Severe Thunderstorm Warning 171, NWS Topeka, KS

161 
WWUS53 KTOP 210214
SVSTOP

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
914 PM CDT MON JUN 20 2011

KSC085-210223-
/O.CAN.KTOP.SV.W.0171.000000T0000Z-110621T0230Z/
JACKSON-
914 PM CDT MON JUN 20 2011

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN JACKSON COUNTY
HAS BEEN CANCELLED...

THE SEVERE PART OF THE LINE OF STORMS MOVED OUT OF THE COUNTY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS FOR THE
LATEST SEVERE WEATHER INFORMATION.

&&

LAT...LON 3916 9517 3912 9518 3885 9519 3876 9567
      3922 9559 3941 9559 3942 9556 3942 9518
TIME...MOT...LOC 0213Z 239DEG 39KT 3949 9539 3884 9545

$$

KSC045-087-139-177-210230-
/O.CON.KTOP.SV.W.0171.000000T0000Z-110621T0230Z/
SHAWNEE-OSAGE-JEFFERSON-DOUGLAS-
914 PM CDT MON JUN 20 2011

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 930 PM CDT
FOR WESTERN DOUGLAS...JEFFERSON...NORTHEASTERN OSAGE AND EASTERN
SHAWNEE COUNTIES...

AT 911 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING
WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM 6 MILES NORTHWEST OF NORTONVILLE TO 11 MILES EAST OF
CARBONDALE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
PERRY...LECOMPTON...CLINTON LAKE...CLINTON...NORTONVILLE...LONE
STAR...WILLIAMSTOWN...OSKALOOSA...PLEASANT 
GROVE...WINCHESTER...LAWRENCE...AND MCLOUTH.

THIS INCLUDES THE KANSAS TURNPIKE BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 182 AND 205.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS FOR THE
LATEST SEVERE WEATHER INFORMATION.

&&

LAT...LON 3916 9517 3912 9518 3885 9519 3876 9567
      3922 9559 3941 9559 3942 9556 3942 9518
TIME...MOT...LOC 0213Z 239DEG 39KT 3949 9539 3884 9545
WIND...HAIL 60MPH <.75IN

$$

692 
WWUS53 KTOP 210226
SVSTOP

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
926 PM CDT MON JUN 20 2011

KSC045-087-139-177-210235-
/O.EXP.KTOP.SV.W.0171.000000T0000Z-110621T0230Z/
SHAWNEE-OSAGE-JEFFERSON-DOUGLAS-
926 PM CDT MON JUN 20 2011

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR WESTERN DOUGLAS...JEFFERSON...
NORTHEASTERN OSAGE AND EASTERN SHAWNEE COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT 930 PM
CDT...

AT 925 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RADAR INDICATED THAT THE 
LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THAT PROMPTED THE WARNING HAD WEAKENED 
AND WERE NO LONGER SEVERE...THUS THE WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 930 PM 
CDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

RADAR INDICATED THAT HEAVY RAIN...SMALL HAIL...AND GUSTY WINDS WERE 
STILL POSSIBLE FROM THE THUNDERSTORMS AS THEY MOVE EAST.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS FOR THE 
LATEST SEVERE WEATHER INFORMATION.

&&

LAT...LON 3916 9517 3912 9518 3885 9519 3876 9567
      3922 9559 3941 9559 3942 9556 3942 9518
TIME...MOT...LOC 0225Z 239DEG 39KT 3947 9523 3884 9534

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
642 PM CDT MON JUN 20 2011

...UPDATE TO AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...

