Alert archive / Kansas / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2011

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 166, NWS Topeka, KS

June 20, 2011Marshall County, Nemaha County, Pottawatomie County, Kansas

NWS Topeka, KS issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Jun 20, 2011, 7:30 PM CDT for Marshall County, Nemaha County, Pottawatomie County, Kansas. It was in force for 45 min. 1 report came from inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued, with what was reported inside it.

The facts

Issued: Jun 20, 2011, 7:30 PM CDT (00:30 UTC)
Expired: Jun 20, 2011, 8:15 PM CDT
In force: 45 min
Issued by: NWS Topeka, KS
Area: Storm-based polygon
Hail: 1.0 in
Wind: 60.0 mph

Counties Marshall County, KS, Nemaha County, KS, Pottawatomie County, KS

What was reported inside it

Time	Report	Where	Remark
Jun 20, 7:58 PM CDT	TSTM WND GST 65	5 Sw Baileyville, KS

Local storm reports filed while the alert was in force, from inside its polygon or its counties.

Did it verify

Verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow matched one storm report to this severe thunderstorm warning; the first came 28 minutes after it went out.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The watch it was issued in

The SPC watch in force over the same counties when this warning went out.

Issued	Product	Office	Lasted
Jun 20, 3:08 PM CDT	Tornado Watch	SPC	7 hr

The nearest sounding before it

Topeka, KS (KTOP), launched 00:00Z, 0.5 hours before the alert went out and 99 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 2898 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -56 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 1426 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 50 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 156 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 97 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.9
Supercell composite: 5.5

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

190 
WUUS53 KTOP 210030
SVRTOP
KSC117-131-149-210115-
/O.NEW.KTOP.SV.W.0166.110621T0030Z-110621T0115Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
730 PM CDT MON JUN 20 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TOPEKA HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
  EASTERN MARSHALL COUNTY IN NORTHEAST KANSAS...
  WESTERN NEMAHA COUNTY IN NORTHEAST KANSAS...
  NORTH CENTRAL POTTAWATOMIE COUNTY IN NORTHEAST KANSAS...

* UNTIL 815 PM CDT

* AT 728 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
  LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE
  HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THESE STORMS WERE
  LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 8 MILES SOUTHEAST OF MARYSVILLE
  TO 4 MILES SOUTHWEST OF BLAINE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  BLAINE...
  FRANKFORT...
  BEATTIE...
  LILLIS...
  VERMILLION...
  AXTELL...
  BAILEYVILLE...
  CENTRALIA...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WARNED AREA. TORNADOES CAN
DEVELOP QUICKLY FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. IF A TORNADO IS SPOTTED
ACT QUICKLY AND MOVE TO A BASEMENT OR SMALL INTERIOR ROOM.

PREPARE FOR LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND VERY HEAVY RAIN IF YOU
ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM. FOR YOUR SAFETY...TAKE COVER INSIDE A
BUILDING NOW.

STAY TUNED TO WEATHER RADIO OR LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS FOR THE LATEST
SEVERE WEATHER INFORMATION.

&&

LAT...LON 3964 9607 3940 9657 3982 9661 4001 9614
      4000 9613
TIME...MOT...LOC 0030Z 231DEG 30KT 3979 9650 3948 9645
WIND...HAIL 60MPH 1.00IN

$$

PHILLIPS

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Topeka, KS wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Jun 20, 6:42 PM CDT, 48 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jun 20, 6:42 PM CDT, 48 minutes before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
642 PM CDT MON JUN 20 2011

...UPDATE TO AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...

