Severe Thunderstorm Warning 123, NWS Springfield, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
655 AM CDT FRI MAY 8 2009

...UPDATE TO AVIATION...

...MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE DISCUSSION...

.UPDATE...

THE MCS ENTERING THE WESTERN CWA HAS NOW BECOME FORWARD
PROPAGATING WITH ITS FORWARD MOTION APPROACHING OR EXCEEDING 70
MPH. SEVERAL REPORTS OF 70 TO 80 MPH WINDS HAVE BEEN RECEIVED FROM
SOUTHEAST KANSAS. SEE NO REASON FOR THIS TREND NOT TO CONTINUE AS
THIS LINE BLASTS THROUGH SOUTHWEST MISSOURI GIVEN LATEST SHORT
TERM GUIDANCE. THE ATMOSPHERE CONTINUES TO SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL
FOR MESOVORTICES AND PERHAPS BRIEF TORNADOES AS PLENTY OF AMBIENT
AND STORM SCALE VERTICAL VORTICITY SOURCES ARE PRESENT. HAIL WILL
ALSO BE A CONTINUED THREAT GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY AND
SHEAR PRESENT. EXTREME RAINFALL RATES...IN SOME CASES EXCEEDING
THREE INCHES PER HOUR...WILL ALSO POSE A SIGNIFICANT FLASH FLOOD
THREAT.

SCHAUMANN

&&

.DISCUSSION...

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS THE SEVERE MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM
THAT WILL IMPACT THE REGION THIS MORNING.

REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THIS MCS IS IN ITS BEGINNING
STAGES ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS. LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS AND SHORT
TERM GUIDANCE DATA INDICATE AN ENVIRONMENT VERY FAVORABLE FOR A
FORWARD PROPAGATING MCS. THIS SHOULD FAVOR THESE STORMS
ACCELERATING TO THE EAST SOUTHEAST INTO SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND
EXTREME SOUTHWEST MISSOURI SHORTLY BEFORE SUNRISE. THESE STORMS
WILL BE PROLIFIC WIND PRODUCERS...WITH 70 MPH WIND GUSTS EASILY
ATTAINABLE. ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND SHEAR ALSO EXIST FOR SOME LARGE
HAIL. THE ENVIRONMENT WILL ALSO BE SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE FOR
MESOVORTICES AND POSSIBLE TORNADOES. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THIS
MCS WILL RACE ACROSS SOUTHERN MISSOURI...POSSIBLY CLEARING THE
FORECAST AREA BY 18Z. ONE GOOD THING ABOUT THIS TYPE OF MCS IS
THAT THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL NOT LAST ALL THAT LONG. THE BAD
NEWS IS THAT RAINFALL RATES WITH THE LINE WILL BE RATHER INTENSE.
WILL THEREFORE LEAVE THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH INTACT. NOT SURE HOW
MUCH WE WILL WARM UP THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE WAKE PRECIPITATION
AND CLOUD COVER...BUT SOME BREAKS OUT WEST MAY ALLOW SOME
AFTERNOON WARMING.

WE MAY SEE A LEFT OVER SHOWER OR STORM TONIGHT ACROSS SOUTHERN
MISSOURI...BUT A PASSING COLD FRONT SHOULD TEND TO SHIFT MOST IF
NOT ALL ACTIVITY INTO ARKANSAS. CANNOT RULE OUT A SHOWER OR
PERHAPS AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM SATURDAY OVER SOUTHERN
MISSOURI...BUT THINK MOST AREAS WILL BE DRY. WE MAY SEE A SLIGHTLY
BETTER SHOT AT SHOWER ACTIVITY ON SUNDAY AS UPPER LEVEL ENERGY
TRAVERSES THE AREA. NOT LOOKING AT MUCH INSTABILITY...SO THINK
LIGHT SHOWERS WILL BE ABOUT ALL WE CAN MUSTER. MAINLY DRY WEATHER
AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO START NEXT WORK WEEK
BEFORE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE AGAIN BY MIDWEEK.

SCHAUMANN

&&

.AVIATION...

A SEVERE COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS IS CURRENTLY APPROACHING
SOUTHWEST MISSOURI AND WILL PASS THROUGH KJLN AND KSGF BETWEEN 13
AND 16Z. IFR AND BRIEF LIFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THE
STORMS. VERY STRONG WINDS WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY THE STORMS WITH
GUSTS OVER 40 KNOTS POSSIBLE. ONCE THE MAIN LINE PASSES...RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LAST A FEW MORE HOURS. EXPECT MVFR AND
OCCASIONAL IFR CONDITIONS WITH THIS ACTIVITY. FLIGHT CONDITIONS
WILL IMPROVE LATER THIS AFTERNOON. WE MAY SEE A STRATUS DECK
DEVELOP THIS EVENING BEHIND A PASSING COLD FRONT...BUT CONFIDENCE
IS TOO LOW TO GO WITH IFR CEILINGS AT THIS TIME.

SCHAUMANN

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR MOZ077-079>083-
     088>098-101>106.

KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR KSZ097-101.

&&

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
744 AM CDT FRI MAY 08 2009

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0721 AM     FLASH FLOOD      FRONTENAC               37.46N  94.69W
05/08/2009                   CRAWFORD           KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            NUMEROUS STREETS FLOODED

&&

RUNNELS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
745 AM CDT FRI MAY 08 2009

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0741 AM     NON-TSTM WND DMG CARL JUNCTION           37.18N  94.57W
05/08/2009                   JASPER             MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

            18 INCH DIAMETER MATURE OAK TREES DOWN

&&

KARDELL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
746 AM CDT FRI MAY 08 2009

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0730 AM     TSTM WND GST     DIAMOND                 37.00N  94.32W
05/08/2009  E70 MPH          NEWTON             MO   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            NUMEROUS TREES DAMAGE AND ROOF DAMAGE TO A METAL
            BUILDING.

&&

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