LATEST ANALYSIS HAD SURFACE LOW NEAR RUSSEL WITH A DRY LINE
EXTENDING FROM SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA TO NEAR ELLSWORTH. A LINE OF
ELEVATED SHOWERS HAD DEVELOPED ABOVE THE CAPPING INVERSION EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON. WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS UPPER LOW BEGINNING TO TAKE A
NEGATIVE TILT AS IT MOVES ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS. DRY LINE WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD THROUGH THE EVENING. STARTING TO GET
INITIATION OFF THE DRY LINE IN THE WESTERN CWA NEAR MCPHERSON. 0-6KM
SHEAR 40 TO 50 KTS AND WILL INCREASE AS THE UPPER LOW PROGRESSES
EASTWARD. LAPSE RATES WILL CONTINUE TO STEEPEN AS WELL. DOWNDRAFT
CAPE AVERAGING AROUND 1000-17000 J/KG. LCL HEIGHTS WERE AVERAGING
BETWEEN 1200 TO 1500 METERS. FORCING FOR ASCENT AND CONVERGENCE
ALONG THE DRY LINE WILL CONTINUE TO TOUCH OFF STORMS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. INCREASING SHEAR WILL KEEP A TORNADO THREAT. STORMS
WILL BE DISCRETE SUPERCELLS INITIALLY THEN FORMING INTO A LINE WITH
BOWING SEGMENTS.

WINDS IN EAST CENTRAL KANSAS SHOULD ABATE THIS EVENING AS THE
SURFACE LOW MOVES NORTH INTO SOUTHERN NEBRASKA SO WILL LIKELY BE
ABLE TO HAVE THE WIND ADVISORY EXPIRE AROUND 00Z.

OVERNIGHT THE STORMS SHOULD MOVE OFF TO THE EAST AS DRYLINE SPREADS
NORTHEAST INTO WESTERN MO.

ON TUESDAY WRAP AROUND SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS SOUTHEAST
NEBRASKA THEN INTO NORTHWEST IOWA IN THE AFTERNOON. BEST CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST SECTIONS OF THE
CWA. HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL BE COOLER WITH LOWER HUMIDITY. HIGHS WILL
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S TO THE MID 80S. 53

AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY...CANNOT RULE OUT
A SHOWER POSSIBILITY IN THE FAR NORTHEAST COUNTY WARNING (CWA) AS
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO WRAP IN BEHIND IT. HOWEVER...STILL FEEL THE
POTENTIAL IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO WARRANT A POP AND CONTINUED A DRY
FORECAST TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. WITH DRIER AIR AND DECREASING
CLOUDS MOST AREAS TUESDAY NIGHT...IT WILL BE A COOLER NIGHT WITH
LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. WITH A GUSTY NORTHWEST WIND AND
MOST CLOUDS MAINLY CONFINED TO THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE
CWA...HIGHS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S NORTHEAST TO THE MIDDLE
80S IN THE ABILENE AND EMPORIA AREAS. AFTER ONE MORE NIGHT IN THE
UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S WEDNESDAY NIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO
GRADUALLY INCREASE THURSDAY AS UPSTREAM UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TAKES
PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS REGION. HIGHS
THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE 80S WITH THE 80S AND A FEW LOW 90S THE RULE
ON THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS PATTERN WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR A SERIES OF
WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVES TO MOVES EAST FROM THE ROCKIES AND INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS REGION. AT THE SAME TIME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
ALSO RETURN FROM THE SOUTH AND  POOL ACROSS THE AREA. THIS UNSETTLED
PATTERN WILL ALLOW FOR SEVERAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WITH THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF EACH OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. 63

&&

.AVIATION...

LINE OF CONVECTION WILL MOVE THROUGH THE TAF SITES THIS EVENING.
OF FIRST CONCERN WILL BE MHK FOR THE FIRST COUPLE OF HOURS OF THE
PERIOD. LINE OF STORMS WILL MOVE THROUGH MHK WITH WIND GUSTS OVER
50 KTS POSSIBLE AS WELL AS HAIL. THIS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE IN THE
TOP AND FOE AREAS AFTER 01Z AS THE LINE ACCELERATES. MVFR GIGS AND
VSBYS EXPECTED WITH THE CONVECTION AND BRIEFLY DOWN TO IFR VSBYS
WILL BE COMMON. AFTER LINE MOVES THROUGH VFR EXPECTED BUT STRATUS
WILL WRAP BACK INTO THE SITES BUT REMAINING VFR.

