Alert archive / Pennsylvania / Mesoscale Discussions in 2012
Mesoscale Discussion 1013
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Jun 1, 2012, 5:46 PM EDT for 9 counties in New York; 16 counties in Pennsylvania. It was in force for 89 min.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Jun 1, 2012, 5:46 PM EDT (21:46 UTC)
- Expired
- Jun 1, 2012, 7:15 PM EDT
- In force
- 89 min
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
- Chance of a watch
- 60%
All 25 counties
Allegany County, NY, Cattaraugus County, NY, Chautauqua County, NY, Erie County, NY, Genesee County, NY, Livingston County, NY, Niagara County, NY, Steuben County, NY, Wyoming County, NY, Cameron County, PA, Centre County, PA, Clearfield County, PA, Clinton County, PA, Elk County, PA, Forest County, PA, Jefferson County, PA, Lycoming County, PA, McKean County, PA, Montour County, PA, Northumberland County, PA, Potter County, PA, Snyder County, PA, Tioga County, PA, Union County, PA, Warren County, PA
The radar
The State College radar (KCCX), 108 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 21:46 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The watches that followed
Watches SPC issued over any of the same counties within four hours of this discussion.
The nearest sounding before it
Buffalo Intl Airport, NY (KBUF), launched 12:00Z, 9.8 hours before the alert went out and 123 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 0 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- No buoyant parcel
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 1119 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 36 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 379 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 691 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.
505
ACUS11 KWNS 012147
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 012146
PAZ000-NYZ000-012315-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1013
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0446 PM CDT FRI JUN 01 2012
AREAS AFFECTED...N CNTRL PA INTO WRN NY
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 012146Z - 012315Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT
SUMMARY...A FEW SEVERE STORMS MAY PERSIST NE OF WW 332...AND
ADDITIONAL CONSOLIDATION OF THE LINE MAY OCCUR AS WELL...EVENTUALLY
AFFECTING WRN NY. DAMAGING WINDS AND A FEW EMBEDDED AREAS OF
ROTATION WILL BE POSSIBLE.
DISCUSSION...WEAK INSTABILITY CURRENTLY EXISTS OVER NRN PA...WITH
VERY LITTLE IN WRN NY. HOWEVER...A STRONG SLY LOW LEVEL JET WILL
COMBINE WITH COOLING ALOFT TO RESULT IN MARGINAL INSTABILITY
SUFFICIENT FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER INTO THIS EVENING.
THE SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT IS LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEAK
CONVECTIVE LINE IN ERN OH...BUT SOME STABILIZATION HAS OCCURRED TO
THE E WITH A STRONGER LINE IN PROGRESS. WITH A NNEWD MOVING PRESSURE
RISE/FALL COUPLET...AND INCREASE SHEAR PROFILES...SOME BOWS OR LINE
SEGMENTS MAY REMAIN STRONG TO SEVERE THROUGH EVENING EVEN WITH
MINIMAL INSTABILITY. THE GREATEST THREAT AREA WILL BE OVER PA WHERE
STRONGER INSTABILITY WILL EXIST...WITH A LESSER THREAT TO THE N.
..JEWELL/CORFIDI.. 06/01/2012
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...BGM...BUF...CTP...PBZ...
LAT...LON 40737892 41647936 42357961 43297910 43407872 42897789
41947678 41127641 40677660 40737892SPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 1, 12:29 PM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Franklin, Fulton | 61 min |
| Jun 1, 1:03 PM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Adams, Bedford, Fayette, Franklin, Fulton, Somerset and 1 more | 87 min |
| Jun 1, 1:28 PM EDT | Tornado Watch | SPC | Adams, Bedford, Blair, Cambria, Cumberland, Fayette and 8 more | 8 hr |
| Jun 1, 1:50 PM EDT | Tornado Watch | SPC | Berks, Dauphin, Lancaster, Lebanon, York | 7 hr |
| Jun 1, 3:35 PM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Adams, Bedford, Blair, Cambria, Cumberland, Franklin and 6 more | 55 min |
| Jun 1, 3:49 PM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Chester, Delaware, Lancaster, Philadelphia, York | 56 min |
| Jun 1, 4:25 PM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Berks, Chester, Delaware, Montgomery, Philadelphia | 65 min |
| Jun 1, 6:04 PM EDT | Tornado Watch | SPC | Cameron, Centre, Clearfield, Clinton, Columbia, Elk and 10 more | 5 hr |
| Jun 1, 6:54 PM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Berks, Chester, Dauphin, Lancaster, Lebanon, York | 2 hr |
Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in Pennsylvania, 2012Mesoscale Discussions in New York, 2012Every mesoscale discussion in 2012
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.