Alert archive / Pennsylvania / Mesoscale Discussions in 2012
Mesoscale Discussion 966
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at May 29, 2012, 4:40 PM EDT for 4 counties in New Jersey; 4 counties in New York; 28 counties in Pennsylvania. It was in force for 65 min.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- May 29, 2012, 4:40 PM EDT (20:40 UTC)
- Expired
- May 29, 2012, 5:45 PM EDT
- In force
- 65 min
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
All 36 counties
Hunterdon County, NJ, Morris County, NJ, Sussex County, NJ, Warren County, NJ, Broome County, NY, Delaware County, NY, Otsego County, NY, Sullivan County, NY, Adams County, PA, Berks County, PA, Bucks County, PA, Carbon County, PA, Chester County, PA, Columbia County, PA, Cumberland County, PA, Dauphin County, PA, Franklin County, PA, Lackawanna County, PA, Lancaster County, PA, Lebanon County, PA, Lehigh County, PA, Luzerne County, PA, Monroe County, PA, Montgomery County, PA, Montour County, PA, Northampton County, PA, Northumberland County, PA, Perry County, PA, Pike County, PA, Schuylkill County, PA, Snyder County, PA, Sullivan County, PA, Susquehanna County, PA, Wayne County, PA, Wyoming County, PA, York County, PA
The radar
The Binghamton radar (KBGM), 130 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 20:40 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The watches that followed
Watches SPC issued over any of the same counties within four hours of this discussion.
The nearest sounding before it
Phillips Aaf/Abe, MD (KAPG), launched 12:00Z, 8.7 hours before the alert went out and 186 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 667 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -217 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 1153 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 6 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- -39 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- -10 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.
834
ACUS11 KWNS 292041
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 292040
NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-292145-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0966
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0340 PM CDT TUE MAY 29 2012
AREAS AFFECTED...ERN PA...SERN NY
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 315...
VALID 292040Z - 292145Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 315
CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...THREAT OF DMGG WIND AND HAIL PERSISTS ACROSS SEVERE WW
315. STABLE AREAS IN THE WAKE OF THE PRE-FRONTAL LINE OF CONVECTION
MAY BE CLEARED. AREAS DOWNSTREAM ARE STILL BEING MONITORED FOR A
POTENTIAL WW.
DISCUSSION...A BROKEN LINE OF CONVECTION CONTINUES TO PROGRESS
EWD...AND HAS MOVED OUT OF SEVERE WW312. ACROSS SERN NY...AN OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY FROM CONVECTION OVER THE CATSKILLS IS SURGING NWWD...AND
MAY LOCALLY ENHANCE THE STRENGTH OF THE STORMS TO THE W AS THE
BOUNDARIES MERGE. OTHERWISE...THE AIR MASS ACROSS SERN NY INTO WRN
MA REMAINS MODERATELY UNSTABLE...AND WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SEVERE
WINDS AND HAIL.
FARTHER S...AREA VAD WIND PROFILE DATA SUGGESTS THAT THE STRONGER
LOW-LEVEL WINDS REMAIN BEHIND THE PRIMARY LINE OF CONVECTION.
HOWEVER...STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ACROSS ERN PA INTO NJ MAY
STILL SUPPORT A DMGG WIND THREAT. AREAS TO THE EAST OF WW315 ARE
BEING MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW. ALTHOUGH NOCTURNAL COOLING WILL
GRADUALLY STABILIZE THE BOUNDARY LAYER...SEASONABLY WARM/HUMID
CONDITIONS AND WARM ADVECTION REGIME MAY LEAD TO A SLOWER THAN
TYPICAL DEVELOPMENT OF THE INVERSION.
..HURLBUT.. 05/29/2012
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...CTP...
LAT...LON 39777573 39787785 41707646 42877500 42257448 41687450
40827446 39777573SPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 29, 2:13 PM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Bergen, Essex, Hunterdon, Mercer, Morris, Passaic and 4 more | 62 min |
| May 29, 5:54 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Bergen, Burlington, Camden, Essex, Gloucester, Hudson and 11 more | 3 hr |
| May 29, 7:01 PM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Bergen, Burlington, Essex, Hudson, Hunterdon, Mercer and 6 more | 89 min |
| May 29, 10:27 AM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Allegany, Cattaraugus, Cayuga, Chautauqua, Jefferson, Lewis and 11 more | 5 hr |
| May 29, 11:43 AM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Albany, Broome, Cayuga, Chemung, Chenango, Columbia and 26 more | 62 min |
| May 29, 12:01 PM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Albany, Broome, Chemung, Chenango, Columbia, Cortland and 19 more | 59 min |
| May 29, 12:26 PM EDT | Tornado Watch | SPC | Albany, Clinton, Columbia, Dutchess, Essex, Franklin and 13 more | 8 hr |
| May 29, 1:03 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Broome, Chemung, Chenango, Cortland, Delaware, Madison and 5 more | 8 hr |
| May 29, 1:25 PM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Allegany, Cattaraugus, Cayuga, Chautauqua, Erie, Genesee and 13 more | 65 min |
| May 29, 1:52 PM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Albany, Clinton, Columbia, Essex, Franklin, Fulton and 8 more | 53 min |
| May 29, 3:12 PM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Broome, Cayuga, Chemung, Chenango, Cortland, Delaware and 12 more | 63 min |
| May 29, 3:26 PM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Albany, Clinton, Columbia, Essex, Franklin, Fulton and 11 more | 64 min |
| May 29, 7:21 PM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Dutchess | 54 min |
| May 29, 9:48 AM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Allegheny, Armstrong, Beaver, Butler, Clarion, Clearfield and 8 more | 87 min |
Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in Pennsylvania, 2012Mesoscale Discussions in New Jersey, 2012Mesoscale Discussions in New York, 2012Every mesoscale discussion in 2012
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.