Severe Thunderstorm Warning 164, NWS Topeka, KS

867 
WWUS53 KTOP 210031
SVSTOP

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
731 PM CDT MON JUN 20 2011

KSC061-127-197-210045-
/O.CON.KTOP.SV.W.0164.000000T0000Z-110621T0045Z/
MORRIS-GEARY-WABAUNSEE-
731 PM CDT MON JUN 20 2011

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 745 PM CDT
FOR SOUTHWESTERN WABAUNSEE...SOUTHEASTERN GEARY AND EASTERN MORRIS
COUNTIES...

AT 728 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING
WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM 4 MILES WEST OF ALMA TO 11 MILES SOUTHEAST OF COUNCIL
GROVE...MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF SOUTHWESTERN WABAUNSEE...SOUTHEASTERN GEARY AND
EASTERN MORRIS COUNTIES...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WARNED AREA. TORNADOES CAN
DEVELOP QUICKLY FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. IF A TORNADO IS SPOTTED
ACT QUICKLY AND MOVE TO A BASEMENT OR SMALL INTERIOR ROOM.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS FOR THE
LATEST SEVERE WEATHER INFORMATION.

&&

LAT...LON 3905 9666 3906 9650 3904 9650 3904 9639
      3907 9639 3907 9635 3852 9636 3852 9665
TIME...MOT...LOC 0031Z 268DEG 31KT 3904 9632 3854 9632
WIND...HAIL 60MPH <.75IN

$$

BLAIR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
642 PM CDT MON JUN 20 2011

...UPDATE TO AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...

LATEST ANALYSIS HAD SURFACE LOW NEAR RUSSEL WITH A DRY LINE
EXTENDING FROM SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA TO NEAR ELLSWORTH. A LINE OF
ELEVATED SHOWERS HAD DEVELOPED ABOVE THE CAPPING INVERSION EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON. WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS UPPER LOW BEGINNING TO TAKE A
NEGATIVE TILT AS IT MOVES ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS. DRY LINE WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD THROUGH THE EVENING. STARTING TO GET
INITIATION OFF THE DRY LINE IN THE WESTERN CWA NEAR MCPHERSON. 0-6KM
SHEAR 40 TO 50 KTS AND WILL INCREASE AS THE UPPER LOW PROGRESSES
EASTWARD. LAPSE RATES WILL CONTINUE TO STEEPEN AS WELL. DOWNDRAFT
CAPE AVERAGING AROUND 1000-17000 J/KG. LCL HEIGHTS WERE AVERAGING
BETWEEN 1200 TO 1500 METERS. FORCING FOR ASCENT AND CONVERGENCE
ALONG THE DRY LINE WILL CONTINUE TO TOUCH OFF STORMS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. INCREASING SHEAR WILL KEEP A TORNADO THREAT. STORMS
WILL BE DISCRETE SUPERCELLS INITIALLY THEN FORMING INTO A LINE WITH
BOWING SEGMENTS.

WINDS IN EAST CENTRAL KANSAS SHOULD ABATE THIS EVENING AS THE
SURFACE LOW MOVES NORTH INTO SOUTHERN NEBRASKA SO WILL LIKELY BE
ABLE TO HAVE THE WIND ADVISORY EXPIRE AROUND 00Z.

OVERNIGHT THE STORMS SHOULD MOVE OFF TO THE EAST AS DRYLINE SPREADS
NORTHEAST INTO WESTERN MO.

ON TUESDAY WRAP AROUND SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS SOUTHEAST
NEBRASKA THEN INTO NORTHWEST IOWA IN THE AFTERNOON. BEST CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST SECTIONS OF THE
CWA. HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL BE COOLER WITH LOWER HUMIDITY. HIGHS WILL
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S TO THE MID 80S. 53

AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY...CANNOT RULE OUT
A SHOWER POSSIBILITY IN THE FAR NORTHEAST COUNTY WARNING (CWA) AS
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO WRAP IN BEHIND IT. HOWEVER...STILL FEEL THE
POTENTIAL IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO WARRANT A POP AND CONTINUED A DRY
FORECAST TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. WITH DRIER AIR AND DECREASING
CLOUDS MOST AREAS TUESDAY NIGHT...IT WILL BE A COOLER NIGHT WITH
LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. WITH A GUSTY NORTHWEST WIND AND
MOST CLOUDS MAINLY CONFINED TO THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE
CWA...HIGHS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S NORTHEAST TO THE MIDDLE
80S IN THE ABILENE AND EMPORIA AREAS. AFTER ONE MORE NIGHT IN THE
UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S WEDNESDAY NIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO
GRADUALLY INCREASE THURSDAY AS UPSTREAM UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TAKES
PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS REGION. HIGHS
THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE 80S WITH THE 80S AND A FEW LOW 90S THE RULE
ON THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS PATTERN WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR A SERIES OF
WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVES TO MOVES EAST FROM THE ROCKIES AND INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS REGION. AT THE SAME TIME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
ALSO RETURN FROM THE SOUTH AND  POOL ACROSS THE AREA. THIS UNSETTLED
PATTERN WILL ALLOW FOR SEVERAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WITH THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF EACH OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. 63

&&

.AVIATION...

LINE OF CONVECTION WILL MOVE THROUGH THE TAF SITES THIS EVENING.
OF FIRST CONCERN WILL BE MHK FOR THE FIRST COUPLE OF HOURS OF THE
PERIOD. LINE OF STORMS WILL MOVE THROUGH MHK WITH WIND GUSTS OVER
50 KTS POSSIBLE AS WELL AS HAIL. THIS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE IN THE
TOP AND FOE AREAS AFTER 01Z AS THE LINE ACCELERATES. MVFR GIGS AND
VSBYS EXPECTED WITH THE CONVECTION AND BRIEFLY DOWN TO IFR VSBYS
WILL BE COMMON. AFTER LINE MOVES THROUGH VFR EXPECTED BUT STRATUS
WILL WRAP BACK INTO THE SITES BUT REMAINING VFR.

53

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
341 PM CDT MON JUN 20 2011

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-212045-
REPUBLIC-WASHINGTON-MARSHALL-NEMAHA-BROWN-CLOUD-CLAY-RILEY-
POTTAWATOMIE-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-OTTAWA-DICKINSON-GEARY-MORRIS-
WABAUNSEE-SHAWNEE-DOUGLAS-LYON-OSAGE-FRANKLIN-COFFEY-ANDERSON-
341 PM CDT MON JUN 20 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL...NORTH
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LIKELY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA. THE STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL BE STRONG TO
SEVERE. LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND TORNADOES ARE ALL POSSIBLE.

STRONG WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH WILL CONTINUE ACROSS EAST CENTRAL KANSAS
UNTIL EARLY EVENING WITH GUSTS AROUND 45 MPH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN ON TUESDAY. HOWEVER
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE AGAIN BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED THROUGH THIS EVENING.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
557 PM CDT MON JUN 20 2011

KSZ008-009-202330-
REPUBLIC-WASHINGTON-
557 PM CDT MON JUN 20 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN REPUBLIC AND
NORTHWESTERN WASHINGTON COUNTIES...

THROUGH 630 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL MOVE NORTH AT 30 MPH
ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN REPUBLIC AND NORTHWESTERN WASHINGTON
COUNTIES. NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THIS STORM
IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY SIZE HAIL. SOME LOCATIONS THAT COULD BE
AFFECTED INCLUDE MAHASKA.

A TORNADO WATCH IS ALSO IN EFFECT.

&&

LAT...LON 4000 9745 4000 9721 3981 9728 3984 9751
      4001 9747 4001 9745
TIME...MOT...LOC 2258Z 192DEG 27KT 3992 9737

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
604 PM CDT MON JUN 20 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0546 PM     HAIL             2 S CLYDE               39.56N 97.41W
06/20/2011  E0.75 INCH       CLOUD              KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

JB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
608 PM CDT MON JUN 20 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0602 PM     HAIL             N WAKEFIELD             39.22N 97.02W
06/20/2011  E0.88 INCH       CLAY               KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

JB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
645 PM CDT MON JUN 20 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0644 PM     HAIL             RILEY                   39.30N 96.83W
06/20/2011  E1.25 INCH       RILEY              KS   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

MRC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
650 PM CDT MON JUN 20 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0650 PM     HAIL             1 SSE RANDOLPH          39.42N 96.76W
06/20/2011  E0.88 INCH       RILEY              KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

JB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
705 PM CDT MON JUN 20 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0705 PM     TSTM WND DMG     BURDICK                 38.56N 96.85W
06/20/2011                   MORRIS             KS   CO-OP OBSERVER

            3 TO 4 INCH TREE LIMBS DOWN

&&

JB