Alert archive / Missouri / Severe Thunderstorm Watches in 2012

Severe Thunderstorm Watch 236

May 4, 20124 states

The Storm Prediction Center issued this severe thunderstorm watch at May 4, 2012, 12:53 AM CDT for 4 states. It was in force for 4 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
May 4, 2012, 12:53 AM CDT (05:53 UTC)
Expired
May 4, 2012, 5:00 AM CDT
In force
4 hr
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
Largest hail expected
2 in
Strongest gust expected
60 kt
All 41 counties

Des Moines County, IA, Henry County, IA, Jefferson County, IA, Lee County, IA, Van Buren County, IA, Adams County, IL, Brown County, IL, Doniphan County, KS, Adair County, MO, Andrew County, MO, Atchison County, MO, Buchanan County, MO, Caldwell County, MO, Carroll County, MO, Chariton County, MO, Clark County, MO, Clinton County, MO, Daviess County, MO, DeKalb County, MO, Gentry County, MO, Grundy County, MO, Harrison County, MO, Holt County, MO, Knox County, MO, Lewis County, MO, Linn County, MO, Livingston County, MO, Macon County, MO, Marion County, MO, Mercer County, MO, Monroe County, MO, Nodaway County, MO, Putnam County, MO, Ralls County, MO, Randolph County, MO, Ray County, MO, Schuyler County, MO, Scotland County, MO, Shelby County, MO, Sullivan County, MO, Worth County, MO

The radar

The Des Moines radar (KDMX), 159 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 05:56 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What SPC expected

The probabilities SPC published with the watch, for the watch area over its life.

Two or more tornadoes
20%
One or more EF2 to EF5 tornadoes
5%
Ten or more severe wind reports
30%
One or more gusts of 65 knots or more
10%
Ten or more severe hail reports
30%
One or more hailstones of 2 inches or more
20%
Six or more combined severe hail and wind reports
70%

Warnings issued inside it

7 tornado, severe thunderstorm and flash flood warnings for its counties while it was in force.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
May 4, 1:10 AM CDTFlash Flood WarningDVNHenry, Jefferson6 hr
May 4, 1:28 AM CDTFlash Flood WarningEAXDaviess, DeKalb, Gentry6 hr
May 4, 2:40 AM CDTFlash Flood WarningDVNLee, Van Buren6 hr
May 4, 3:07 AM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningDVNLee38 min
May 4, 3:12 AM CDTFlash Flood WarningEAXGentry, Nodaway, Worth6 hr
May 4, 3:55 AM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningEAXHarrison14 min
May 4, 4:03 AM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLSXAdams, Brown42 min

Discussions around it

SPC mesoscale discussions over the same counties from four hours before the watch to its end.

The nearest sounding before it

Topeka, KS (KTOP), launched 00:00Z, 5.9 hours before the alert went out and 221 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Topeka, KS at 00:00Z on 2012-05-04Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 3511 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Topeka, KS at 00:00Z on 2012-05-04The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 102 square meters per square second.193958Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
3511 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-6 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
1105 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
27 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
102 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
196 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
2.0
Supercell composite
14.3

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

408 
WWUS20 KWNS 040556
SEL6
SPC WW 040556
IAZ000-ILZ000-KSZ000-MOZ000-041000-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 236
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1255 AM CDT FRI MAY 4 2012

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

       SOUTHEASTERN IOWA
       A SMALL PART OF WESTERN ILLINOIS
       FAR NORTHEAST KANSAS
       NORTHERN MISSOURI

EFFECTIVE THIS FRIDAY MORNING FROM 1255 AM UNTIL 500 AM CDT.

HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 125
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 40 MILES EAST
NORTHEAST OF LAMONI IOWA TO 30 MILES SOUTHEAST OF CHILLICOTHE
MISSOURI.  FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6).

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...THIS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REPLACES
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 234. WATCH NUMBER 234 WILL NOT BE IN EFFECT
AFTER 1255 AM CDT. CONTINUE...WW 235...

DISCUSSION...TSTMS EXPECTED TO PERSIST ALONG SRN FRINGE OF DIFFUSE
W-E FRONTAL ZONE OVER SRN IA/NRN MO...SUPPORTED BY 25-30 KT LLJ THAT
WILL FURTHER VEER FROM SWLY TO WSWLY.  OTHER THAN LOW LVL
WAA...FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL REMAIN WEAK.  BUT DEGREE OF BUOYANCY
/PER 00Z TOP RAOB/ AND RELATIVELY RICH MOISTURE INFLOW SUGGEST
CONTINUED RISK FOR SVR HAIL AND STRONG...PRECIP-ENHANCED DOWNDRAFTS
AS THE STORMS GRADUALLY EVOLVE INTO A LARGER SCALE...POSSIBLY
FORWARD-PROPAGATING MCS.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 27025.


...CORFIDI

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
May 3, 7:09 PM CDTTornado WatchSPCAdams, Brown, Pike, Rock Island6 hr
May 3, 10:29 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCCook, DeKalb, DuPage, Ford, Grundy, Iroquois and 7 more61 min
May 3, 11:18 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAdams, Brown, Bureau, Cass, DeWitt, Fulton and 22 more27 min
May 3, 11:34 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCBureau, Cass, Champaign, DeWitt, Ford, Fulton and 25 more5 hr
May 4, 2:16 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAdams, Brown, Bureau, Cass, DeWitt, Ford and 25 more119 min
May 4, 11:36 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCClay, Clinton, Edwards, Franklin, Gallatin, Hamilton and 17 more84 min
May 4, 1:29 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCEdwards, Wabash, White5 hr
May 4, 1:50 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBuena Vista, Cherokee, Clay, Dickinson, Emmet, Ida and 7 more25 min
May 4, 2:00 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCBuena Vista, Calhoun, Carroll, Cerro Gordo, Cherokee, Clay and 23 more9 hr
May 4, 3:52 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBuena Vista, Cerro Gordo, Cherokee, Clay, Dickinson, Emmet and 17 more53 min
May 4, 5:31 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAudubon, Benton, Black Hawk, Boone, Bremer, Buchanan and 66 more29 min
May 4, 5:52 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCFremont, Harrison, Mills, Monona, Montgomery, Page and 2 more5 hr
May 4, 6:01 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCBenton, Black Hawk, Boone, Bremer, Buchanan, Butler and 22 more3 hr
May 4, 12:20 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBarber, Clark, Comanche, Edwards, Harper, Harvey and 6 more55 min
May 4, 1:43 AM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCButler, Chase, Chautauqua, Cowley, Elk, Greenwood and 7 more2 hr

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Watches in Missouri, 2012Severe Thunderstorm Watches in Iowa, 2012Severe Thunderstorm Watches in Illinois, 2012Every severe thunderstorm watch in 2012

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.