Alert archive / New York / Mesoscale Discussions in 2012
Mesoscale Discussion 954
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at May 29, 2012, 11:43 AM EDT for 32 counties in New York; 5 counties in Pennsylvania; Rutland County, Vermont. It was in force for 62 min.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- May 29, 2012, 11:43 AM EDT (15:43 UTC)
- Expired
- May 29, 2012, 12:45 PM EDT
- In force
- 62 min
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
All 38 counties
Albany County, NY, Broome County, NY, Cayuga County, NY, Chemung County, NY, Chenango County, NY, Columbia County, NY, Cortland County, NY, Delaware County, NY, Essex County, NY, Fulton County, NY, Greene County, NY, Hamilton County, NY, Herkimer County, NY, Madison County, NY, Montgomery County, NY, Oneida County, NY, Onondaga County, NY, Otsego County, NY, Rensselaer County, NY, Saratoga County, NY, Schenectady County, NY, Schoharie County, NY, Schuyler County, NY, Seneca County, NY, Steuben County, NY, Sullivan County, NY, Tioga County, NY, Tompkins County, NY, Ulster County, NY, Warren County, NY, Washington County, NY, Yates County, NY, Bradford County, PA, Lackawanna County, PA, Susquehanna County, PA, Wayne County, PA, Wyoming County, PA, Rutland County, VT
The radar
The Albany radar (KENX), 62 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 15:42 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The watches that followed
Watches SPC issued over any of the same counties within four hours of this discussion.
The nearest sounding before it
Albany, NY (KALY), launched 12:00Z, 3.7 hours before the alert went out and 80 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 1908 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -96 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 1026 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 42 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 123 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 141 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.1
- Supercell composite
- 0.7
The text
As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.
559
ACUS11 KWNS 291544
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 291543
VTZ000-NYZ000-PAZ000-291645-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0954
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1043 AM CDT TUE MAY 29 2012
AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/ERN NY...NERN PA...FAR W CNTRL VT
CONCERNING...OUTLOOK UPGRADE
VALID 291543Z - 291645Z
SUMMARY...AN UPGRADE TO MDT RISK APPEARS TO BE WARRANTED ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST WITH THE 1630Z OUTLOOK. A PRIMARY THREAT
OF DMGG WIND IS EXPECTED...THOUGH LARGE HAIL IS ALSO POSSIBLE. AN
ENHANCED TORNADO THREAT MAY EXIST ALONG THE HUDSON VALLEY AND
PORTIONS OF WRN NEW ENGLAND LATER TODAY.
DISCUSSION...NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON WITH THE APPROACH OF A STRONG UPPER TROUGH. WITH VARIOUS
AREAS OF INITIATION POSSIBLE AND STORMS APPROACHING FROM THE
W...SEVERAL ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
REGION. GIVEN STRONGER LOW LEVEL WINDS ACROSS CNTRL NY INTO WRN NEW
ENGLAND AND THE SEASONABLY MOIST/UNSTABLE AIR MASS...AN UPGRADE TO
MDT FOR DMGG WINDS APPEARS WARRANTED. PLEASE SEE THE UPCOMING 1630Z
OUTLOOK FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.
..HURLBUT/WEISS.. 05/29/2012
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...BTV...OKX...ALY...BGM...BUF...CTP...
LAT...LON 41387483 41387574 42007744 42607736 43617568 44177445
44217388 43857315 43577301 42437339 41627400 41387483SPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 29, 10:27 AM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Allegany, Cattaraugus, Cayuga, Chautauqua, Jefferson, Lewis and 11 more | 5 hr |
| May 29, 12:01 PM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Albany, Broome, Chemung, Chenango, Columbia, Cortland and 19 more | 59 min |
| May 29, 12:26 PM EDT | Tornado Watch | SPC | Albany, Clinton, Columbia, Dutchess, Essex, Franklin and 13 more | 8 hr |
| May 29, 1:03 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Broome, Chemung, Chenango, Cortland, Delaware, Madison and 5 more | 8 hr |
| May 29, 1:25 PM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Allegany, Cattaraugus, Cayuga, Chautauqua, Erie, Genesee and 13 more | 65 min |
| May 29, 1:52 PM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Albany, Clinton, Columbia, Essex, Franklin, Fulton and 8 more | 53 min |
| May 29, 2:13 PM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Broome, Chemung, Chenango, Cortland, Delaware, Dutchess and 10 more | 62 min |
| May 29, 3:12 PM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Broome, Cayuga, Chemung, Chenango, Cortland, Delaware and 12 more | 63 min |
| May 29, 3:26 PM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Albany, Clinton, Columbia, Essex, Franklin, Fulton and 11 more | 64 min |
| May 29, 4:40 PM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Broome, Delaware, Otsego, Sullivan | 65 min |
| May 29, 5:54 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Bronx, Kings, New York, Orange, Putnam, Queens and 3 more | 3 hr |
| May 29, 7:01 PM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Bronx, Kings, New York, Putnam, Richmond, Rockland and 1 more | 89 min |
| May 29, 7:21 PM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Dutchess | 54 min |
| May 29, 9:48 AM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Allegheny, Armstrong, Beaver, Butler, Clarion, Clearfield and 8 more | 87 min |
Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in New York, 2012Mesoscale Discussions in Pennsylvania, 2012Mesoscale Discussions in Vermont, 2012Every mesoscale discussion in 2012
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.