LATEST ANALYSIS HAD SURFACE LOW NEAR RUSSEL WITH A DRY LINE
EXTENDING FROM SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA TO NEAR ELLSWORTH. A LINE OF
ELEVATED SHOWERS HAD DEVELOPED ABOVE THE CAPPING INVERSION EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON. WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS UPPER LOW BEGINNING TO TAKE A
NEGATIVE TILT AS IT MOVES ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS. DRY LINE WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD THROUGH THE EVENING. STARTING TO GET
INITIATION OFF THE DRY LINE IN THE WESTERN CWA NEAR MCPHERSON. 0-6KM
SHEAR 40 TO 50 KTS AND WILL INCREASE AS THE UPPER LOW PROGRESSES
EASTWARD. LAPSE RATES WILL CONTINUE TO STEEPEN AS WELL. DOWNDRAFT
CAPE AVERAGING AROUND 1000-17000 J/KG. LCL HEIGHTS WERE AVERAGING
BETWEEN 1200 TO 1500 METERS. FORCING FOR ASCENT AND CONVERGENCE
ALONG THE DRY LINE WILL CONTINUE TO TOUCH OFF STORMS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. INCREASING SHEAR WILL KEEP A TORNADO THREAT. STORMS
WILL BE DISCRETE SUPERCELLS INITIALLY THEN FORMING INTO A LINE WITH
BOWING SEGMENTS.

WINDS IN EAST CENTRAL KANSAS SHOULD ABATE THIS EVENING AS THE
SURFACE LOW MOVES NORTH INTO SOUTHERN NEBRASKA SO WILL LIKELY BE
ABLE TO HAVE THE WIND ADVISORY EXPIRE AROUND 00Z.

OVERNIGHT THE STORMS SHOULD MOVE OFF TO THE EAST AS DRYLINE SPREADS
NORTHEAST INTO WESTERN MO.

ON TUESDAY WRAP AROUND SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS SOUTHEAST
NEBRASKA THEN INTO NORTHWEST IOWA IN THE AFTERNOON. BEST CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST SECTIONS OF THE
CWA. HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL BE COOLER WITH LOWER HUMIDITY. HIGHS WILL
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S TO THE MID 80S. 53

AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY...CANNOT RULE OUT
A SHOWER POSSIBILITY IN THE FAR NORTHEAST COUNTY WARNING (CWA) AS
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO WRAP IN BEHIND IT. HOWEVER...STILL FEEL THE
POTENTIAL IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO WARRANT A POP AND CONTINUED A DRY
FORECAST TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. WITH DRIER AIR AND DECREASING
CLOUDS MOST AREAS TUESDAY NIGHT...IT WILL BE A COOLER NIGHT WITH
LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. WITH A GUSTY NORTHWEST WIND AND
MOST CLOUDS MAINLY CONFINED TO THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE
CWA...HIGHS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S NORTHEAST TO THE MIDDLE
80S IN THE ABILENE AND EMPORIA AREAS. AFTER ONE MORE NIGHT IN THE
UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S WEDNESDAY NIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO
GRADUALLY INCREASE THURSDAY AS UPSTREAM UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TAKES
PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS REGION. HIGHS
THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE 80S WITH THE 80S AND A FEW LOW 90S THE RULE
ON THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS PATTERN WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR A SERIES OF
WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVES TO MOVES EAST FROM THE ROCKIES AND INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS REGION. AT THE SAME TIME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
ALSO RETURN FROM THE SOUTH AND  POOL ACROSS THE AREA. THIS UNSETTLED
PATTERN WILL ALLOW FOR SEVERAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WITH THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF EACH OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. 63

&&

.AVIATION...

LINE OF CONVECTION WILL MOVE THROUGH THE TAF SITES THIS EVENING.
OF FIRST CONCERN WILL BE MHK FOR THE FIRST COUPLE OF HOURS OF THE
PERIOD. LINE OF STORMS WILL MOVE THROUGH MHK WITH WIND GUSTS OVER
50 KTS POSSIBLE AS WELL AS HAIL. THIS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE IN THE
TOP AND FOE AREAS AFTER 01Z AS THE LINE ACCELERATES. MVFR GIGS AND
VSBYS EXPECTED WITH THE CONVECTION AND BRIEFLY DOWN TO IFR VSBYS
WILL BE COMMON. AFTER LINE MOVES THROUGH VFR EXPECTED BUT STRATUS
WILL WRAP BACK INTO THE SITES BUT REMAINING VFR.

