Severe Thunderstorm Warning 117, NWS Springfield, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
300 AM CDT FRI MAY 8 2009

.DISCUSSION...

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS THE SEVERE MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM
THAT WILL IMPACT THE REGION THIS MORNING.

REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THIS MCS IS IN ITS BEGINNING
STAGES ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS. LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS AND SHORT
TERM GUIDANCE DATA INDICATE AN ENVIRONMENT VERY FAVORABLE FOR A
FORWARD PROPAGATING MCS. THIS SHOULD FAVOR THESE STORMS
ACCELERATING TO THE EAST SOUTHEAST INTO SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND
EXTREME SOUTHWEST MISSOURI SHORTLY BEFORE SUNRISE. THESE STORMS
WILL BE PROLIFIC WIND PRODUCERS...WITH 70 MPH WIND GUSTS EASILY
ATTAINABLE. ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND SHEAR ALSO EXIST FOR SOME LARGE
HAIL. THE ENVIRONMENT WILL ALSO BE SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE FOR
MESOVORTICES AND POSSIBLE TORNADOES. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THIS
MCS WILL RACE ACROSS SOUTHERN MISSOURI...POSSIBLY CLEARING THE
FORECAST AREA BY 18Z. ONE GOOD THING ABOUT THIS TYPE OF MCS IS
THAT THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL NOT LAST ALL THAT LONG. THE BAD
NEWS IS THAT RAINFALL RATES WITH THE LINE WILL BE RATHER INTENSE.
WILL THEREFORE LEAVE THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH INTACT. NOT SURE HOW
MUCH WE WILL WARM UP THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE WAKE PRECIPITATION
AND CLOUD COVER...BUT SOME BREAKS OUT WEST MAY ALLOW SOME
AFTERNOON WARMING.

WE MAY SEE A LEFT OVER SHOWER OR STORM TONIGHT ACROSS SOUTHERN
MISSOURI...BUT A PASSING COLD FRONT SHOULD TEND TO SHIFT MOST IF
NOT ALL ACTIVITY INTO ARKANSAS. CANNOT RULE OUT A SHOWER OR
PERHAPS AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM SATURDAY OVER SOUTHERN
MISSOURI...BUT THINK MOST AREAS WILL BE DRY. WE MAY SEE A SLIGHTLY
BETTER SHOT AT SHOWER ACTIVITY ON SUNDAY AS UPPER LEVEL ENERGY
TRAVERSES THE AREA. NOT LOOKING AT MUCH INSTABILITY...SO THINK
LIGHT SHOWERS WILL BE ABOUT ALL WE CAN MUSTER. MAINLY DRY WEATHER
AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO START NEXT WORK WEEK
BEFORE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE AGAIN BY MIDWEEK.

SCHAUMANN

&&

.AVIATION...

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH ABOUT 10Z WITH A FEW
PATCHY AREAS OF HIGH END MVFR POSSIBLE. A LINE OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS IS THEN EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE
WEST LATE TONIGHT AND MOVE THROUGH SOUTHWEST MISSOURI FRIDAY
MORNING. CONFIDENCE IN THIS SCENARIO IS HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IFR
CONDITIONS IN A TEMPO GROUP AT THIS TIME. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT
THESE STORMS WILL LIKELY CONTAIN VERY STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS. WILL
AMEND TAFS LATER ON TONIGHT TO INCLUDE STORMS IN A PREVAILING
GROUP ONCE TIMING BECOMES A BIT MORE CLEAR. MVFR OR POSSIBLY IFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE WAKE OF THE STORMS FOR A TIME
BEFORE VFR CONDITIONS RETURN LATER IN THE AFTERNOON.

SCHAUMANN

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR MOZ077-079>083-
     088>098-101>106.

KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR KSZ097-101.

&&

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