Severe Thunderstorm Warning 111, NWS Springfield, MO

000 
WWUS53 KSGF 081049
SVSSGF

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
549 AM CDT FRI MAY 8 2009

MOC015-141-081115-
/O.CON.KSGF.SV.W.0111.000000T0000Z-090508T1115Z/
BENTON MO-MORGAN MO-
549 AM CDT FRI MAY 8 2009

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 615 AM CDT
FOR NORTHERN BENTON AND NORTHERN MORGAN COUNTIES...

AT 548 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM NEAR EDMONSON...OR 13 MILES NORTHEAST OF
WARSAW...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH. THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  COLE CAMP BY 555 AM CDT.
  STOVER BY 610 AM CDT.

THE TOWN OF CROCKERVILLE IS IN THE PATH OF THIS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON CDT FRIDAY
FOR SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND SOUTHERN MISSOURI.

&&

LAT...LON 3848 9277 3825 9330 3836 9353 3837 9352
      3854 9320 3854 9308 3862 9307 3869 9294
TIME...MOT...LOC 1049Z 237DEG 28KT 3838 9319

$$

FOSTER

000 
WWUS53 KSGF 081111
SVSSGF

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
611 AM CDT FRI MAY 8 2009

MOC015-141-081120-
/O.EXP.KSGF.SV.W.0111.000000T0000Z-090508T1115Z/
BENTON MO-MORGAN MO-
611 AM CDT FRI MAY 8 2009

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHERN BENTON AND NORTHERN
MORGAN COUNTIES EXPIRES AT 615 AM CDT...

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THAT THE SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM THAT PROMPTED THE WARNING HAD WEAKENED AND WAS NO LONGER
SEVERE...THUS THE WARNING HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHERN MORGAN 
COUNTY.

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT MORGAN AND BENTON COUNTIES 
THROUGH 9 AM. 

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON CDT FRIDAY
FOR SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND SOUTHERN MISSOURI.

LAT...LON 3848 9277 3825 9330 3836 9353 3837 9352
      3854 9320 3854 9308 3862 9307 3869 9294
TIME...MOT...LOC 1110Z 237DEG 28KT 3847 9302

$$

FOSTER

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
300 AM CDT FRI MAY 8 2009

.DISCUSSION...

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS THE SEVERE MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM
THAT WILL IMPACT THE REGION THIS MORNING.

REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THIS MCS IS IN ITS BEGINNING
STAGES ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS. LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS AND SHORT
TERM GUIDANCE DATA INDICATE AN ENVIRONMENT VERY FAVORABLE FOR A
FORWARD PROPAGATING MCS. THIS SHOULD FAVOR THESE STORMS
ACCELERATING TO THE EAST SOUTHEAST INTO SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND
EXTREME SOUTHWEST MISSOURI SHORTLY BEFORE SUNRISE. THESE STORMS
WILL BE PROLIFIC WIND PRODUCERS...WITH 70 MPH WIND GUSTS EASILY
ATTAINABLE. ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND SHEAR ALSO EXIST FOR SOME LARGE
HAIL. THE ENVIRONMENT WILL ALSO BE SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE FOR
MESOVORTICES AND POSSIBLE TORNADOES. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THIS
MCS WILL RACE ACROSS SOUTHERN MISSOURI...POSSIBLY CLEARING THE
FORECAST AREA BY 18Z. ONE GOOD THING ABOUT THIS TYPE OF MCS IS
THAT THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL NOT LAST ALL THAT LONG. THE BAD
NEWS IS THAT RAINFALL RATES WITH THE LINE WILL BE RATHER INTENSE.
WILL THEREFORE LEAVE THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH INTACT. NOT SURE HOW
MUCH WE WILL WARM UP THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE WAKE PRECIPITATION
AND CLOUD COVER...BUT SOME BREAKS OUT WEST MAY ALLOW SOME
AFTERNOON WARMING.

WE MAY SEE A LEFT OVER SHOWER OR STORM TONIGHT ACROSS SOUTHERN
MISSOURI...BUT A PASSING COLD FRONT SHOULD TEND TO SHIFT MOST IF
NOT ALL ACTIVITY INTO ARKANSAS. CANNOT RULE OUT A SHOWER OR
PERHAPS AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM SATURDAY OVER SOUTHERN
MISSOURI...BUT THINK MOST AREAS WILL BE DRY. WE MAY SEE A SLIGHTLY
BETTER SHOT AT SHOWER ACTIVITY ON SUNDAY AS UPPER LEVEL ENERGY
TRAVERSES THE AREA. NOT LOOKING AT MUCH INSTABILITY...SO THINK
LIGHT SHOWERS WILL BE ABOUT ALL WE CAN MUSTER. MAINLY DRY WEATHER
AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO START NEXT WORK WEEK
BEFORE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE AGAIN BY MIDWEEK.