53

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
341 PM CDT MON JUN 20 2011

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-212045-
REPUBLIC-WASHINGTON-MARSHALL-NEMAHA-BROWN-CLOUD-CLAY-RILEY-
POTTAWATOMIE-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-OTTAWA-DICKINSON-GEARY-MORRIS-
WABAUNSEE-SHAWNEE-DOUGLAS-LYON-OSAGE-FRANKLIN-COFFEY-ANDERSON-
341 PM CDT MON JUN 20 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL...NORTH
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LIKELY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA. THE STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL BE STRONG TO
SEVERE. LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND TORNADOES ARE ALL POSSIBLE.

STRONG WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH WILL CONTINUE ACROSS EAST CENTRAL KANSAS
UNTIL EARLY EVENING WITH GUSTS AROUND 45 MPH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN ON TUESDAY. HOWEVER
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE AGAIN BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED THROUGH THIS EVENING.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
826 PM CDT MON JUN 20 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0822 PM     HAIL             4 S EMPORIA             38.35N 96.18W
06/20/2011  E1.00 INCH       LYON               KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

JB

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
827 PM CDT MON JUN 20 2011

KSZ038-039-054-055-058-210200-
COFFEY-LYON-OSAGE-SHAWNEE-WABAUNSEE-
827 PM CDT MON JUN 20 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL SHAWNEE...WESTERN
OSAGE...LYON...NORTHWESTERN COFFEY AND EASTERN WABAUNSEE COUNTIES...

THROUGH 900 PM CDT...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE EAST AT
35 MPH ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL SHAWNEE...WESTERN OSAGE...LYON...
NORTHWESTERN COFFEY AND EASTERN WABAUNSEE COUNTIES. NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THESE STORMS ARE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
PENNY SIZE HAIL AND WINDS UP TO 40 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT COULD BE
AFFECTED INCLUDE DOVER...HARVEYVILLE...NEOSHO RAPIDS...READING...
HARTFORD...AUBURN...BURLINGAME...OSAGE CITY...LEBO...TOPEKA...
SCRANTON...MELVERN LAKE...PAULINE...FORBES FIELD...JOHN REDMOND
RESERVOIR...COFFEY COUNTY AIRPORT...BILLARD AIRPORT...BETO
JUNCTION...NEW STRAWN...BERRYTON...OLIVET...LYNDON...CARBONDALE AND
BURLINGTON. MOTORISTS ALONG THE KANSAS TURNPIKE BETWEEN MILE MARKERS
126 AND 182 COULD ALSO BE AFFECTED. MOTORISTS ALONG INTERSTATE 35
BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 128 AND 157 COULD ALSO BE AFFECTED. MOTORISTS
ALONG INTERSTATE 70 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 338 AND 355 COULD ALSO BE
AFFECTED.

A TORNADO WATCH IS ALSO IN EFFECT.

&&

LAT...LON 3817 9597 3817 9630 3908 9611 3913 9559
      3817 9572 3816 9597
TIME...MOT...LOC 0127Z 263DEG 29KT 3913 9597 3822 9613

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
831 PM CDT MON JUN 20 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0650 PM     TSTM WND DMG     NW MARYSVILLE           39.85N 96.65W
06/20/2011                   MARSHALL           KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            PAINT WAS CHIPPED OFF OF ONE SIDE OF HOUSE. 3 INCH TREE
            LIMBS DOWN. DIME SIZE HAIL ALSO REPORTED. RADAR ESTIMATED
            TIME.

&&

JB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
848 PM CDT MON JUN 20 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0845 PM     TSTM WND GST     TOPEKA                  39.05N 95.68W
06/20/2011  M52 MPH          SHAWNEE            KS   ASOS

&&

JB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
849 PM CDT MON JUN 20 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0848 PM     TSTM WND DMG     5 SW READING            38.47N 96.02W
06/20/2011                   LYON               KS   BROADCAST MEDIA

            TREE BLOWN ONTO DECK OF HOUSE.

&&

KC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
852 PM CDT MON JUN 20 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0849 PM     HAIL             5 E EMPORIA             38.40N 96.09W
06/20/2011  E1.00 INCH       LYON               KS   BROADCAST MEDIA

&&

JB