Alert archive / New Jersey / Mesoscale Discussions in 2012
Mesoscale Discussion 1010
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Jun 1, 2012, 4:25 PM EDT for Kent County, New Castle County, Sussex County, Delaware; 7 counties in New Jersey; 5 counties in Pennsylvania. It was in force for 65 min.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Jun 1, 2012, 4:25 PM EDT (20:25 UTC)
- Expired
- Jun 1, 2012, 5:30 PM EDT
- In force
- 65 min
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
- Chance of a watch
- 80%
Counties Kent County, DE, New Castle County, DE, Sussex County, DE, Atlantic County, NJ, Burlington County, NJ, Camden County, NJ, Cape May County, NJ, Cumberland County, NJ, Gloucester County, NJ, Salem County, NJ, Berks County, PA, Chester County, PA, Delaware County, PA, Montgomery County, PA, Philadelphia County, PA
The radar
The Philadelphia radar (KDIX), 85 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 20:28 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The watches that followed
Watches SPC issued over any of the same counties within four hours of this discussion.
The nearest sounding before it
Washington/Dulle, VA (KIAD), launched 12:00Z, 8.4 hours before the alert went out and 196 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 26 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -174 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 1061 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 32 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 148 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 174 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.
329
ACUS11 KWNS 012025
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 012025
NJZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-012130-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1010
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0325 PM CDT FRI JUN 01 2012
AREAS AFFECTED...SERN PA...SRN NJ...DE
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY
VALID 012025Z - 012130Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT
SUMMARY...TORNADO THREAT WILL INCREASE ACROSS SERN PA...DE...AND SRN
NJ OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
DISCUSSION...WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ADVANCE SLOWLY NWD ACROSS DE
INTO SERN PA AND SRN NJ. THIS NWD SHIFT WILL ALLOW ONGOING
SUPERCELL ACTIVITY UPSTREAM OVER MD TO SPREAD INTO THE REGION AS
HIGHER THETA-E AIR REPLACES COOLER ELY LOW LEVEL FLOW. SOMEWHAT
STRONGER LOW LEVEL SHEAR ALONG THE WARM FRONT SUGGESTS TORNADO
THREAT MAY BE ENHANCED AS THIS BOUNDARY LIFTS NWD.
..DARROW/CARBIN.. 06/01/2012
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...PHI...CTP...
LAT...LON 40627561 39667418 38617424 38517560 39767598 40457635
40627561SPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 1, 3:49 PM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Kent, New Castle | 56 min |
| Jun 1, 12:29 PM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Franklin, Fulton | 61 min |
| Jun 1, 1:03 PM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Adams, Bedford, Fayette, Franklin, Fulton, Somerset and 1 more | 87 min |
| Jun 1, 1:28 PM EDT | Tornado Watch | SPC | Adams, Bedford, Blair, Cambria, Cumberland, Fayette and 8 more | 8 hr |
| Jun 1, 1:50 PM EDT | Tornado Watch | SPC | Berks, Dauphin, Lancaster, Lebanon, York | 7 hr |
| Jun 1, 3:35 PM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Adams, Bedford, Blair, Cambria, Cumberland, Franklin and 6 more | 55 min |
| Jun 1, 5:46 PM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Cameron, Centre, Clearfield, Clinton, Elk, Forest and 10 more | 89 min |
| Jun 1, 6:04 PM EDT | Tornado Watch | SPC | Cameron, Centre, Clearfield, Clinton, Columbia, Elk and 10 more | 5 hr |
| Jun 1, 6:54 PM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Berks, Chester, Dauphin, Lancaster, Lebanon, York | 2 hr |
Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in New Jersey, 2012Mesoscale Discussions in Pennsylvania, 2012Mesoscale Discussions in Delaware, 2012Every mesoscale discussion in 2012
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.