondary front could bring some showers late in the weekend into
early next week. Temperatures will gradually cool down. The 12z gfs
mos looks too warm. Will trend toward the cooler 00z ecmwf
mos...especially early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1227 PM CDT MON OCT 13 2014

Numerous showers and thunderstorms will cross the TAF sites from
west to east throughout the first few hours of the period. Some
storms may be severe and will produce locally heavy rainfall. MVFR
cigs/vsbys will prevail will the passage of the storms, however
brief IFR conditions may occur. In the wake of the area of
preciptation, IFR cigs and/or vsbys and patchy drizzle will
prevail through the overnight hours. Conditions should become MVFR
toward the end of the period. Southerly winds at 12-14 knots
gusting to 20-22 knots will drop off to AOB 10 knots overnight,
then pick back up from the south southwest at 10-12 knots with
gusts up to 20 knots after 15-16Z.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...JP
LONG TERM/FIRE WX...MY

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
120 PM CDT MON OCT 13 2014

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-
100-107>112-114-141830-
JEFFERSON-WAYNE IL-EDWARDS-WABASH-PERRY IL-FRANKLIN-HAMILTON-
WHITE-JACKSON-WILLIAMSON-SALINE-GALLATIN-UNION IL-JOHNSON-POPE-
HARDIN-ALEXANDER-PULASKI-MASSAC-GIBSON-PIKE-POSEY-VANDERBURGH-
WARRICK-SPENCER-FULTON-HICKMAN-CARLISLE-BALLARD-MCCRACKEN-GRAVES-
LIVINGSTON-MARSHALL-CALLOWAY-CRITTENDEN-LYON-TRIGG-CALDWELL-
UNION KY-WEBSTER-HOPKINS-CHRISTIAN-HENDERSON-DAVIESS-MCLEAN-
MUHLENBERG-TODD-PERRY MO-BOLLINGER-CAPE GIRARDEAU-WAYNE MO-CARTER-
RIPLEY-BUTLER-STODDARD-SCOTT-MISSISSIPPI-NEW MADRID-
120 PM CDT MON OCT 13 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS...SOUTHWEST INDIANA...WESTERN KENTUCKY AND SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

A VIGOROUS LINE OF STORMS WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING REACHING SOUTHWEST INDIANA SOUTHWARD TO THE
SOUTHERN PENNYRILE BETWEEN 6 AND 9 PM. OTHER STORMS MAY DEVELOP
AHEAD OF THIS LINE AS WELL.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE A STRONG POSSIBILITY THROUGH THIS EVENING.
THE MAIN CONCERNS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND TORNADOES WITHIN THE
MAIN LINE OF STORMS. LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE BUT MAINLY WITH
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE LINE.

LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS
...HOWEVER WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN IS LIKELY WITH THE LINE OF
STORMS THROUGH TONIGHT. TOTAL RAINFALL THROUGH TONIGHT WILL
GENERALLY RANGE FROM ONE AND A HALF TO 3 INCHES. THE GREATEST
AMOUNTS ARE LIKELY ACROSS SOUTHWEST INDIANA AND THE LAKES AND
PENNYRILE REGIONS OF WEST KENTUCKY. SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING ISSUES
WILL BE POSSIBLE...BUT WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT PROBLEMS ARE NOT
ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THE BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL MAY LINGER INTO THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS TUESDAY OVER SOUTHWEST INDIANA AND THE PENNYRILE
REGION OF WEST KENTUCKY. A FEW MINOR FLOOD PROBLEMS CANNOT BE
RULED OUT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NEEDED THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY EVENING
ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION, AND LIKELY THEREAFTER OVER SOUTHWEST
INDIANA SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE PENNYRILE REGION OF WESTERN KENTUCKY.
SEVERE STORM CHANCES WILL DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH
TONIGHT.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
548 PM CDT MON OCT 13 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0534 PM     FUNNEL CLOUD     1 N DAWSON SPRINGS      37.19N 87.69W
10/13/2014                   HOPKINS            KY   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            FUNNEL CLOUD MOVING EAST NORTHEAST, REPORTED JUST NORTH
            OF DAWSON SPRINGS. ESTIMATED WIND GUSTS OF 50 MPH.

&&

BP2

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
553 PM CDT MON OCT 13 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0546 PM     TSTM WND GST     2 WSW EVANSVILLE        38.08N 89.97W
10/13/2014  E60 MPH          RANDOLPH           IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

BP2

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