Severe Thunderstorm Warning 135, NWS Springfield, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
941 AM CDT FRI MAY 8 2009

.UPDATE...

UPDATED TO EXTEND HIGH WIND WARNING EASTWARD THROUGH MUCH OF THE
REGION. STRONG WINDS OF 60 TO 80 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE BEHIND THE
LINE OF SEVERE STORMS THIS MORNING.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS THE SEVERE MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM
THAT WILL IMPACT THE REGION THIS MORNING.

REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THIS MCS IS IN ITS BEGINNING
STAGES ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS. LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS AND SHORT
TERM GUIDANCE DATA INDICATE AN ENVIRONMENT VERY FAVORABLE FOR A
FORWARD PROPAGATING MCS. THIS SHOULD FAVOR THESE STORMS
ACCELERATING TO THE EAST SOUTHEAST INTO SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND
EXTREME SOUTHWEST MISSOURI SHORTLY BEFORE SUNRISE. THESE STORMS
WILL BE PROLIFIC WIND PRODUCERS...WITH 70 MPH WIND GUSTS EASILY
ATTAINABLE. ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND SHEAR ALSO EXIST FOR SOME LARGE
HAIL. THE ENVIRONMENT WILL ALSO BE SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE FOR
MESOVORTICES AND POSSIBLE TORNADOES. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THIS
MCS WILL RACE ACROSS SOUTHERN MISSOURI...POSSIBLY CLEARING THE
FORECAST AREA BY 18Z. ONE GOOD THING ABOUT THIS TYPE OF MCS IS
THAT THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL NOT LAST ALL THAT LONG. THE BAD
NEWS IS THAT RAINFALL RATES WITH THE LINE WILL BE RATHER INTENSE.
WILL THEREFORE LEAVE THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH INTACT. NOT SURE HOW
MUCH WE WILL WARM UP THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE WAKE PRECIPITATION
AND CLOUD COVER...BUT SOME BREAKS OUT WEST MAY ALLOW SOME
AFTERNOON WARMING.

WE MAY SEE A LEFT OVER SHOWER OR STORM TONIGHT ACROSS SOUTHERN
MISSOURI...BUT A PASSING COLD FRONT SHOULD TEND TO SHIFT MOST IF
NOT ALL ACTIVITY INTO ARKANSAS. CANNOT RULE OUT A SHOWER OR
PERHAPS AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM SATURDAY OVER SOUTHERN
MISSOURI...BUT THINK MOST AREAS WILL BE DRY. WE MAY SEE A SLIGHTLY
BETTER SHOT AT SHOWER ACTIVITY ON SUNDAY AS UPPER LEVEL ENERGY
TRAVERSES THE AREA. NOT LOOKING AT MUCH INSTABILITY...SO THINK
LIGHT SHOWERS WILL BE ABOUT ALL WE CAN MUSTER. MAINLY DRY WEATHER
AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO START NEXT WORK WEEK
BEFORE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE AGAIN BY MIDWEEK.

SCHAUMANN

&&

.AVIATION...

A SEVERE COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS IS CURRENTLY APPROACHING
SOUTHWEST MISSOURI AND WILL PASS THROUGH KJLN AND KSGF BETWEEN 13
AND 16Z. IFR AND BRIEF LIFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THE
STORMS. VERY STRONG WINDS WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY THE STORMS WITH
GUSTS OVER 40 KNOTS POSSIBLE. ONCE THE MAIN LINE PASSES...RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LAST A FEW MORE HOURS. EXPECT MVFR AND
OCCASIONAL IFR CONDITIONS WITH THIS ACTIVITY. FLIGHT CONDITIONS
WILL IMPROVE LATER THIS AFTERNOON. WE MAY SEE A STRATUS DECK
DEVELOP THIS EVENING BEHIND A PASSING COLD FRONT...BUT CONFIDENCE
IS TOO LOW TO GO WITH IFR CEILINGS AT THIS TIME.

SCHAUMANN

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR MOZ066>068-
     070-071-077>083-088>098-101>106.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MOZ077-079>083-
     088>098-101>106.

KS...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR KSZ073-097-
     101.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR KSZ097-101.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
934 AM CDT FRI MAY 8 2009

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-091445-
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON-
ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-
LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON-
LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE-
TANEY-OZARK-OREGON-
934 AM CDT FRI MAY 8 2009

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND HIGH WINDS EXPECTED THIS MORNING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI
OZARKS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

  WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED:

DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WIND GUSTS TO 80 MPH. HAIL TO THE SIZE OF
GOLF BALLS. ISOLATED TORNADOES. HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLASH
FLOODING.

  AREAS AFFECTED AND TIMING:

A SQUALL LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE THROUGH SOUTHERN
MISSOURI THIS MORNING.

  DISCUSSION:

AN INTENSE SQUALL LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
RAPIDLY ACROSS SOUTHERN MISSOURI THIS MORNING. THE ATMOSPHERE AHEAD
OF THIS LINE WILL REMAIN VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE. SEVERE WEATHER
WILL CONTINUE WITH THIS LINE OF STORMS AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.
INTENSE STRAIGHT LINE WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG
WITH HAIL TO THE SIZE OF GOLF BALLS. GIVEN STRONG LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR...ISOLATED TORNADOES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SQUALL LINE ARE
POSSIBLE.

IN ADDITION...DAMAGING WIND GUSTS OF 60 TO 80 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE
FOR AWHILE BEHIND THE LINE OF STORMS.

WHILE THIS LINE OF STORMS WILL MOVE QUICKLY ACROSS THE AREA THIS
MORNING...HIGH RAINFALL RATES ARE EXPECTED DUE TO THE VERY MOIST
ATMOSPHERE IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. RAINFALL RATES IN EXCESS OF
ONE TO TWO INCHES PER HOUR WILL BE POSSIBLE...WHICH WILL LEAD TO
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS AND LOW WATER
CROSSINGS.

THUNDERSTORMS MAY LINGER NEAR THE ARKANSAS BORDER THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...HOWEVER THE OVERALL THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER AND
HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE BY THIS AFTERNOON.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE NEEDED ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA THIS
MORNING.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT...ALONG WITH
OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/SGF(ALL LOWERCASE)

WFO PAH

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>