SCHAUMANN

&&

.AVIATION...

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH ABOUT 10Z WITH A FEW
PATCHY AREAS OF HIGH END MVFR POSSIBLE. A LINE OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS IS THEN EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE
WEST LATE TONIGHT AND MOVE THROUGH SOUTHWEST MISSOURI FRIDAY
MORNING. CONFIDENCE IN THIS SCENARIO IS HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IFR
CONDITIONS IN A TEMPO GROUP AT THIS TIME. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT
THESE STORMS WILL LIKELY CONTAIN VERY STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS. WILL
AMEND TAFS LATER ON TONIGHT TO INCLUDE STORMS IN A PREVAILING
GROUP ONCE TIMING BECOMES A BIT MORE CLEAR. MVFR OR POSSIBLY IFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE WAKE OF THE STORMS FOR A TIME
BEFORE VFR CONDITIONS RETURN LATER IN THE AFTERNOON.

SCHAUMANN

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR MOZ077-079>083-
     088>098-101>106.

KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR KSZ097-101.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
435 AM CDT FRI MAY 8 2009

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-090945-
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON-
ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-
LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON-
LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE-
TANEY-OZARK-OREGON-
435 AM CDT FRI MAY 8 2009

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THIS MORNING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI
OZARKS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

  WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED:

  DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH.
  HAIL TO THE SIZE OF GOLF BALLS.
  ISOLATED TORNADOES.
  HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING.

  AREAS AFFECTED AND TIMING:

 A SQUALL LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE INTO EXTREME SOUTHEAST
 KANSAS AND WESTERN MISSOURI AFTER 530 AM. THIS LINE WILL
 CONTINUE TO ACCELERATE EASTWARD INTO THE MISSOURI OZARKS...
 REACHING THE HIGHWAY 65 CORRIDOR AFTER 700 AM AND THE HIGHWAY 63
 CORRIDOR AFTER 830 AM.

  DISCUSSION:

 AN INTENSE...SQUALL LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO
 RAPIDLY DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING
 HOURS. THE ATMOSPHERE AHEAD OF THIS LINE WILL REMAIN VERY MOIST
 AND UNSTABLE. WITH STRONG WIND SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
 SYSTEM...THIS LINE OF STORMS WILL MOVE RAPIDLY EAST
 SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH CENTRAL AND EASTERN KANSAS AND INTO WESTERN
 PORTIONS OF THE OUTLOOK AREA PRIOR TO SUNRISE.

 SEVERE WEATHER IS LIKELY WITH THIS LINE OF STORMS AS IT MOVES
 THROUGH EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND THE MISSOURI OZARKS BETWEEN
 500 AM AND 1000 AM. INTENSE STRAIGHT LINE WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH
 CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH HAIL TO THE SIZE OF GOLF BALLS. GIVEN
 STRONG LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR...ISOLATED TORNADOES EMBEDDED WITHIN
 THE SQUALL LINE ARE POSSIBLE.

 WHILE THIS LINE OF STORMS WILL MOVE QUICKLY ACROSS THE AREA THIS
 MORNING...HIGH RAINFALL RATES ARE EXPECTED DUE TO THE VERY MOIST
 ATMOSPHERE IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. RAINFALL RATES IN EXCESS
 OF ONE TO TWO INCHES PER HOUR WILL BE POSSIBLE...WHICH WILL LEAD
 TO LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS AND LOW WATER
 CROSSINGS.

 THUNDERSTORMS MAY LINGER NEAR THE ARKANSAS BORDER THIS AFTERNOON
 AND EVENING...HOWEVER THE OVERALL THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER AND
 HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE BY THIS AFTERNOON.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

 THUNDERSTORMS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY THROUGH
 THURSDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

 SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE NEEDED ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA THIS
 MORNING BEGINNING AT 530 AM ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND
 WESTERN MISSOURI AND AFTER 700 AM FOR AREAS NEAR THE HIGHWAY 65
 CORRIDOR.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT...ALONG WITH
OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/SGF(ALL LOWERCASE)

GAGAN/SCHAUMANN