53

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

Hazardous weather outlook, Jun 20, 3:41 PM CDT, 3 hours 49 minutes before

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
341 PM CDT MON JUN 20 2011

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-212045-
REPUBLIC-WASHINGTON-MARSHALL-NEMAHA-BROWN-CLOUD-CLAY-RILEY-
POTTAWATOMIE-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-OTTAWA-DICKINSON-GEARY-MORRIS-
WABAUNSEE-SHAWNEE-DOUGLAS-LYON-OSAGE-FRANKLIN-COFFEY-ANDERSON-
341 PM CDT MON JUN 20 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL...NORTH
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LIKELY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA. THE STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL BE STRONG TO
SEVERE. LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND TORNADOES ARE ALL POSSIBLE.

STRONG WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH WILL CONTINUE ACROSS EAST CENTRAL KANSAS
UNTIL EARLY EVENING WITH GUSTS AROUND 45 MPH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN ON TUESDAY. HOWEVER
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE AGAIN BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED THROUGH THIS EVENING.

In the hours before

Local storm report, Jun 20, 6:04 PM CDT, 1 hour 26 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
604 PM CDT MON JUN 20 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0546 PM     HAIL             2 S CLYDE               39.56N 97.41W
06/20/2011  E0.75 INCH       CLOUD              KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

JB

Local storm report, Jun 20, 6:08 PM CDT, 1 hour 22 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
608 PM CDT MON JUN 20 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0602 PM     HAIL             N WAKEFIELD             39.22N 97.02W
06/20/2011  E0.88 INCH       CLAY               KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

JB

Local storm report, Jun 20, 6:45 PM CDT, 45 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
645 PM CDT MON JUN 20 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0644 PM     HAIL             RILEY                   39.30N 96.83W
06/20/2011  E1.25 INCH       RILEY              KS   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

MRC

Local storm report, Jun 20, 6:50 PM CDT, 40 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
650 PM CDT MON JUN 20 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0650 PM     HAIL             1 SSE RANDOLPH          39.42N 96.76W
06/20/2011  E0.88 INCH       RILEY              KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

JB

Local storm report, Jun 20, 7:05 PM CDT, 25 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
705 PM CDT MON JUN 20 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0705 PM     TSTM WND DMG     BURDICK                 38.56N 96.85W
06/20/2011                   MORRIS             KS   CO-OP OBSERVER

            3 TO 4 INCH TREE LIMBS DOWN

&&

JB

Local storm report, Jun 20, 7:13 PM CDT, 17 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
713 PM CDT MON JUN 20 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0712 PM     TSTM WND GST     3 NW MANHATTAN          39.21N 96.61W
06/20/2011  E58 MPH          RILEY              KS   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

MRC

The office that day

Everything else NWS Topeka, KS issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Jun 20, 7:05 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TOP	Geary, Morris, Wabaunsee	40 min
Jun 20, 7:27 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TOP	Lyon, Morris, Riley, Wabaunsee	48 min
Jun 20, 7:44 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TOP	Jackson, Nemaha, Pottawatomie, Shawnee	46 min
Jun 20, 8:02 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TOP	Brown, Nemaha	43 min
Jun 20, 8:07 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	TOP	Coffey, Lyon, Osage, Shawnee, Wabaunsee	23 min
Jun 20, 8:18 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TOP	Brown, Jackson, Nemaha	42 min
Jun 20, 8:27 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	TOP	Coffey, Lyon, Osage, Shawnee	33 min
Jun 20, 8:46 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TOP	Coffey, Osage	44 min
Jun 20, 8:52 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TOP	Douglas, Jackson, Jefferson, Osage, Shawnee	38 min
Jun 20, 9:23 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	TOP	Anderson, Douglas, Franklin, Jefferson	22 min
Jun 20, 9:44 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	TOP	Anderson, Franklin	31 min

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Kansas, 2011 Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2011

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; local storm reports from the same archive; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive.