Mesoscale Discussion 956

Issued

May 29, 2012, 12:01 PM EDT (16:01 UTC)

Expired

May 29, 2012, 1:00 PM EDT

In force

59 min

Issued by

the Storm Prediction Center

Concerning

Severe potential...watch likely

Chance of a watch

95%

The Binghamton radar (KBGM), 49 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 16:02 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

• Tornado Watch 313May 29, 12:30 PM EDT
• Severe Thunderstorm Watch 314May 29, 1:05 PM EDT

001 
ACUS11 KWNS 291602
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 291601 COR
VTZ000-MAZ000-CTZ000-NYZ000-PAZ000-291700-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0956
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1101 AM CDT TUE MAY 29 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...N CNTRL/NERN PA...CNTRL/ERN NY INTO WRN NEW ENGLAND

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 291601Z - 291700Z

CORRECTED FOR GRAPHIC

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...95 PERCENT

SUMMARY...GIVEN THE HIGHER THAN AVERAGE CONFIDENCE OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...A WW IS BEING COORDINATED SHORTLY FOR ERN
NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND. ALTHOUGH A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WW IS LIKELY
FOR WRN PORTIONS OF THE AREA...A TORNADO WW IS BEING CONSIDERED FOR
THE HUDSON VALLEY EWD.

DISCUSSION...WITH STORMS APPROACHING FROM THE WEST AND ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT LIKELY LATER TODAY...A WW MAY BE NEEDED SHORTLY. SEVERAL
AREAS OF NEW INITIATION REMAIN POSSIBLE...INCLUDING ALONG THE
PREFRONTAL TROUGH OVER ERN NY...AND ALONG A REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
ACROSS THE MOHAWK VALLEY. ALTHOUGH THE AIR MASS IS MODERATELY
UNSTABLE AND NO LONGER CAPPED...NEW INITIATION WILL LIKELY BE
DELAYED BY THE PRESENCE OF THE UPPER RIDGE. AS HEIGHTS BEGIN TO FALL
AND FORCING FOR ASCENT APPROACHES THE AREA...THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BEGIN TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE. A PREDOMINANT THREAT OF DMGG WINDS IS
EXPECTED...GIVEN THE STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET /25-30 KT 850 MB
JET BY THIS AFTERNOON/ AND STEEPENING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES. WITH
BACKED SLY SURFACE WINDS IN THE HUDSON VALLEY AND 70S DEW
POINTS...ENHANCED TORNADO POTENTIAL MAY EXIST...ESPECIALLY WITH ANY
DISCRETE SUPERCELLS THAT CAN DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE MAIN LINE OF
CONVECTION.

..HURLBUT/WEISS.. 05/29/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...BOX...BTV...OKX...ALY...BGM...CTP...

LAT...LON   41447450 41247605 40977656 40727680 40667745 41017795
            41357799 41817734 42067686 43657502 44627371 44297277
            43307244 42357294 41437420 41447450

Mesoscale Discussions in New York, 2012Mesoscale Discussions in Pennsylvania, 2012Mesoscale Discussions in Vermont, 2012Every mesoscale discussion in 2012

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.