Alert archive / Virginia / Mesoscale Discussions in 2012
Mesoscale Discussion 1003
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Jun 1, 2012, 12:29 PM EDT for 4 states. It was in force for 61 min.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Jun 1, 2012, 12:29 PM EDT (16:29 UTC)
- Expired
- Jun 1, 2012, 1:30 PM EDT
- In force
- 61 min
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
All 43 counties
Anne Arundel County, MD, Calvert County, MD, Carroll County, MD, Charles County, MD, City of Baltimore, MD, Frederick County, MD, Howard County, MD, Montgomery County, MD, Prince George's County, MD, Saint Mary's County, MD, Washington County, MD, Franklin County, PA, Fulton County, PA, Arlington County, VA, Caroline County, VA, City of Alexandria, VA, City of Fairfax, VA, City of Falls Church, VA, City of Fredericksburg, VA, City of Manassas, VA, City of Manassas Park, VA, City of Winchester, VA, Clarke County, VA, Culpeper County, VA, Essex County, VA, Fairfax County, VA, Fauquier County, VA, Frederick County, VA, King and Queen County, VA, King George County, VA, King William County, VA, Loudoun County, VA, Orange County, VA, Prince William County, VA, Rappahannock County, VA, Richmond County, VA, Spotsylvania County, VA, Stafford County, VA, Warren County, VA, Westmoreland County, VA, Berkeley County, WV, Jefferson County, WV, Morgan County, WV
The radar
The Sterling radar (KLWX), 27 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 16:30 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The watches that followed
Watches SPC issued over any of the same counties within four hours of this discussion.
The nearest sounding before it
Washington/Dulle, VA (KIAD), launched 12:00Z, 4.5 hours before the alert went out and 22 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 26 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -174 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 1061 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 32 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 148 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 174 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.
125
ACUS11 KWNS 011630
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 011629
MDZ000-VAZ000-DCZ000-PAZ000-WVZ000-011730-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1003
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1129 AM CDT FRI JUN 01 2012
AREAS AFFECTED...NERN VA...A LARGE PART OF MD...THE DISTRICT OF
COLUMBIA...A SMALL PART OF THE ERN PANHANDLE OF WV...S-CNTRL PA
CONCERNING...OUTLOOK UPGRADE
VALID 011629Z - 011730Z
SUMMARY...A CATEGORICAL UPGRADE TO MODERATE RISK WILL BE INCLUDED
WITH THE 1630 UTC DAY ONE CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK ACROSS NERN VA...A
LARGE PART OF MD...THE DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA...A SMALL PART OF THE
ERN PANHANDLE OF WV...AND S-CNTRL PA.
DISCUSSION...LATEST OBSERVATIONAL AND MODEL OUTPUT WARRANT AN
UPGRADE TO MODERATE RISK FOR THE UPCOMING 1630 UTC OUTLOOK. PLEASE
SEE FORTHCOMING DAY ONE OUTLOOK FOR ADDITIONAL METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.
..COHEN/BROYLES/CARBIN.. 06/01/2012
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...CTP...LWX...
LAT...LON 38157807 39137827 39687826 40007808 39937734 39207640
38547612 38157630 37667674 37697733 38157807SPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 1, 1:03 PM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Allegany, Anne Arundel, Baltimore, Calvert, Carroll, Charles and 11 more | 87 min |
| Jun 1, 1:28 PM EDT | Tornado Watch | SPC | Allegany, Frederick, Garrett, Washington | 8 hr |
| Jun 1, 1:50 PM EDT | Tornado Watch | SPC | Anne Arundel, Baltimore, Calvert, Caroline, Carroll, Cecil and 13 more | 7 hr |
| Jun 1, 3:35 PM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Allegany, Frederick, Garrett, Washington | 55 min |
| Jun 1, 3:49 PM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Anne Arundel, Baltimore, Calvert, Caroline, Carroll, Cecil and 11 more | 56 min |
| Jun 1, 6:54 PM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Anne Arundel, Baltimore, Calvert, Caroline, Carroll, Cecil and 14 more | 2 hr |
| Jun 1, 4:25 PM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Berks, Chester, Delaware, Montgomery, Philadelphia | 65 min |
| Jun 1, 5:46 PM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Cameron, Centre, Clearfield, Clinton, Elk, Forest and 10 more | 89 min |
| Jun 1, 6:04 PM EDT | Tornado Watch | SPC | Cameron, Centre, Clearfield, Clinton, Columbia, Elk and 10 more | 5 hr |
Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in Virginia, 2012Mesoscale Discussions in Maryland, 2012Mesoscale Discussions in West Virginia, 2012Every mesoscale discussion in 2012
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.